Should We Expect These Hot Starts to Continue?

Sports trophy engraver. There’s a cush job. Once the season ends you have a few names to etch in and that’s it. Sure, there is a bit of a rush during the week that awards are announced but even that can be mitigated.

See, if I was a trophy engraver I’d beat that rush by predicting who is going to win certain awards in advance. I’d engrave those ahead of time. I could probably even charge extra for prompt delivery.

The key is being good at prediction. Certain things are safe to assume at the beginning of June, but most of what lies ahead is still murky in our crystal balls. What is safe to assume at this point and what isn’t?

Let’s take a look at current stat leaders – can we expect the leaders in AVG, HR, ERA, WHIP, etc. on June 1 to lead those categories at the end of the year?

For example, J.D. Martinez is currently leading the majors in batting average at .363. Do we go ahead and engrave his batting title trophy tonight or should we hold off a bit?

To answer this, I’m going to dive back through the past 10 seasons of data to find how often the leaders in the fantasy baseball categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB, ERA, WHIP, K, W, S) hold their June 1 leads and, if not, how far do they typically fall.

Before I even do any research, my guess is that these leaderboards probably change a lot throughout the season and that we should not put any clout in how they look on June 1 … but that is why I look up the stats.

April and May Batting Average Leaders

I am looking at batting average first not only because it is almost always the first hitting stat listed when talking numbers but also because there can be extreme fluctuation week-to-week, day-to-day, even at-bat-to-at-bat.

Most full-time hitters are hovering around 200 at-bats come early June. With only 200 at-bats, your average can move 4-5 points each time you step into the box. This means you can knock 15 to 20 points off your average with a bad game in early June or boost it way up with a few hits.

Hitters can drop from .340 to .300 with one bad week in early June and watch themselves plummet down the slippery slope of the batting average leaderboard.

How often does it seem someone who was a top-5 hitter pre-All-Star break finishes hitting in the .270s or .280s? All the time, right?

Percentage or rate-based statistics are notoriously difficult to maintain a lead in for one reason – you can go down. A hitter’s home run or RBI total can never decrease, but his batting average can sure tank.

Here are the June 1 leaders and end of season leaders in batting average each year since 2011. Let’s see how often these guys hold onto their leads.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	J.D. Martinez (.363)	–	–
2021	N. Castellanos (.356)	T. Turner (.328)	7th (.309)
2020	–	–	–
2019	C. Bellinger (.376)	T. Anderson (.335)	16th (.305)
2018	M. Betts (.359)	M. Betts (.346)	1st
2017	R. Zimmerman (.368)	J. Altuve (.346)	21st (.303)
2016	D. Murphy (.397)	D. LeMahieu (.348)	2nd (.347)
2015	D. Gordon (.377)	Mi. Cabrera (.338)	2nd (.333)
2014	T. Tulowitzki (.352)	J. Altuve (.341)	DNQ
2013	Mi. Cabrera (.372)	Mi. Cabrera (.348)	1st
2012	P. Konerko (.381)	B. Posey (.336)	27th (.298)
2011	M. Joyce (.370)	Mi. Cabrera (.344)	61st (.277)

A grand total of 2 times in the past 10 years has the Major League batting leader on June 1 wound up wearing the crown.

Note the league-high batting average on June 1 was higher than the final league-high average every single time. It is much easier to hit for a high average over a smaller sample size.

Will J.D. Martinez win the batting title? Maybe, but the numbers say he is actually more likely to finish outside the top 10 than inside the top 2.

April and May Home Run Leaders

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	A. Judge (18)	–	–
2021	3 tied* (16)	2 tied^ (48)	1st/31st/63rd
2020	–	–
2019	C. Yelich (22)	P. Alonso (53)	6th (44)
2018	4 tied** (18)	K. Davis (48)	2nd/4th/5th/15th
2017	A. Judge (17)	G. Stanton (59)	2nd (52)
2016	2 tied# (16)	M. Trumbo (47)	6th/8th
2015	2 tied^^ (18)	C. Davis (47)	2nd/3rd
2014	N. Cruz (20)	N. Cruz (40)	1st
2013	C. Davis (19)	C. Davis (53)	1st
2012	J. Hamilton (21)	Mi. Cabrera (44)	2nd (43)
2011	J. Bautista (20)	J. Bautista (43)	1st

* R. Acuna, V. Guerrero Jr, Ado. Garcia

^ V. Guerrero Jr, S. Perez

** M. Trout, J. Ramirez, JD Martinez, B. Harper

# N. Arenado, T. Frazier

^^ B. Harper, N. Cruz

If it seems there are more home runs hit now than there used to be … it’s because it’s true. Home runs are way up across baseball the past few years.

