State of the NFL After Week 14

A wild Week 14 culminated in the game of the year in Cleveland. Read our take on the current NFL playoff picture, here.

It’s time to go around the league and check up on each of our 32 teams. Some are in the thick of playoff races while others are lining up their offseason travel plans. With just 3 weeks left in the 2020 NFL regular season, it is truly do-or-die time.

Buffalo Bills 10-3

Best Win: 26-15 vs PIT

Worst Loss: 42-16 @ TEN

What They Do Well: Buffalo isn’t the first name you think of when recalling prolific pass offense, but the Bills rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per game (272.8). Only Kansas City and Green Bay pass for more yards than Buffalo – and each of those teams has a future HOF at quarterback.

What They Do Poorly: Buffalo struggles to generate a pass rush on defense, leaving themselves vulnerable to being torn apart by good quarterbacks. The Bills record a QB hurry on just 7.9% of dropbacks – the 6th-lowest mark in the league. As a frame of reference, the Patriots lead the league in this category with a hurry rate of 15.2%.

538 Playoff %: >99%

538 Win Division %: 99%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: BUF -6 @ DEN

Miami Dolphins 8-5

Best Win: 34-31 @ ARI

Worst Loss: 20-13 @ DEN

What They Do Well: Miami does not hurt themselves with penalties – a testament to the outstanding coaching job by Brian Flores. Only the Patriots have recorded fewer penalty yards than Miami this season.

What They Do Poorly: Miami’s defense struggles to stop the run. Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per rushing attempt against the Dolphins. This is the 5th-highest mark in the NFL.

538 Playoff %: 33%

538 Win Division %: 1%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: MIA -3 vs NE

New England Patriots 6-7       

Best Win: 45-0 @ LAC

Worst Loss: 27-20 @ HOU

What They Do Well: Replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton has turned the Patriots’ into a run-first team. New England ranks 5th in the league in rushing yards per game (147.5). In typical Patriots fashion, this team does not make unforced errors. New England ranks 1st in the league in fewest penalty yards per game (34). For reference, the worst team in the league in penalty yardage – New Orleans – gives up 64.8 yards per game on penalties.

What They Do Poorly: The Patriots can now run the ball but at the expense of their passing game. New England has thrown for the fewest passing touchdowns in the league this season (8 in 13 games). The leading team in this category – Green Bay – has thrown for 39 touchdowns in 2020.

538 Playoff %: 3%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: NE +3 @ MIA

New York Jets 0-13

Best Win: None

Worst Loss: 40-3 @ SEA

What They Do Well: They’re 0-13, so not much. The Jets do rank 9th in the league in defensive red zone TD% (57.7%). This isn’t much of a concern to the opposition, however, because it is very easy to score on the Jets from anywhere on the field.

What They Do Poorly: The Jets dead last in the NFL in both passing yards per game (166.1) and points per game (14.1). The Jets also hurt themselves with stupid penalties – ranking 28th in the league with 61.8 penalty yards per game.

538 Playoff %: Eliminated

Week 15 Matchup/Line: NYJ +17 @ LAR

Washington (Re*****s) Football Team 6-7

Best Win: 23-17 @ PIT

Worst Loss: 30-27 @ DET

What They Do Well: Washington is solid defensively. The Re*****s rank 6th in the league in opponent points per game (21.2) and are tied for 4th in the league with 40 sacks in 13 games this season.

What They Do Poorly: Washington is not the scoring capital of the NFL. The Re*****s rank 26th in the league in passing yards per game with 213.3. The team ranks 24th in rushing yards per game with 101.2. The lack of ball movement obviously makes it difficult for Washington to put up points. The Re*****s rank 24th in the league in points per game with 22.1.

538 Playoff %: 73%

538 Win Division %: 73%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: WAS +6 vs SEA

New York Giants 5-8

Best Win: 17-12 @ SEA

Worst Loss: 36-9 vs SF

What They Do Well: Defensively, New York shines. The Giants rank 7th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (101.5). New York allows the 9th-fewest points in football (22.4 per game).

What They Do Poorly: New York can’t score. The Giants rank 31st in both points per game (18.3) and passing touchdowns (9 in 13 games).

538 Playoff %: 15%

538 Win Division %: 15%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: NYG +4.5 vs CLE

Philadelphia Eagles 4-8-1

Best Win: 24-21 vs NO

Worst Loss: 27-17 @ NYG

What They Do Well: Jalen Hurts looks great. Why he didn’t get reps earlier in the season is beyond me.

What They Do Poorly: Philly cannot hold onto the ball to save their life. The Eagles have thrown 16 interceptions this season (2nd-most in the NFL) and fumbled 23 times (also 2nd-most in the NFL).

