Premier League Odds: Predictions for Toffees, Red Devils, and Blues, and Best Liverpool O/U Goals Pick

The premise of “wake me up in December,” otherwise known as the Rip Van Winkle strategy, just isn’t going to fly for English football gamblers any more.

In fact, bettors who plan to ignore Premier League favorites at any money-line price until the English soccer season supposedly “begins” had better get with the program quickly, or else they could find themselves knocked-out by Boxing Day.

Consider that Liverpool’s opening 2-2 draw against Fulham might have been explained-away by analysts of another era, with the knowledge that late summer is when EPL minnows swim quickly, and titans get prepared to face off in critical rivalries that heat up over winter. But there can be no such sleepy reaction to the Premier League table’s status after Round 1. Man City and Liverpool have attained a pinnacle of quality at which league losses (and draws) are so rare for either side, the  championship race could turn into more of a 38-match duel than slow burner. Chelsea and Tottenham are threatening to match Man City and Liverpool’s quality over the next few months, and given Man United and Arsenal’s still-lurking threat from beneath, footballers from the Premiership’s top-rated clubs are being put under fierce pressure right away.

Manchester City is now approaching “prohibitive odds-on” territory as a (-210) betting favorite to win the Premier League, after beating West Ham 2-0 last weekend. Liverpool, already down 2 points in the crucial race between top-ranked sides, must hope against hope that Fulham’s fresh debut wasn’t a fluke, and that Cottagers are the newly-arrived contender that some relegation-odds and top-half prop-odds gamblers believe them to potentially be this season.

Speaking of promotion and relegation, long-term punters have not responded to the opening weekend’s Premier League scoreboard quite as fitfully as championship-odds markets have, at least not considering the bright outcomes for 2 out of 3 promoted teams. Fulham may have scored twice to somehow produce a draw with Liverpool, while AFC Bournemouth celebrates a 3-to-1 underdog win over Aston Villa that was predicted right here on our EPL blog. Nevertheless, the Championship representatives of 2021-22 remain FanDuel’s 3 shortest picks to relegate this cycle, including Cherries at an eye-popping (-180) following Bournemouth’s successful “re-debut.”

WagerBop – lest we go without mentioning – went 3 out of 4 on our Premier League scroll last week. What’s the best place to look for this weekend’s winning bets, at the over-analyzed top of the table, or the (apparently) underappreciated 15th-through-20th level?

Let’s start by looking at a classic “legacy vs bubble” English Premier League match early on Saturday, though this time, the odds have been flipped so that the recently promoted team is a going-away favorite on the money-line.

Sat. August 13: Aston Villa vs Everton F.C.

Readers won’t find a lot of “casino”-style wagering advice on WagerBop, since the suggestions in beginners’ texts for casino gamblers involve a very different kind of money management. However, a word of “Las Vegas” advice could help out ‘Boppers this weekend, since readers who took our Round 1 pick advice won 3 out of 4 times. Cherries turned out to be the best newly-promoted pick to win of the weekend at 3-to-1 odds, just 1 of 3 plus-odds picks that turned out winners.

But now it’s time for the dealer – or the pit boss – to fight back. EPL bettors must set about ignoring the blinking lights, bells, and whistles of odds on top-ranked teams, and instead, look at money-line odds on a team that barely hung on to its top-tier placement this spring.

Toffeemen of Everton make up a strange (+370) underdog against Aston Villa this weekend, having lost to Chelsea 0-1 in a ragged, fitful debut. That’s not exactly a good reason to make Aston Villa the minus-odds (-125) favorite to beat Everton at home. Everton’s lineup may be folding over on itself, but the club still has elite weapons at its disposal that Aston Villa’s blue-collar side can’t match.

Richarlison’s absence will sting until Toffees can “moneyball” a comparable number of goals-in-aggregate. Yet the club retains the services of England’s goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, who warded off nearly 70 minutes of intense Chelsea attacks with only a single goal allowed in Round 1. He’ll go up against Villains keeper Emiliano Martínez on Saturday with a chance to be the better cog.

No disrespect to the keeper of one of England’s most stubborn teams. Martinez has been crucial to Aston Villa’s steady gains and has been awarded vice-captaincy, which could boost the team emotionally going into an important home debut. But we’re looking at a club that lost to Cherries, a virtually “20th-ranked” team in England, with a clean sheet in its opening match.

FanDuel’s “Draw” odds of (+250) may look appealing next to Everton’s generous money-line pick, but Saturday’s ATS wager of Everton and a goal (with plus odds) may be the best pick.

