Surprise: Arsenal vs United is a Big Deal in England (and Nevada)

I am trying to remember if Paths of Glory by Stanley Kubrick has any soccer references or footage of enlisted men playing soccer. I can’t recall. But if modern sports are a metaphor of doomed warriors fighting over ant hills, then at least Arsenal and Manchester United can say they are taking the scenic – and less bloody – route in 2019.

The old rivals will meet again at Emirates Stadium this Friday (about Noon EST) in the 4^th Round of the 2018-19 FA Cup. Gambling odds are tremendously tight for the match, with a pick’em goal spread at BetOnline next to (+153) for Arsenal and (+167) for United on the 3-way moneyline. Draw is (+220) in spite of FA Cup rules that could prompt clubs to play aggressively in the 2nd half.

Neither squad is likely to challenge for the Premier League title. There have been too many lost points and frustrating Matchdays. Gunners have faced questions about the backline more than once as costly points were dropped 3-2 to Southampton and (before that) 2-2 to Crystal Palace. United’s season began as a well-documented series of vicious rumors and conflict until former manager Jose Mourinho was sacked.

Red Devils Starting to Cook

“I love football. I love working in football. And if you want to work in football this is the place to be.”

Ole ❤️ pic.twitter.com/pec2AWfncC

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) January 23, 2019

United has been feeling good vibes following Mourinho’s departure, most recently in the form of a 1-0 dismissal of Tottenham at Wembley Stadium on January 13^th.

The Red Devils followed-up 3 points against Spurs by thrashing Brighton 2-1 in a match that was not really that close. Paul Pogba scored on a penalty kick in the 23^rd minute, taking one more step toward reclaiming his World Cup form.

Marcus Rashford scored in both fixtures, giving the 21-year-old forward 8 goals and 6 assists in just 20 appearances this season. The hype machine in is full force for the young United star, with caretaker Ole Gunnar Solskjær proclaiming (perhaps unwisely under the circumstances) that Rashford can be the best attacker in the league now that Harry Kane is sidelined.

While Chelsea can be criticized for not having a single, grand, all-consuming superstar up front such as Ronaldo or Kane, it is not really a criticism because the finest scoring clubs on the continent are led by ensemble casts. Rashford owes a lot of his triumphs to veterans like Pogba and Jesse Lingard. The latter plays a dazzling game of football and has tallied 4 times in 19 appearances. David de Gea looks to be fully regrouped playing behind dependable center-back Victor Lindelöf.

Mugged Off

Arsenal is tied with United with 44 points after 23 Premier League matches, but the FA Cup match this weekend will not count toward that race.

We face Manchester United on Friday…

…so we thought we’d get this one out of the archive 😍

There’s nobody else like The King 👑 pic.twitter.com/lGYgNurIiY

— Arsenal FC (@Arsenal) January 23, 2019

There is a question as to whether managers Solskjær and Arsenal’s Unai Emery will play all of their heroes for close to 90 minutes in the 4^th Round, particularly given the teams’ arduous schedules in January. Arsenal played a healthy portion of reserve players in a 3-0 3^rd Round win over Blackpool. United was less diplomatic in the 3^rd Round against Reading, as FIFA star Romelu Lukaku was allowed to roam the pitch freely and scored to make it 2-0 right before half.

Arsenal could not have looked better on Matchday 23, keeping a clean sheet against Chelsea and likely knocking Kepa and the Blues out of the race for the top of the table.

A lovely 1^st half goal by Alexandre Lacazette was not an accident. The Frenchman gives Arsenal an incredible dynamic alongside Aubameyang. United has had issues against peculiar attacking formations this season, and it would help the Gunners to stay on the attack as much as possible this Friday.

Gunners only retained the ball for 35% of the match against Chelsea, a radically low mark considering that Emery’s squad was playing at Emirates. But counterattacks aggravated the Blues, who eventually took a pair of yellow cards as Arsenal peppered Kepa with 5 on-target shots.

The squad has also improved on the backline. To have held Chelsea to a handful of corner kicks, a single on-target shot and a whole lot of passing-for-naught is amazing considering the forward line of Hazard-Pedro-Willian that Arsenal faced last weekend.

Prior to that match, the Gunners were upset 0-1 by West Ham after Declan Rice scored on a tremendous strike late in the 1^st half. But look from a wide-angle lens, and Emery’s much-scorned group of defenders and midfielders have allowed 2 goals in 4 fixtures against 3 worthy opponents and an aristocrat (Fulham, Blackpool, West Ham, Chelsea).

FA Cup 4^th Round: Best Bet on Arsenal vs United

Each skipper is ultimately more at ease with his attack leading the day than his defenders plowing ahead with clearance after clearance. Arsenal’s formation vs United’s formation will lead to chances, even if United’s chances are better-defended by the Gunners than they might have been weeks ago when Emery’s team could not stop a League One club (which they literally did against Blackpool).

FA Cup rules permit a “4^th Round replay” in case a pair of teams draw after extra time.  United and Arsenal plan to be fighting for Champions League 2019-20 spots over the last dozen Matchdays of the EPL, giving managers a reason to try to bring the contention to boil this week. They could do it all over again…but what would be the point?

The draw odds (+220) are classic, but they are probably a little too short, putting added value on each of the other moneylines. Which one to take?

Take Arsenal to triumph at home, with a less-hyped (for the moment) front line that will pack all the punch needed to take down United 2-1.