Top 5 Locked In – Niners, Eagles Control Destiny in Static Week 17 NFC Playoff Picture

This is the NFC Playoff Picture. For the Week 17 AFC Playoff Picture, click here.

Here’s a legitimate question: which conference is stronger this year in the NFL? 

Some years it is obvious, but it seems like a tossup in 2021. Both sides have legitimate arguments.

The AFC is extremely bunched up and will come right down to the final game while the NFC is 75% decided already after Week 16.

Breaking Down the NFL’s Conferences Team by Team

One oft-used argument in debates like this is which conference has the best team. Some might say it’s the Chiefs which would mean the AFC is stronger. Others might claim that the Buccaneers deserve to be number one in the power rankings.

Even the Packers deserve to be in the conversation, as do the Rams and – dare I say – even the Titans.

I like comparing the conferences seed by seed. I think that is a balanced way to approach this debate.

The number 1s right now are the Packers and Chiefs. Andy Reid got the best of Matt LaFleur in an ugly, defensive focused game back in Week 9, so I will give the nod to the Chiefs.

The 2s right now are the Titans and the Cowboys. Sure, the Cowboys have a better record but I’m still really high on the Titans.

Look at who Tennessee has beat this year. They’ve beaten the Colts twice, while also beating the 49ers, Bills, Chiefs, and Rams! If this was college basketball we would say that is an extremely impressive tournament resume.

The Titans have lost a couple of games to teams they should not have lost to – which is what is keeping them down at 10 wins.

Fox sports personality Colin Cowherd says that when evaluating a team we should ignore their best game and their worst game – treating those as outliers – and then analyze what’s left.

Ok, let’s take out the blowout win over the Chiefs and their confusing 2-score loss to the Texans. What’s left? You have a team that is 9-4 with wins over the Colts (2x), Bills, and Rams.

Let’s not forget that they played half of the season after losing the best player in the league and being unable to effectively run the football.

I know the Cowboys are very good this year but I’m not ready to hop on that train just yet. I think that the Titans are the superior 2 seed.

The NFC’s 3 seed is the Rams going up against the AFC 3 seed which is the Bengals. I think we have to give the advantage to the Rams here although Matthew Stafford is extremely unproven in the postseason. But let’s not act like Joe Burrow isn’t.

The 4 seed battle is the Bucs and the Bills. Tom Brady has made a career out of beating the Bills. I see no reason that stops this year.

The 5 seed battle is extremely interesting – Cardinals versus Colts. They just played last week. We have to give this one to the Colts who won the game, but these are 2 very evenly matched teams.

Sure, the AFC has many good teams that are still in the hunt – like the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers who are probably better than the NFC teams in the hunt like the 49ers, Eagles, and Vikings, but I don’t want to harp on that too much. Those low seeds are very unlikely to even survive Wild Card Weekend and probably will not factor into the overall playoff picture.

In an average year can you really expect more than one low seed to rise up and beat a 12 or 13-win team? Probably not.

So, all of this is to say that the NFC appears to be slightly stronger this year.

We do know this much, there’s far more uncertainty in the AFC right now than in the NFC. Here’s a snapshot of the current NFC standings.

3 NFC teams clinched the division with wins this weekend.

The Packers held on at home and topped the Browns by a couple of points, the Buccaneers dominated the Panthers, while the Cowboys flexed their muscles and delivered the largest margin of victory against the Redskins in the storied history of that rivalry.

With 75% of the divisions locked up and the NFC West being just a 2-team race – there are not as many clinching scenarios to write about as there are in the AFC.

The top-5 seeds are all locks and the 49ers and Eagles control their destiny for the last two spots. The 3-way tie of 7–8 teams – the Vikings, Falcons, and Saints – will need some help if they want to get into the playoffs, but those scenarios are rather straightforward.

Unlike the AFC where some star power and some good teams are bound to get snubbed, no good teams are going to miss the NFC playoffs.

Let’s take a look through the clinching scenarios for the various teams in the NFC so that you know what to root for and can determine the chances that your team will make it into the postseason.

Green Bay Packers 12-3

The Best Record in the NFL – 89% Chance to Get the Bye

As the sole owner of first place in the conference, the bye is Green Bay’s to lose.

Haters will point to the fact that the Packers have won their last 2 games by a total margin of 3 points, but hey, wins are wins. This is the NFL.

