Profit by Betting Nothing but Pac-12 Games in February – Part Two

Yesterday I enlightened readers on the rampant success that home teams in the Pac-12 have enjoyed once the calendar turns to February. That ever-giving well is not dry. There are more profits in this conference just waiting to be exploited.

If you have already tasted the sweet fruit of Pac-12 February games and are back for more – welcome! If you stumbled across this page before reading Part One, click the link above to take you back.

Let’s get started.

Betting February Unders in the Pac-12

I touched on conferences that always seem to play under the total in an earlier article and the Pac-12 was not one of them. When February rolls around, however, that changes. The oddsmakers have adjusted to this trend a bit, but Pac-12 teams continue to score less than anticipated. Check out the average total set by Vegas in Pac-12 conference games per month, since the 2011-12 season.

Month	Avg Total
December	148.6
January	143.0
February	142.7
March	141.1

The totals decrease throughout the year and yet the unders keep profiting in February. How lucrative is Pac-12 February under betting? Try this stat on for size. Since 2011, the under has won 55.7% of the time. That is over $2,000 in profit for $100/game bettors.

Season	Under %	Avg Total
2017-18	53.5%	146.3
2016-17	54.5%	147.4
2015-16	56.8%	149.2
2014-15	54.8%	136.3
2013-14	47.5%	141.0
2012-13	59.1%	135.7
2011-12	62.8%	131.8
Total	55.7%	141.1

Betting Against the Pac-12 in the Dance

Okay, this is cheating because the title of my article includes the phrase “in February” and not “in March”. There is a recent trend of Pac-12 NCAA tourney favorites underperforming both SU and ATS, however, and I would be remiss if I did not share it with you.

Since the 2015-16 season (the 2016 tournament), Pac-12 teams have let down their backers when favored in the dance. As is normally the case for major conference teams, Pac-12 clubs have had numerous opportunities in this situation, totalling 18 such games in this 3-year stretch. Check out these numbers for Pac-12 faves in March Madness.

Season	ATS Record (%)	SU Record (%)	Avg Line
2017-18	0-3 (0%)	0-3 (0%)	-4.3
2016-17	4-4 (50%)	7-2 (77.8%)	-8.6
2015-16	3-3 (50%)	4-2 (66.7%)	-8.1
Total	7-10 (41.2%)	11-7 (61.1%)	-7.7

I will be the first to admit that those ATS numbers are not eye-popping. Sure, they have only won 41.2% over the past 3 seasons, but that is purely because of a bad tournament this last year. The ATS win rate for these games was in no-man’s land the 2 years prior.

I included the ATS numbers because they are a good supporting bet for a little extra upside. The moneyline is where bettors can fill up. Betting against favored Pac-12 teams in the tourney would have yielded profits in each of the past 3 seasons.

Using our wonderful formula, we can determine that these Pac-12 teams would have needed to win approximately 66%, 82%, and 80% SU respectively to profit. It is easy to see that these teams were not profitable on the moneyline, given that their actual SU win rates were 0%, 77.8%, and 66.7%.

Take this valuable information and put it to good use. See you on the top!