538 Playoff %: 11%

538 Win Division %: 11%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: PHI +6.5 @ ARI

Dallas Cowboys 4-9

Best Win: 40-39 vs ATL

Worst Loss: 41-16 vs WAS

What They Do Well: The Cowboys rank 18th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (110.9) – which isn’t very good – but it’s one of Dallas’ best qualities.

What They Do Poorly: The Cowboys allow the most points per game in the NFL (30.8). Their offense sucks – not a good combo.

538 Playoff %: 1%

538 Win Division %: 1%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: DAL +3 vs SF

Los Angeles Rams 9-4

Best Win: 27-24 @ TB

Worst Loss: 24-16 @ SF

What They Do Well: Defense. The Rams rank 3rd in opponent points per game with 18.9. The Rams’ defense is powered by a terrific run stopping front which ranks 3rd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 94.2.

Sean McVay and LA can also move the ball. The Rams rank 5th in the NFL in offensive yards per game with 389.4.

What They Do Poorly: Not a lot right now. LA is a very solid ball club. They have overtaken Seattle for top spot in the NFC West and hold a 63% chance to win their division.

538 Playoff %: >99%

538 Win Division %: 63%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: LAR -17 vs NYJ

Seattle Seahawks 9-4

Best Win: 28-21 vs ARI

Worst Loss: 17-12 vs NYG

What They Do Well: Seattle is not hurting for rain … or points. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in points per game with 30.2. Russell Wilson leads the Seahawks pass offense which ranks 7th in the NFL with 266.5 yards per game.

Seattle also boasts a vicious defense. The Seahawks allow no ground yards – ranking 4th in the NFL in opponent rush yards per game (95.5).

What They Do Poorly: Seattle’s defense is very stingy on the ground but is swiss cheese through the air. The Seahawks are the easiest team to pass on in football – ranking 32nd in the NFL with 294.8 passing yards allowed per game.

538 Playoff %: >99%

538 Win Division %: 35%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: SEA -6 @ WAS

Arizona Cardinals 7-6

Best Win: 37-34 vs SEA

Worst Loss: 31-21 @ CAR

What They Do Well: The Cardinals gain the 4th-most yards in football (389.5 per game). Arizona’ best method of attack is their strong running game. The team ranks 4th in the league with 151.2 rush yards per game.

What They Do Poorly: As good as the Cardinals are on the ground offensively, Arizona struggles to stop the run defensively. The Cardinals are allowing 119.5 rush yards per game which ranks 18th in the league.

538 Playoff %: 54%

538 Win Division %: 1%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: ARI -6.5 vs PHI

San Francisco 49ers 5-8

Best Win: 33-6 @ NE

Worst Loss: 43-17 vs MIA

What They Do Well: Run defense. San Fran ranks 8th in the league with 105.8 rushing yards allowed per contest.

What They Do Poorly: The 49’ers love gifting the ball back to their opponents after failing on offense. San Francisco ranks 30th in the league in interceptions thrown (15 through 13 games) and 18th in the league with 16 fumbles in 13 games.

538 Playoff %: 9%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: SF -3 @ DAL

Kansas City Chiefs 12-1

Best Win: 27-24 @ TB

Worst Loss: Only loss. 40-32 vs LV

What They Do Well: The Chiefs shine across the board. Kansas City ranks 2nd in the league in points per game (31.0), 1st in passing yards per game (317.5), and 1st in offensive yards gained per game (429.2) all while 5 throwing just 5 picks – the 2nd-lowest mark in football behind Green Bay.

What They Do Poorly: The Chiefs biggest weakness is a soft red zone defense. Opponents score a touchdown on KC 75.0% of the time when getting inside the 20. This is the worst percentage in the NFL.

538 Playoff %: Clinched.

538 Win Division %: Clinched.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: KC -3 @ NO

Las Vegas Raiders 7-6

Best Win: 40-32 @ KC

Worst Loss: 43-6 @ ATL

What They Do Well: Vegas does not need permission to pick up yards on the ground. The team ranks 12th in the league in rush yards per game (117.9). A decent passing game (14th in the league) helps Vegas rank 11th in total points scored per game (26.9).

What They Do Poorly: Vegas allows a lot of points – ranking 30th in the NFL with 30.1 points per game allowed to their opponents. The Raiders’ struggles defensively begin with their non-existent pass rush. Vegas ranks 31st in the league in sacks (15 through 13 games).

538 Playoff %: 21%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: -4.5 vs LAC

Denver Broncos 5-8

Best Win: 20-13 vs MIA

Worst Loss: 31-3 @ LV. Denver completed 1 pass.

What They Do Well: Punching it in against this Denver defense is easier said than done. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in defensive red zone TD% (48.98%). Denver is the only team to hold opponents below a 50% TD rate in the red zone.

What They Do Poorly: The Broncos rank dead last in the NFL in giveaways (29 through 13 games). The excessive giveaways hinder the Broncos’ offense. Denver ranks 29th in the league with only 19.8 points scored per game.