Much like how it can actually be beneficial for an undefeated college basketball team to lose a couple games in February to bring them down to earth, by almost blowing big leads against both the Ravens and Browns – the Packers have identified a flaw.

Aaron Rodgers said as much in his weekly Aaron Rodgers Tuesday interview on the Pat McAfee show. Because LaFleur and the Packers allowed these AFC North opponents to stick around and make the games uncomfortably close, the Packers will be sure to not let this happen in the games that really matter in January.

What Needs to Happen for Green Bay to Clinch the First-Round Bye

The Packers win out

• This is the luxury of controlling your destiny.

OR

The Packers win 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Cowboys don’t win out

• Should the Packers slip up and drop a contest to either the Vikings or Lions, only the Cowboys would have a shot to catch them.

OR

The Packers lose out AND the Cowboys lose out AND the Buccaneers don’t win out AND the Rams don’t win out

• Should the Packers lose both of their final 2 games, their chances of clinching the bye dwindle down to 1% – needing losses from the Bucs, Rams, and 2 from the Cowboys.

Dallas Cowboys 11-4

Won the East for 1st Time Since 2018

What Needs to Happen for Dallas to Earn the First-Round Bye

The Cowboys win out AND the Packers win 1 of their remaining 2 games

• The Cowboys are 1 game behind Green Bay in the standings but would win in a head-to-head tiebreaker scenario

OR

The Cowboys win 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Packers lose out AND the Buccaneers lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Rams lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games

• Dropping 1 of their final 2 games would give the Cowboys a very very slim chance of earning the first-round bye – needing help from everyone.

Los Angeles Rams 11-4

The Lone NFC Division Leader Yet to Clinch – 82% Chance to do So

What Needs to Happen for the Rams to Earn the First-Round Bye

Rams win out AND Packers lose out AND Cowboys don’t win out

• Seems simple enough, right? FiveThirtyEight says the odds of this scenario occurring is a mere 0.6%.

What Needs to Happen for the Rams to Clinch the NFC West

Rams win out

• LA controls their own destiny inside the division.

OR

Rams win at least 1 of their remaining 2 games AND Cardinals don’t win out

• Should LA stumble down the stretch and drop a contest to either Baltimore or San Fran, all it would take is sub-perfect play from Arizona for LA to clinch the division.

OR

Rams lose out AND the Cardinals lose out (or 1 loss, 1 tie)

• Losing out still gives LA a 25% shot at the NFC West title.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-4

Greater than a 99% Chance we See Them on WC Weekend

What Needs to Happen for Tampa to Clinch the First-Round Bye

Bucs win out AND Packers lose out AND Rams don’t win out

• The Bucs don’t care if the Cowboys tie them because Tampa won that Week 1 opener. Tampa can’t win tiebreakers against either the Packers or Rams, though.

Arizona Cardinals 10-5

First Time in Playoffs Since 2015

What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Clinch the First-Round Bye

Cardinals win out AND Packers lose out AND Cowboys lose out AND Panthers lose out AND Saints win out AND Browns win out AND Falcons lose out AND Buccaneers lose to Jets in Week 17 AND Rams beat Baltimore in Week 17 but lose to Niners in Week 18 AND Dolphins lose to Titans in Week 17 AND the Raiders beat the Colts in Week 17 AND the Re*****s lose to the Eagles in Week 17 AND Seahawks beat the Lions in Week 17 AND the Giants lose to Chicago in Week 17 but beat Washington in Week 18 AND the Bears lose to the Vikings in Week 18 AND the Texans lose to San Francisco in Week 17 and then don’t tie with the Titans in Week 18

• Wham bam thank you ma’am. Piece of cake.
• Just kidding about the piece of cake. This is one of the more improbable clinching scenarios I have ever seen. The chance for Arizona to pull this off is less than 0.1%. That’s not good.

What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Clinch the NFC West

Cardinals win out AND the Rams lose at least 1 of their remaining 2 games

• The Cards need to make up a game in the standings and can handle a head-to-head tiebreaker with LA

OR

Cardinals win 1 of their remaining 2 games AND the Rams lose out

49ers/Eagles 8-7

Each of these teams is in a similar position. Keep winning and you’re in. Have a misstep and there are some hungry dogs nipping at your heels waiting to prey on your demise.

Vikings/Falcons/Saints/Re*****s

These 4 teams are in trouble. They need to win and then hope either the 49ers or Eagles lose some games.

Full write ups next week once we get to 1 week remaining. There are just too many convoluted scenarios to write up for one article.