Coming into this study, I expect a cumulative stat like home runs to have far less shuffling atop the leaderboard than a rate-based one like batting average or ERA.

4 players maintained their home run leads and another 4 finished in 2nd place. I have to say that this is totally expected. It’s hard to close a gap in the home run race because there just aren’t very many of them. Also, very few guys have the pop it takes to hit 40-50 dingers.

April and May RBI Leaders

Long gone are the days in which players drive in upwards of 200 runs. You have to go all the way back to 1962 to find the last time a player who didn’t cheat drove in 150.

51 RBIs for J-Ram on June 1st is a lot. Only 1 other player in the past 8 seasons has accumulated more. Look at 2015. Giancarlo Stanton led the Majors with 44 on June 1st.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	J. Ramirez (51)	–	–
2021	J. Abreu (46)	S. Perez (121)	2nd (117)
2020	–	–	–
2019	J. Bell (53)	A. Rendon (126)	9th (116)
2018	J. Martinez (47)	J. Martinez (130)	1st
2017	C. Blackmon (46)	G. Stanton (132)	14th (104)
2016	D. Ortiz (47)	N. Arenado (133)	2nd (127)
2015	G. Stanton (44)	N. Arenado (130)	86th (67)
2014	N. Cruz (52)	A. Gonzalez (116)	4th (108)
2013	Mi. Cabrera (61)	C. Davis (138)	2nd (137)
2012	J. Hamilton (57)	Mi. Cabrera (139)	2nd (128)
2011	A. Gonzalez (46)	M. Kemp (126)	5th (117)

So many times did the June 1 RBI leader hold on till the bitter end? Just once in the past 10 years.

RBIs do not fluctuate like batting averages so holding an RBI lead is a bit easier in that respect. RBIs are far more common than home runs, though – meaning there are far more players capable of competing for an RBI crown than the HR crown.

You can build an RBI lead far quicker than you can a home run lead but you are prone to give up the lead just as quickly. Those things tend to come in bunches.

April and May Runs Leaders

On to what some would label baseball’s most important stat – runs. If you can’t score you can’t win. Run-scorers may not receive the most love from the media and fans, but it sure is fun to watch a good hitter work his way on and then maneuver his way around the bases.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	M. Betts (50)	–	–
2021	B. Bichette (43)	V. Guerrero Jr (123)	2nd (121)
2020	–	–	–
2019	T. Story (53)	M. Betts (135)	10th (111)
2018	M. Betts (52)	2 tied* (129)	1st
2017	P. Goldschmidt (46)	C. Blackmon (137)	4th (117)
2016	M. Betts (49)	M. Trout (123)	2nd (122)
2015	J. Donaldson (43)	J. Donaldson (122)	1st
2014	J. Donaldson (48)	M. Trout (115)	14th (93)
2013	J. Votto (45)	M. Carpenter (126)	8th (101)
2012	C. Gonzalez (44)	M. Trout (129)	30th (89)
2011	J. Bautista (45)	C. Granderson (136)	8th (105)

* M. Betts, F. Lindor

How often did the top run dawgs remain the top run dawgs? Over the past 10 seasons, the runs leader on June 1 ended up on top just twice with a couple of 2nd place finishes.

Runs are very similar to RBIs with one added caveat. Runs are less about the hitter and more about his team.

Remember how I explained that you will always have more competition for a batting title than you will a home run title? Runs are the ultimate free-for-all. You don’t even need to be a good hitter to score. It helps. It helps a lot, actually, but a great middle of the order can inflate a tablesetter’s run figure right up onto the top of the leaderboard.

Competing for a runs title is very difficult because so many hitters are capable of it. It is generally understood that runs are the main-5 hitting stat a hitter has the least control over. For this reason, no one ever makes a big deal about who is leading the league in runs.

We know, though. It’s Mookie Betts … for now.

April and May Steals Leaders

Steals. Quite possibly my favorite aspect of the game.

A stolen base can get in the pitcher’s head, get in the catcher’s head, demoralize an entire team, and improve your team’s scoring chances all in less than 4 seconds.

There is always a lot of turnover in the steals department because you need to be both very fast and very healthy to steal a huge number of bags in a season. Unfortunately, most players do not possess both of these traits for long.

A couple of young speedsters will set the league on fire for a couple of years and then drop off the face of the earth … cough … Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Villar.

Steals are down a bit over the past few years, and it’s not because we are lacking in able-legged speed demons. Offensive philosophy has shifted toward a homer-happy approach which heavily reduces the importance of the stolen base. In fact, if you plan to score most of your runs via the longball then attempting steals is actually detrimental. 

