Reds vs Wanderers: Premiership Bettors Take a Cold Shower on Liverpool

So I was finishing a write-up of Sunday’s all-important Premier League fixtures between Liverpool and Wolves and between Brighton and Manchester City. Wolverhampton’s line on an upset win was 9-to-1 at Bovada Sportsbook. That looked like a pretty good wager to me.

Then, just as I was headed to publish, a miracle happened at Anfield.

Liverpool – battered, bruised, missing Mohamed Salah and having watched midfielder Andrew Robertson helped off the pitch – began scoring goals against Barcelona in the 2^nd leg of a dead-in-the-water Champions League tie. A bunch of goals. So many goals that soon the Spanish club’s 3-0 aggregate lead was erased, and the Reds needed to score just one more time to advance to the final at Wanda Metropolitano.

I do not know who ultimately conceived of the hosts’ epic fake-out set piece that opened up the door to victory. Was it Jürgen Klopp’s masterpiece? The way corner-taker Trent Alexander-Arnold describes it, he wasn’t even planning the cross to Divock Origi until trotting out and then seeing the opportunity.

However it happened, it will go down as one of the great moments at Anfield…ever.

But it hasn’t had the effect on Premier League gamblers that you might expect.

Wolves line-to-win a Matchday 38 road battle with Liverpool on Sunday were (+900) on Tuesday morning. They’re an (+800) wager now, having spent time in the 7-to-1 range before leveling-off.

Did the Reds not just prove that the club’s attack is built on more than Salah’s elegance and a carefully-lined out supporting cast?

Sadio Mané is still there, but it’s not certain that Salah will be coming back any time soon. Gamblers had felt that an elite backline could hold Liverpool off the scoreboard with a determined effort and help from the midfield. That’s why there weren’t more long-shot bets on Reds to advance in UEFA, and the theory held water until about the 50^th minute of the Barcelona match when the English side flipped a switch.

Wolverhampton’s 9-to-1 was just a bad price. It’s not surprising that gamblers moved on it. What’s surprising is that Liverpool’s heroics on Tuesday haven’t tilted the moneyline action at Bovada back toward the favorites.

Big City Blues

It’s not as if Manchester City isn’t bothered by injuries, as the pressure and fatigue of a failed run at the quadruple winds into a final, domestic skirmish for 2 coveted titles. Kevin De Bruyne has missed the last 2 weeks with a hamstring injury. Fernandinho is also questionable for the remaining 2 fixtures with a knee injury. Backup goalie Claudio Bravo is out with an Achilles injury.

But City’s opponent on Sunday is a little bit under the weather too, making an outcome of Seagulls hanging tight for 60+ minutes – as in a 2-0 loss to City back in September – far from likely. Dutch midfielder Davy Pröpper and forward José Izquierdo missed a Cinco de Mayo contest against Arsenal and remain uncertain for the fixture against Man City on Sunday.

It could be enough to demoralize the club that is counting on Brighton to pull off an amazing upset. The Premier League crown is only attainable for the Reds if they win and City loses or draws in a match that will kick-off simultaneously in Brighton.

Wolves is the better underdog pick on Sunday because Liverpool could suffer a letdown if word comes that the Sky Blues are winning big. That’s not all, though. Wolverhampton can also make a case as the healthiest club in all of English football.

Clean Sheets and Bloody Messes

Bettors have a few reasonable angles by which to pick Wolves to score an upset and make things surprisingly easy for Citizens.

Mexican forward Raúl Jiménez has been a bright spot in his first season for Wolves on loan from Benfica, with 13 goals and 7 assists. Matt Doherty is capable of leading a spirited pull to a clean sheet against any opponent.

But the best reason is the Wanderers’ health. Head coach Nuno Espírito Santo credits his team’s medical staff and roster-wide discipline for Wolverhampton’s remarkable lack of injuries at the tail end of a long season.

Liverpool has injury problems that go far beyond Salah and Robertson. Virgil van Dijk has been ailing, and Roberto Firmino missed the Champions League leg.

The timing looks right for another Wolves surprise. Doherty relishes the role of spoiler. The Reds’ attack still looks elite against the top clubs in the world, but it’s been inconsistent at times in the Premier League. What if another 1 or 2 key players fall in a physical 1^st half this weekend?

Liverpool vs Wolves: Find the Longest ‘Dog Moneyline

Wanderers remain a solid underdog ML pick at (+800). Liverpool will most likely win, but I’m giving Wolverhampton 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chances – only a (+500) line on the visitors would discourage me.

However, the Matchday 38 odds are clearly pliable to heavy action as the weekend draws near. Look around the web for the longest line on Wolves – surely there will be more rushes of wagers on the hosts at Anfield, who demonstrated about 48 hours ago just how far their supporters could carry them on a given day.

But all days are different. The momentum of recent glory in another competition does not always spill over into the Premiership.