Michigan State is currently sitting at the #6 spot in the nation in the latest AP poll. A tough Sunday road loss at #17 Purdue should not set Sparty back too much. An NCAA 2-seed in March seems likely, but folks in Lansing are craving that 1-seed.
My latest predictions have Michigan State sliding in with a 3-seed while Michigan wins the B10 and grabs a high 2-seed. My reasoning? Michigan is going to win their third straight Big Ten tournament championship, dealing Sparty a couple of losses in the process.
Michigan State Will Lose to Michigan at least Twice
Michigan has been in control of the interstate rivalry recently. Tom Izzo desperately wants to climb back on top, but Beilein has constructed his most talented team yet at Michigan, who seems to be perched securely atop the conference.
| Date | Site | MSU Result | MSU Line | Total |
| 2-7-17 | MICH | L 86-57 | +4 | 135 |
| 1-13-18 | MSU | L 72-82 | -9.5 | 136 |
| 3-3-18 | B10 Tourn. | L 64-75 | -5 | 135.5 |
Despite being favored twice, Michigan State has lost their previous 3 clashes with the Wolverines, losing by an average of 16.7 points. Sparty is also 0-3 ATS, falling an average of 20.2 points short of covering. Interestingly enough, the total has gone over in each of the 3 games, signalling that MSU’s defense routinely underperforms in this rivalry.
Izzo won 5 straight before Michigan took these 3 games. So what happened? Well, Tom Izzo is not fooling teams anymore. Maybe the longer he has stuck around the more predictable he has become? Check out these end-of-season finishes for Michigan State, by year, since Izzo has been in charge.
| Season | Overall | Conference | Postseason |
| 1995–96 | 16–16 | 9–9 | NIT Second round |
| 1996–97 | 17–12 | 9–9 | NIT Second round |
| 1997–98 | 22–8 | 13–3 | NCAA Sweet Sixteen |
| 1998–99 | 33–5 | 15–1 | NCAA Final Four |
| 1999–00 | 32–7 | 13–3 | NCAA Champions |
| 2000–01 | 28–5 | 13–3 | NCAA Final Four |
| 2001–02 | 19–12 | 10–6 | NCAA First Round |
| 2002–03 | 22–13 | 10–6 | NCAA Elite Eight |
| 2003–04 | 18–12 | 12–4 | NCAA First Round |
| 2004–05 | 26–7 | 13–3 | NCAA Final Four |
| 2005–06 | 22–12 | 8–8 | NCAA First Round |
| 2006–07 | 23–12 | 8–8 | NCAA Second Round |
| 2007–08 | 27–9 | 12–6 | NCAA Sweet Sixteen |
| 2008–09 | 31–7 | 15–3 | NCAA Runner-Up |
| 2009–10 | 28–9 | 14–4 | NCAA Final Four |
| 2010–11 | 19–15 | 9–9 | NCAA Second Round |
| 2011–12 | 29–8 | 13–5 | NCAA Sweet Sixteen |
| 2012–13 | 27–9 | 13–5 | NCAA Sweet Sixteen |
| 2013–14 | 29–9 | 12–6 | NCAA Elite Eight |
| 2014–15 | 27–12 | 12–6 | NCAA Final Four |
| 2015–16 | 29–6 | 13–5 | NCAA First Round |
| 2016–17 | 20–15 | 10–8 | NCAA Second Round |
| 2017–18 | 30–5 | 16–2 | NCAA Second Round |
| 2018–19 | 18–2 | 9–0 | — |
After frequenting the Final Four in the decade prior, Izzo has now failed to make it out of the first weekend of 3 straight NCAA tournaments. He has lost that magic he once possessed.
Sparty will play Michigan twice yet this regular season, once in February and once in March. They very well may meet up a third time in the B10 tourney. I see Michigan winning at least 2 of these matchups.
There were so many highlights in tonight’s victory over Indiana but here are just a few from @EdUofM!#GoBlue 〽️🏀 pic.twitter.com/TBOHa5JxH3
— Michigan Men’s Basketball (@umichbball) January 7, 2019
Bet Against Michigan State Against the Spread
Here is a stat for ya. Over the past 5 years, Michigan State has posted the best February ATS record in the Big Ten. They have been burning bookies for years. Check out the numbers.
| Season | ATS Record (%) | Avg Line |
| 2017-18 | 2-4 (33.3%) | -9.2 |
| 2016-17 | 5-2 (71.4%) | -0.4 |
| 2015-16 | 6-0 (100%) | -7.1 |
| 2014-15 | 4-3 (57.1%) | -6.6 |
| 2013-14 | 4-3 (57.1%) | -7.1 |
| Total | 21-12 (63.6) | -6.1 |
You know what happens when a team keeps winning ATS? The lines get stiffer. We saw a textbook example last year when Michigan State’s average line in February jumped from -0.4 to -9.2.
The books are tired of Sparty always winning ATS in February, right? Sparty is playing very well this year so far, right? This is the perfect storm for inflated lines that force MSU to cover a few extra points than they should.
The books dabbled with this last season, and it worked. I doubt they are going to revert back after just one season of harsh lines. I will be betting against Michigan State ATS (and SU when they are playing Michigan) all February and capitalize on these imminent upsets.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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