WagerBop’s Pick: Everton ATS (+1) (+100)

Sat. August 13: Brentford F.C. vs Manchester United

Red Devils of Man United, a (+100) pick to defeat Bees of Brentford F.C. this Saturday, lost its opening match to Brighton. That caused MUFC to sink to (+6000) odds in betting markets on the next EPL champion.

To be sure, there’s little that famed striker Ronaldo can do to improve the discipline of teammates, who were struck 4 separate times with yellow cards, and gave-up deadly counter-attacks in Round 1. Like the odds on Villa to defeat Everton, though, it may be an overreaction for sportsbooks to put plus-odds on MUFC just when Red Devils are poised to bear down on winning. Man United is an annual contender to qualify for UEFA play, while Brentford is happy to stay afloat in the top tier.

WagerBop’s Pick: Man United (+100)

Sun. August 14: Chelsea vs Tottenham

Chelsea began with a 1-0 victory over Everton, prevailing over Toffees on a Jorginho penalty kick that came nearly 10:00 after the 1st half was supposed to end. It’s ironic that delays weren’t caused by Richarlison’s trademarked pratfalls for Everton, since the Brazilian striker has transferred to Spurs for 2022-23. Spurs, concurrently, must be thrilled with the skills of Brazil’s latest Premier League superstar, but defeated Southampton utilizing the services of Harry Kane at striker.

Sunday, the club will visit Stamford Bridge for the weekend’s marquee match-up, with Chelsea a (+125) wagered favorite against Tottenham’s relatively weak (+220) odds on the money-line.

In our view, the well-matched bout is too unpredictable for readers to be betting on such lopsided main market odds. Remember the #1 principle of WagerBop sports betting – when a game can go either way easily the underdog is always a better pick. We’re recommending Draw (+240) as the real “underdog” of FanDuel’s money-line picks and an extremely likely result at fat odds.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+240)

Sun. August 14: Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United

Nottingham football may have a fairy-tale image, but the promoted club  succumbed to Newcastle and a clean sheet in Round 1 while other newly-promoted Championship sides flourished against peak competition. Fulham scored twice to somehow produce a draw with Liverpool, and AFC Bournemouth celebrated a 3-to-1 underdog win over Aston Villa that was forecast here on our EPL blog. Nonetheless, the Championship representatives of 2021-22 remain FanDuel’s 3 shortest picks to relegate this cycle, including Cherries at an eye-popping (-180) following the Round 1 victory. Nottingham, having already lost without managing a single shot-on-target against the improving Magpies, isn’t likely to draw promising odds against a UEFA contender in 2022-23.

West Ham didn’t score in its 2022-23 debut, which could be why sportsbooks are offering such standard 1-to-1 odds on each side of (2.5) goals for the clash at City Ground.

Pessimism for each team’s attack is too tied to what occurred last week. Considering the danger of Hammers’ swift, willful offense at home and on the road, West Ham at Nottingham Forest could erupt into a corker, with Tricky Trees buoyed by the historic occasion more than anything else.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (2.5) (-112)

Mon. August 15: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Bookmakers took the “wake-up” principle of this week’s Man United prediction and ran with the same angle for Monday’s money-line markets. Liverpool’s odds of (-1500) to knock off Crystal Palace at Anfield are probably too generous toward Reds, but that doesn’t mean that the best gamble is a simple long-shot wager on Eagles to win. Not following a week in which Liverpool was served notice that nothing will come easy in the effort to build on last year’s pair of domestic trophies. Liverpool could still be caught sleeping by an underdog in the next several weeks, but timing is a little off for placing picks on this Monday’s (+600) underdogs.

Goal-total odds of (-178) on Over (2.5) goals indicate that bookmakers (and punters) expect a flurry of offense from angered Liverpool. But the visiting club and its “zonal” defense will undoubtedly be locked-down tight. Reds are already trying to play with a significantly new lineup, trying to figure out a means to push for goals without giving up as many easy mid-field counters as against Cottagers in the season’s opening round. Crystal Palace is known for getting its young attackers into open space while adjusted tactics are fresh early in the cycle, making it likely that Reds’ accomplished coaching staff will opt for a cautious approach to the opening frame.

If and when the Liverpool attack gets rolling, there’s no quality on the Crystal Palace back-line to stem the tide and produce an upset with great defending. But most of Liverpool’s best chances will come in the back half of play, leaving the scoresheet less time to accumulate 3 or 4 goals and produce the “Over” win that London and Las Vegas seem to anticipate.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (3.5) (-184)