The Tigers’ Offense is so Terrible in 2022

In 1932, Albert Einstein infamously predicted there is no way “that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable”. The World Nuclear Association now reports 10% of the power on the face of the Earth is nuclear.

Einstein was wrong.

Western explorer Joseph C. Ives in 1858 wrote about the Grand Canyon that their exploration group “has been the first, and will doubtless be the last, party of whites to visit this profitless locality … [it] shall be forever unvisited and undisturbed”.

He, too, was very wrong.

In February of 2022, yours truly wrote that the Detroit Tigers will win over 80 games in 2022. On May 12th Detroit is 9-22, in last place in the American League, and on pace for 47 wins.

Are my prediction and over-77.5-wins bet doomed?

The goal today is to take a brief look at the Tigers’ first 31 games of this season – focusing exclusively on the offensive side of the ball. I want to chart a few numbers to help answer the question of why Detroit is struggling so mightily.

No Silver Lining for the Detroit Tigers Offense

Detroit is awful in nearly all offensive metrics. Batting average? 25th. Home runs? Dead last. Runs per game … also dead last.

The Tigers are below the curve in all of the common offensive categories as well as the “expected statistical” categories.

We live in the Statcast age where we can measure exit velocity and launch angle off the bat. Sabermetricians take these measurements and determine what a hitter’s stats are expected to be given the contact he is making. These are the “expected stats”.

Expected stats are denoted with an “x” at the beginning. xBA is expected batting average. xwOBA is expected wOBA.

Looking at the lime green bars, Detroit’s largest deficiency compared to the average big league club is in wOBA. Weighted on-base average aims to more accurately assign values to common offensive outcomes (singles, walks, home runs, etc.) and be more indicative of a players’ worth than traditional on-base percentage.

Notice how Detroit’s expected wOBA exceeds their actual wOBA. The same applies to their batting average. This would normally mean that the Tigers are getting robbed on hard-hit balls and will soon improve due to positive regression. 2022 is a different year than most, though.

Have you kept up with the MLB deadened ball rumors? Hitting stats in 2022 are way down compared to their expected hitting stats based upon the exit velocities and launch angles of the ball. xBA and xwOBA are tailored for normal conditions, not the Dead Ball Era 2.0.

Notice how the league averages in both xBA and xwOBA exceed their on-field counterparts. While it is true that the Tigers should be getting a few more hits, so should literally every other team in the league.

Offense is down league wide – not only in Motown. Detroiters just have it the worst.

The Tigers Hit Line Drives But Can’t Produce Runs

The Tigers hit a few more line drives than the average team – a desirable trait. They don’t hit many fly balls, however – nearly 4% fewer than the norm.

Typically line drives are the desired outcome of an at bat, but it is not working for Detroit. The Tigers fail to string hits together, given they are barely eclipsing a .200 batting average.

If hitting for average isn’t your thing, you have one of two options: hit for power or steal the opponent blind.

Curiously, the Tigers do neither. Their stolen base leader on the year has … 1 steal. Detroit’s rate of 91.3 plate appearances per home run ranks … you guessed it, dead last in the MLB.

So that’s why the Tigers suck. They don’t string hits together, they don’t score in chunks with the long ball, and they don’t pressure opposing defenses with the threat of the steal.

More on the Tigers’ futility to come, boppers.