538 Playoff %: <1%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: DEN +6 vs BUF

Los Angeles Chargers 4-9

Best Win: 20-17 vs ATL

Worst Loss: 45-0 vs NE

What They Do Well: The Chargers are a top-10 offensive team, ranking 8th in the NFL in yards gained per game with 383.0 per game. LA ranks 4th in passing yards per game (270.4) and 16th in rushing yards per game with 112.6.

What They Do Poorly: The LA defense struggles to force turnovers. The Chargers rank 23rd in the NFL with 16 takeaways through 13 games. LA allows a lot of long drives and a lot of scores – ranking 26th in the league with 27.8 points allowed per contest.

538 Playoff %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: LAC +4.5 @ LV

Pittsburgh Steelers 11-2

Best Win: 38-7 vs CLE

Worst Loss: 23-17 vs WAS

What They Do Well: The Steelers do everything well. Pittsburgh ranks 1st in the league in takeaways (25 through 13 games) and opponent points per game (18.2). Offensively, Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the league in fewest giveaways (14) and 12th in points scored per game (26.8).

What They Do Poorly: Pittsburgh could do no wrong until 2 losses put a damper on their first-round bye hopes. The Steelers most glaring weakness is the lack of a consistent running game. Pittsburgh ranks 31st in rush yards per game with 89.1.

538 Playoff %: Clinched.

538 Win Division %: 90%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: PIT -13 @ CIN

Cleveland Browns 9-4

Best Win: 32-23 vs IND

Worst Loss: 16-6 vs LV

What They Do Well: The Browns look pretty good this year. Cleveland ranks 10th in the league in takeaways (20 through 13 games) and 3rd in rush yards per game (156.2).

What They Do Poorly: Cleveland gives up yards and points. The Browns rank 20th in the league in passing yards allowed per game with 249.0. The team ranks 27th in the league in points allowed per game with 28.3.

538 Playoff %: 87%

538 Win Division %: 2%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: CLE -4.5 @ NYG

 

Baltimore Ravens 8-5

Best Win: 47-42 @ CLE

Worst Loss: 23-17 @ NE

What They Do Well: The Ravens boast the league’s top rushing offense – ranking 1st in the NFL with 173.8 rush yards per game. Coupled with Baltimore’s excellent running game is a defense which ranks 5th in opponent points per game (21.0) and is tied for 2nd in defensive touchdowns (3 through 13 games).

What They Do Poorly: The Ravens struggle to move the ball through the air – ranking 31st in the league in passing yards per game with 168.1.

538 Playoff %: 88%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: BAL -13 vs JAX

Cincinnati Bengals 2-10-1

Best Win: 31-20 vs TEN

Worst Loss: 30-7 vs DAL

What They Do Well: Joe Burrow was fun to watch … till he got hurt.

What They Do Poorly: Cincinnati ranks 28th in football in rush yards allowed (131.7) and 21st in the league in defensive red zone TD% (63.3%).

538 Playoff %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: CIN +13 vs PIT

Green Bay Packers 10-3

Best Win: 37-30 @ NO

Worst Loss: 38-10 @ TB

What They Do Well: Green Bay leads the league in points per game (31.5) and is 2nd in both total yards per game (397.6) and passing yards per game (273.8).

What They Do Poorly: The Packers’ defense does not generate takeaways – ranking 28th in the NFL with 13 through 13 games. Also, Green Bay allows its fair share of red zone touchdowns – ranking 28th in the NFL with a defensive red zone TD% of 67.5%.

538 Playoff %: Clinched.

538 Win Division %: Clinched.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: GB -8.5 vs CAR

Minnesota Vikings 6-7

Best Win: 28-22 @ GB

Worst Loss: 40-23 vs ATL

What They Do Well: The Vikings gain a lot of yards – ranking 7th in football with 385.6 yards gained per game. The majority of the Vikings’ offensive production comes on the ground. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL in rush yards per contest (146.9).

What They Do Poorly: It is quite easy to pass on the Vikings defense. Minnesota ranks 26th in the league with 256.6 passing yards allowed per game.

538 Playoff %: 20%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: MIN -3 vs CHI

Chicago Bears 6-7

Best Win: 20-19 vs TB

Worst Loss: 34-30 vs DET

What They Do Well: The defense is alive and well in Chicago. The Bears rank 4th in football with a 52.3% defensive red zone TD%. Chicago allows the 13th-fewest yards per game in the NFL (347.5).

What They Do Poorly: Chicago can’t move the football efficiently. The Bears rank 25th in the league with 21.7 points scored per game. Chicago ranks 28th in yards gained per game with 319.8.