Combining the 15 steals from Whit Merrifield at this time last year and the 14 from Julio Rodriguez this season wouldn’t even lead the league on June 1st in years’ past.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	J. Rodriguez (14)	–	–
2021	W. Merrifield (15)	S. Marte (47)	2nd (40)
2020	–	–
2019	A. Mondesi (21)	M. Smith (46)	2nd (43)
2018	E. Inciarte (18)	W. Merrifield (45)	12th (28)
2017	B. Hamilton (28)	D. Gordon (60)	2nd (59)
2016	J. Villar (19)	J. Villar (62)	1st
2015	B. Hamilton (21)	D. Gordon (58)	2nd (57)
2014	D. Gordon (34)	D. Gordon (64)	1st
2013	J. Ellsbury (21)	J. Ellsbury (52)	1st
2012	E. Bonafacio (20)	M. Trout (49)	17th (30)
2011	M. Bourn (20)	M. Bourn (61)	1st

The stolen base leader on June 1 held onto the crown in 4 of the past 10 seasons and finished 2nd in 4 others. Steals is a category where you will not find much competition at the top. Normally there are only 3 or 4 guys with a realistic chance of winning the steals crown each year.

Because speed does not go in slumps, many stolen base races are determined by who stayed healthiest throughout the year.

April and May ERA Leaders

Let’s not forget about those poor pitchers.

Rangers starter Martin Perez seems unphased by the delayed Spring Training – hitting the ground sprinting in 2022. How likely is Perez to win this year’s ERA crown? ERA is another rate-based statistic, so I’m not expect a ton of correlation. Let’s see.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	M. Perez (1.42)	–	–
2021	J. deGrom (0.71)	C. Burnes (2.43)	DNQ
2020	–	–	–
2019	H. Ryu (1.48)	H. Ryu (2.32)	1st
2018	J. Verlander (1.11)	J. deGrom (1.70)	5th (2.52)
2017	E. Santana (1.75)	C. Kluber (2.25)	11th (3.28)
2016	C. Kershaw (1.56)	K. Hendricks (2.13)	3rd (2.13)
2015	2 tied* (1.48)	Z. Greinke (1.66)	1st/14th
2014	J. Samardzija (1.68)	C. Kershaw (1.77)	22nd (2.99)
2013	P. Corbin (1.71)	C. Kershaw (1.83)	35th (3.41)
2012	B. Beachy (1.77)	C. Kershaw (2.53)	DNQ
2011	J. Jurrjens (1.51)	C. Kershaw (2.28)	DNQ

* Z. Greinke, S. Miller

A whopping 2 players were able to hold their June 1 ERA leads over the past 10 years.

Just like batting average, ERA is extremely volatile and “fluky”. You will have lots of competition toward the top. The most deserving pitcher may not always win the ERA crown. This is why xFIP exists.

April and May WHIP Leaders

Walks and hits per innings pitched – WHIP. If you do not allow baserunners as a pitcher, the offense is going to have a difficult time putting runs on the board.

WHIP and ERA go hand-in-hand. If a pitcher has a high WHIP but a low ERA, he is getting lucky. It means he is working himself out of jams at an unsustainable pace.

Corbin Burnes is building off his Cy Young-winning 2021 season by leading the WHIP race at 0.82 in 2022. Let’s see how likely he is to hold on.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	C. Burnes (0.82)	–	–
2021	J. deGrom (0.57)	M. Scherzer (0.86)	DNQ
2020	–	–	–
2019	J. Verlander (0.74)	J. Verlander (0.80)	1st
2018	J. Verlander (0.71)	J. Verlander (0.90)	1st
2017	E. Santana (0.84)	C. Kluber (0.87)	9th (1.13)
2016	C. Kershaw (0.65)	M. Scherzer (0.97)	DNQ
2015	Z. Greinke (0.87)	Z. Greinke (0.84)	1st
2014	J. Cueto (0.76)	C. Kershaw (0.86)	3rd (0.96)
2013	M. Harvey (0.82)	C. Kershaw (0.92)	2nd (0.93)
2012	J. Verlander (0.89)	Jer. Weaver (1.02)	5th (1.06)
2011	J. Tomlin (0.90)	J. Verlander (0.92)	11th (1.08)

3 of the previous 10 June 1 WHIP leaders were able to maintain their positions atop the league while we also saw a 2nd and 3rd-place finish.

You have a much lower chance of getting lucky with WHIP than you do with ERA. The WHIP crown is a better achievement than the ERA crown in my opinion, although it gets talked about far less by the media.

