Reds Favored to Beat Hammers by More than a Goal on Matchday 25

At a certain point on Wednesday, it seemed as though Liverpool’s ship might have finally come in.

The Reds were playing Leicester City, and a goal in the 3^rd minute gave supporters at Anfield reason to believe. Manchester City had surprisingly fallen to Newcastle, leaving the door wide open for 1^st-place Liverpool to stake an imposing lead in the trophy race. Guard and expand a 1-0 lead against Leicester? No problem!

For the meantime, Tottenham – perhaps the only other club with a real chance of catching Jürgen Klopp’s team – began the week 9 points out of 1^st and missing a few top stars on the front line. Spurs swiftly fell behind 0-1 to Watford just as Liverpool was getting warmed up against Leicester.

Fortunes swayed in a hurry. The Foxes somehow held Liverpool off the board for the rest of 90+ minutes, forging a brave 1-1 draw following Harry Maguire’s goal at the tail end of the 1^st half, and sticking the Reds with the loss of 2 potential points.

Meanwhile, the astonishing Heung-Min Son of Spurs (home early from the Asian Cup) willed an untested forward line to a comeback 2-1 victory. Few Spurs strikes were finding the mark until the 26-year-old Korean blasted a goal past veteran keeper Ben Foster in the 80^th minute.

Now Liverpool is feeling the strain. The Reds lead the Premier League with 61 points, but the dropped points vs Foxes have caused a ripple in betting lines for a match at West Ham on Monday.

Still the Irons (or “Hammers”) are a (+1 ½) dark horse on the goal spread and (+657) on the 3-way moneyline after dropping 3 matches in a row against beatable sides.

MyBookie also has the O/U goal total at (3).

Liverpool Lapse?

“We have 61 points now which is still an incredible number.” 🔴

Klopp reflects on his side’s 1-1 draw against @LCFC. pic.twitter.com/M16HcU7tc1

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) January 31, 2019

The draw with Leicester City makes Liverpool’s record 2-1-2 over the club’s last 5 matches, and serves as the 2^nd time the Reds have underperformed against an underdog in January. Liverpool was also ousted from the FA Cup by Wolves despite fielding a fairly well-built lineup that included Fabinho and James Milner. Before that match, the visiting Reds lost 2-1 to City in league play.

Klopp is hoping to see his club’s free-flowing attacking game which ruled the final stretch of 2018. Liverpool is hardly a stone-cold defending unit in spite of the presence of Alisson (who did not appear in the loss to Wolverhampton) between the posts. Liverpool wants to play fast-paced football and score goals. There is all the skill in the world to do it with. Why a dry spell now?

The skipper is blaming a nasty mid-week pitch for the squad’s atrophied attack, but perchance it is all just part of the natural ebb and flow of a star-studded offense?

There is no question of the roster’s quality. Liverpool is averaging 57% possession across all matches this season, and has landed a remarkable 42% of attempted shots on target compared to just 34% of the average opponent’s shots. The addition of Virgil van Dijk to Liverpool’s backline has added much-needed guidance to a young and vivacious group of defenders.

On the front line, the triumvirate of Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino will continue to incite fear in every opposing keeper. Salah leads the Premier League with 16 goals in 2018-19.

All together now – HE IS NOT MESSI. HE IS NOT RONALDO. HE IS SALAH.

Maybe it was a gaffe for Klopp not to play his best lineup against Wolves in the FA Cup. Whenever a club has an air of dominance about it, it serves as an extra competitive weapon. Now Liverpool is just a really good soccer team that seems as defenseless to the surprise mishap as anyone.

It’s just a question of whether West Ham can be the next squad to properly test the Reds.

With a Side of Pineapple

The Hammers have been getting cooked. After picking up just 2 wins in January, West Ham went on to endure a 4-2 upset defeat against AFC Wimbledon in the FA Cup 4^th Round.

If the scene at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday was total joy, the atmosphere at Kingsmeadow on Saturday was one of shock and unadulterated worship of the host Wombles. Ladies were weeping. Gentlemen with canes were hobbling very quickly to hug old friends.

But there are 2 sides to every sports story. Combined with a gruesome 0-2 loss to Cherries and Tuesday’s 0-3 result against Wolves, where does the last 2 weeks leave West Ham?

Skipper Manuel Pellegrini will be hoping that newbie Samir Nasri is able to make an impact in the Hammers lineup. Nasri is working his way back into a Premier League lineup after an 18-month ban. Brazilian midfielder Felipe Anderson had a brilliant outing against Arsenal in the Hammers’ upset win on January 12^th, managing to make 7 crosses during his 90+ minutes.

Declan Rice will be charged with taming the unchecked Liverpool attack. But he is only a kid. A daunting, slightly more-seasoned Issa Diop could further help the host club make a stand in front of keeper Łukasz Fabiański.

Handicapping the Irons and Reds

Klopp will remind van Dijk and other backline players to shield first and let the attack come to them, given that the Reds are facing an anxious club on their home turf.

If Liverpool plays scientifically, then either the Hammers will press for the lead and forget how noxious the visitors can be on the counterattack, or sink back into the box and try to play out from the back against an irksome Liverpool midfield.

Either way the psychology and timing would seem to work in Liverpool’s favor.

I am feeling a 2-0 or 3-0 win for the Reds.