538 Playoff %: 20%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: CHI +3 @ MIN

Detroit Lions 5-8

Best Win: 30-27 vs WAS

Worst Loss: 20-0 @ CAR

What They Do Well: Led by veteran quarterback Matt Stafford – the Lions are a top-10 passing team in this league with 261.2 passing yards per game.

What They Do Poorly: Detroit allows a lot of running yards – ranking 28th in the league with 132.8 per game by opponents. The Lions don’t get big plays when they need them. Detroit ranks 30th with only 12 takeaways through 13 games and has not recorded a non-offensive touchdown all season.

538 Playoff %: <1%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: DET +11 @ TEN

New Orleans Saints 10-3

Best Win: 38-3 @ TB

Worst Loss: 24-21 @ PHI

What They Do Well: The Saints have a great offense – ranking 7th in the league in points scored per game (28.3) and 13th in yards gained per game (369.8). The Saints also excel defending the run – ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rush yards per game (89.2).

What They Do Poorly: The Saints hurt themselves with lots of unnecessary penalties – ranking dead last in the league with 64.8 yards per game.

538 Playoff %: Clinched.

538 Win Division %: 99%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: NO +3 vs KC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-5

Best Win: 38-10 vs GB

Worst Loss: 38-3 vs NO

What They Do Well: The Bucs boast the best rush defense in football with 80.9 rush yards allowed per game. Tampa’s defense is full of ball hawks – tied for 4th in the league with 21 takeaways through 13 games.

What They Do Poorly: The Bucs allow the 12th-most passing yards per game in football (249.4). Offensively, Tampa is tied for throwing the 10th-most picks in the league … very unBrady-like.

538 Playoff %: 97%

538 Win Division %: 1%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: TB -6 @ ATL

Atlanta Falcons 4-9

Best Win: 43-6 vs LV

Worst Loss: 20-17 @ LAC

What They Do Well: Atlanta boasts the #6 pass offense in the entire league with 268.9 pass yards per game.

What They Do Poorly: Atlanta struggles mightily defensively. The Falcons have recorded just 1 non-offensive touchdown all season and allow opponents to walk into the end zone once they get close. Atlanta ranks 29th in the league in defensive red zone TD% (68.2%).

538 Playoff %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: ATL +6 vs TB

Carolina Panthers 4-9

Best Win: 20-0 vs DET

Worst Loss: 46-23 vs TB

What They Do Well/Poorly: The Panthers are a very mediocre team – ranking near the middle of the pack in every single team stat.

538 Playoff %: <1%

538 Win Division %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: CAR +8.5 @ GB

Tennessee Titans 9-4

Best Win: 42-16 vs BUF

Worst Loss: 31-20 @ CIN

What They Do Well: Tennessee has only given the ball away 9 times this season – tied for the fewest in the NFL. The Titans control the ball so well because they have a strong running game. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league with 157.8 rush yards per game and are led by the best running back in football – Derrick Henry.

What They Do Poorly: The Titans allow the 12th-most points in football (25.8) and rank 29th in stopping the pass – allowing 273.6 passing yards per game to their opponents.

538 Playoff %: 96%

538 Win Division %: 61%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: TEN -11 vs DET

Indianapolis Colts 9-4

Best Win: 34-31 vs GB

Worst Loss: 45-26 vs TEN

What They Do Well: The Colts defense is tremendous. Indy ranks 5th in the league in opponent rush yards per game (99.2), 3rd in takeaways (22 through 13 games), and 1st in non-offensive touchdowns (7).

What They Do Poorly: Indy ranks 15th in the league in rush offense with 113.0 yards per game. The team also ranks 18th in the league with just 20 passing TDs through 13 games.

538 Playoff %: 91%

538 Win Division %: 39%

Week 15 Matchup/Line: IND -7.5 vs HOU

Houston Texans 4-9

Best Win: 41-25 @ DET

Worst Loss: 10-7 @ CLE

What They Do Well: Houston avoids giveaways. The Texans have turned the ball over just 14 times in 13 games which is tied for the 6th-fewest in the NFL. DeShaun Watson leads an excellent passing attack – his team ranking 6th in passing yards per game with 270.2.

What They Do Poorly: The Texans are hopeless against good running teams – ranking 31st in the league in opponent rush yards per game (152.3). The Texans may not give the ball away much, but they don’t force turnovers either. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL with only 8 takeaways. The next lowest is Denver with 11.

538 Playoff %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: HOU +7.5 @ IND

Jacksonville Jaguars 1-12

Best Win: Only win. 27-20 vs IND

Worst Loss: 34-16 vs DET

What They Do Well: They’re better than the Jets.

What They Do Poorly: Jacksonville ranks 28th in the NFL with 20.1 points scored per game and ranks 28th in points allowed per game with 29.5 … not good.

538 Playoff %: Eliminated.

Week 15 Matchup/Line: JAX +13 @ BAL