April and May Strikeout Leaders

Strikeouts are to pitchers what home runs are to hitters – the ultimate goal of each at-bat. They’re not everything, but they sure make the crowd roar.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	S. McClanahan (81)	–	–
2021	S. Bieber (110)	R. Ray (248)	62nd (134)
2020	–	–	–
2019	G. Cole (116)	G. Cole (326)	1st
2018	M. Scherzer (120)	M. Scherzer (300)	1st
2017	C. Sale (110)	C. Sale (308)	1st
2016	C. Kershaw (105)	M. Scherzer (284)	29th (172)
2015	C. Kluber (96)	C. Kershaw (301)	5th (245)
2014	C. Kluber (95)	D. Price (271)	2nd (269)
2013	Y. Darvish (105)	Y. Darvish (277)	1st
2012	J. Verlander (82)	J. Verlander (239)	1st
2011	R. Halladay (91)	J. Verlander (250)	7th (220)

5 times in the past 10 years did the June 1 K leader hold on till the end of September. Strikeouts are the most predictive stat of the 10 we discuss today.

This is because very few pitchers are capable of legitimately competing for the strikeout crown. Deficits are also difficult to overcome because it is so tough to gain ground. If an ace has a normal start, he might strike out 7 or 8 batters. If you have an awesome start you might K 12 or 13. You only gain a few.

April and May Wins Leaders

I dislike discussing the records of pitchers. I do not feel that a pitcher’s record is a good indication of how well he is pitching. Just like runs with hitters, wins and losses depend so much on your teammates. Just look at Jacob deGrom in 2018.

Regardless of what I think, wins are still praised by the media. Wins gifted Rick Porcello the Cy Young in 2016. Wins also still count for points in fantasy baseball, so let’s see what’s up.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	4 tied* (6)	–	–
2021	J. Flaherty (8)	J. Urias (20)	55th (9)
2020	–	–	–
2019	D. German (9)	J. Verlander (21)	4th (18)
2018	M. Scherzer (9)	B. Snell (21)	4th (18)
2017	D. Keuchel (8)	4 tied@ (18)	18th (14)
2016	3 tied^ (9)	R. Porcello (22)	5th/8th/18th
2015	2 tied& (8)	J. Arrieta (22)	6th/14th
2014	M. Buehrle (9)	C. Kershaw (21)	37th (13)
2013	4 tied** (8)	M. Scherzer (21)	2nd/5th/17th/18th
2012	2 tied^^ (8)	G. Gonzalez (21)	6th/8th
2011	7 tied# (7)	J. Verlander (24)	–

* A. Cimber, J. Verlander, T. Anderson, W. Buehler

@ C. Kluber, C. Kershaw, C. Carrasco, J. Vargas

^ J. Arrieta, C. Sale, S. Strasburg

& F. Hernandez, B. Colon

** P. Corbin, M. Moore, J. Zimmerman, J. Masterson

^^ C. Hamels. L. Lynn

# lol … not gonna list all 7, but J. Verlander was not one of them

Not once over the past 10 seasons was the pitcher with the most wins on June 1 and the pitcher with the most wins at the end of the season the same person.

April and May Saves Leaders

And finally, the thorn in the side of fantasy owners and MLB managers alike – saves.

Saves are, by far, the most difficult of the 10 fantasy stats to predict. In order for a save to occur, your team must create a save opportunity.

You can be a perfect pitcher and still wind up with low saves numbers simply because your team is either too good (they always win by a lot) or too bad to create ample save opportunities.

Because saves really do not have that much to do with the closer, there is always a high turnover in the saves leaderboards from year-to-year.

Year	June 1 Leader	End of Season Leader	Final Place of 6/1 Leader
2022	J. Hader (18)	–	–
2021	M. Melancon (17)	M. Melancon (39)	1st
2020	–	–	–
2019	K. Yates (22)	K. Yates (41)	1st
2018	E. Diaz (19)	E. Diaz (57)	1st
2017	G. Holland (19)	A. Colome (47)	2nd (41)
2016	2 tied* (17)	J. Familia (51)	1st/8th
2015	G. Perkins (19)	M. Melancon (51)	16th (32)
2014	3 tied^ (17)	F. Rodney (48)	5th/7th/23rd
2013	J. Grilli (22)	2 tied# (50)	17th (33)
2012	C. Perez (17)	J. Johnson (51)	6th (39)
2011	J. Oviedo (19)	J. Valverde (49)	11th (36)

* J. Gomez, J. Familia

^ H. Street, F. Rodriguez, S. Romo

# C. Kimbrel, J. Johnson

4 times over the past 10 seasons has the June 1 saves leader successfully closed the most games come the end of September.

 

Today we learned there are several stats in which we can be impressed by good starts, but many we cannot due to regression and the incredible length of the MLB season.