Texas A&M at Alabama – Surreal Vegas Spread on #1 vs #22

The very best football programs tend to surprise everyone with their upside, at least once per year. Perhaps they’ll go 4-0 over a difficult stretch that everyone expected them to finish 3-1 or 2-2 in, or overcome a frosh-heavy roster to win their conference.

Alabama seems almost incapable of surprising us anymore. The Crimson Tide have won multiple national titles since the College Football Playoff became a reality, and certainly no one was shocked when Nick Saban’s 2018-19 (typically I refer to only the calendar year since who knows if a team will play on or after New Year’s – but let’s be real, it’s absolutely the 2018-19 Crimson Tide) squad roared through a pair of soft OOC opponents to begin the season. Louisville fell 51-14 in Week 1, and Alabama whipped Arkansas State by 50 in the 2^nd week. Tua Tagovailoa shined brightly at QB in his sophomore debut. But nobody was really that shocked by the halftime leads or the final scores.

And then came the 3^rd game.

Hosting Alabama last Saturday, the SEC’s Ole Miss Rebels opened the contest with a thrilling 75-yard touchdown from QB Jordan Ta’amu to sophomore D.K. Metcalf. As Isoroku Yamamoto said after his Japanese Navy attacked America in 1941, all the Rebels did was awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with resolve.

Tagovailoa threw 2 touchdown passes. Backup Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts threw 2 more. Alabama’s talented backfield added 3 rushing scores. The #1 ranked team in the nation led Mississippi 49-7.

In the 2^nd quarter.

Is ‘Bama threatening to turn all of NCAA football into one gigantic High School conference, with the Tide being the one private school with the scholarship kids? If this keeps up, we’re going to need a “mercy” rule of some kind.

Sportsbooks that have taken a plurality of bets on Alabama to cover are begging for mercy themselves. The consensus opening point spread for U-of-A vs Texas A&M was (-26) for the favorites in Tuskaloosa…and has risen as high as (-28) at some betting sites.

A look at select past results shows just how much the betting public is valuing the new-and-improved defending champs. Texas A&M came close to upsetting the #2-ranked Clemson Tigers on September 8^th – last season the Aggies played well against Alabama and lost in a very competitive scrum. Yet everyone is fully expecting a blow-out in 2018, despite the visitors having beaten Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 last Saturday.

I’m leaning toward a pick on A&M to cover. But that doesn’t mean the Aggies have any kind of significant chance to win. The spread is just too exaggerated.

If a team can lose to Clemson by 2, it shouldn’t be a 4-touchdown underdog against Alabama. Clemson’s offense will ebb and flow, and hopes to peak by January, not late September. But the Tiger defense is an excellent, consistent unit with an NFL-lite caliber defensive line. Dabo Swinney’s front-7 held an effective upstart offense to 7 points last week in a hurricane-addled home date against Georgia Southern.

That wasn’t the case in Week 2, as Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies bothered the defending ACC champions for 4 quarters, rallying in the 4^th before losing on a failed 2-point conversion try with less than a minute left. Quarterback Kellen Mond passed for 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions despite a struggling ground game.

It’s unlikely that Aggie running backs will find any easier sledding against the ‘Bama front-7, and Mond will have to deal with a brutal pass rush. Saban’s senior mercenary Christian Miller had 2 and a half sacks against Ole Miss from his linebacker spot, despite playing as part of a huge rotation and leaving the contest in garbage time. Ta’amu went only 7 for 22 with a pick-6 against last weekend.

However, it’s not as if Alabama could beat the Green Bay Packers. The Tide aren’t infallible, and they won’t automatically destroy everyone in the SEC like they’ve destroyed 3 relatively-weak opponents in the first trio of games.

I’m thinking this match-up will end with a final score of 35-13 or 42-17 as Saban takes a more cautious approach with a lead now that the Tide’s “virtual preseason” is coming to an end.

Take the Texas A&M Aggies to cover, but don’t expect a serious upset bid.