Tottenham vs Chelsea: Betting the Changing Premier League Odds on Matchday 18

Strange days are at hand (or afoot, more accurately) in the European football landscape.

The biggest story of the week is the riot in Barcelona. How could it not be? Michael Wilbon once reminded a group of Northwestern students, “don’t let anyone ever tell you sports isn’t a serious topic.” It’s situations like Wednesday’s El Clasico that Wilbon had exactly in mind. We sit around and dish about passes, shots, contracts, tactics, and temper tantrums on the pitch. But bloggers must be ready to cover “real” news at a moment’s notice whenever The Beautiful Game and the ugly side of politics collide.

My colleague Nikola has posted an excellent write-up of the explosive insanity around Nou Camp, which polluted the venue’s air with smoke and prevented supporters from leaving immediately after the 2nd half. Reports have indicated that at least a dozen Catalan independence activists were injured by baton-wielding police. The only bright spot – other than 0 deaths reported – is that although the protests were clearly timed to coincide with El Clasico there were no groups of angry fans contributing to the mayhem over a final score or an admittance controversy. We’ve all seen enough of that for 100 lifetimes.

Then there’s schedule-plagued Liverpool’s unhappy fate in the Carabao Cup quarterfinals. Aston Villa’s 5-0 victory at Villa Park is the 1st time in recent memory in which Liverpool has been shut down, shut-out and humiliated by a club outside the top tiers of Western Europe. In fact, it’s hard to scan back through the 2010s and find a worse result for Reds. Man City clobbered Liverpool 5-0 in 2017, but that was also a road loss, and against a far-mightier opponent. Stoke City pasted Liverpool 6-1 in 2015 which was the latter’s worst defeat in a 52-year span.

Reds will play in a FIFA Club World Cup final against Brazilian club Flamengo this Saturday, meaning that there are only 9 Premiership fixtures on the ledger for Matchday 18.

Obviously, line movements in London and Las Vegas are diddy-bump compared to the above stories. But that doesn’t mean things are any less hectic on the weekend’s betting board. Everton has impressed punters with a mid-season charge – for all the good it will do Toffeemen at this point – and the club is a popular pick to beat Arsenal on Saturday. Wolves has a shrinking line-to-win a match at Carrow Road despite falling to Tottenham in added time on Sunday. Gamblers appear to like Man City’s moneyline vs visiting Leicester despite a thin payoff, and Spurs vs Blues on Sunday owns 1 of the many goal-total lines rising with betting action.

Are the changes due to good old recreational betting pressure, or are we in store for fireworks on the final Matchday before Christmas? Let’s “unwrap” a handicap and see about the particulars.

Everton vs Arsenal

Everton has played 3 quality matches in a row…and we haven’t been able to say that since the season began. Toffees overcame Chelsea on 12/7 thanks to a pair of goals from young attacker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, drew 1-1 with Man United on December 15th despite an own-goal, and then gave Leicester City all kinds of problems in a Carabao Cup match that went to penalties (with Foxes prevailing 4-2).

Meanwhile, Arsenal is primed to move forward with the manager’s chair before Saturday’s kickoff. Mikel Arteta is the new man, an assistant coach from Manchester City who is totally untested at the helm of a professional soccer club.

We know that talented teams often have “jailbreak” stretches of victories when an ineffective coach leaves the dressing room. That doesn’t mean Arsenal is necessarily bound to play a superb 90+ minutes at Goodison Park in Saturday’s early match. But it does make me question why the line-movement would be racing toward Everton.

Even if there’s a 1-in-4 chance that a green-horned manager will spark something afresh in Gunners, that’s still enough to make a (+190) gamble worthwhile. Furthermore, Arsenal has more motivation as a top-10 club which can still make a run at a 2020-21 Champions League berth thanks to the logjam below Man City.

Pick: Arsenal

AFC Bournemouth vs Burnley FC

Cherries has the shorter line-to-win at Vitality Stadium thanks to home turf and the recent 1-0 upset of Chelsea. However, Clarets (+200) has been the better side against comparable opponents throughout most of November and December.

Pick: Burnley

Aston Villa vs Southampton FC

If there’s usually an invisible asterisk next to a Carabao Cup loss, outside of derby scenarios and the final 3 matches in the tournament, then there should be a gigantic blob of ink next to Liverpool’s 0-5 loss to Villa on Tuesday.

Reds made no bones about fielding a lineup of reserves with the team’s top talents already in Japan. Soccer historians are calling Tuesday’s squad the youngest-ever to play for Liverpool; not sure how we can verify that’s the case with the team’s records spanning 3 centuries, but a casual supporter would not have been familiar with most of the players dotting the pitch against Villains. 21-year-old Caoimhin Kelleher manned the posts, and I won’t pretend that I know exactly how to pronounce his name. Reds started an “H. Kane” on the left flank, but don’t get excited – it was 21-year-old Herbie Kane.

Still, you’ve got to think the momentum of trouncing a name-brand opponent and making an EFL semifinal run will help Aston Villa focus against Southampton on Saturday. Not to mention playing at Villa Park against a Premier League squad with a comparable lineup and similar form. The last time that scenario occurred, Villains beat Magpies 2-0.

Pick: Aston Villa

Brighton vs Sheffield United

Among several rising O/U totals prior to Saturday, the Over/Under market for this match has ticked up to (2.5) at Bovada Sportsbook with a (+115) payoff line on the Over and a (-140) line on the Under meant to tempt gamblers to the high side.

I’ll take the bait. Brighton’s attack has been remarkably steady against quality clubs in recent matches. Yes, Blades is known as a cautious and conservative side which lines up with 5 midfielders, few of whom are found massing around the opposing box even when trailing by a goal or 2 in the opening half. But it might be difficult for Sheffield to control the play away from home, and a 2-1 or 3-1 result is not an unlikely outcome.

Pick: Over

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace

Newcastle’s attack was hampered and hapless on Matchday 17 as Magpies took yellow cards at the front of the formation and did not achieve a single shot on-target against Burnley keeper Nick Pope. The visit from Crystal Palace on Saturday creates a very unpredictable match-up in which my gut instinct tells me CPFC will prevail. Therefore…

Pick: Newcastle (+145)

Norwich City vs Wolverhampton

Canaries appear to have a decent shot at staying in the Premiership if the club’s form continues to improve. However, Wolves out-played Spurs for most of last weekend’s dramatic fixture and has not lost an EPL match otherwise in quite some time.

Pick: Wolverhampton (-105)

Manchester City vs Leicester City

The moneyline odds on Saturday’s late match between Man City and visiting Leicester present an interesting conundrum. Bookmakers and gamblers alike are skeptical that Foxes (+650) can pull off an upset victory even though Citizens’ form isn’t what it was last season, and despite Manchester United accomplishing the feat at 9-to-1 odds just 2 Matchdays ago.

City has rebounded to win 3 matches in 3 separate competitions since falling 1-2 to MUFC on December 7th. Gabriel Jesus scored a hat trick as the Sky Blues walloped Dinamo Zagreb in UEFA Champions League play, and Kevin de Bruyne starred in a 3-0 road win over Arsenal that only made Gunners more urgent to bring in a new skipper. And unlike Liverpool, Man City played to win in this week’s Carabao Cup quarterfinals, allowing Raheem Sterling to score twice in a 3-1 victory over Oxford United.

It’s not as if Foxes has had a marvelous last 5 days. Leicester needed an own-goal from Norwich City to survive a Canaries visit last Saturday, failing to produce more than 5 on-target strikes despite taking a dozen corner kicks. But the King Power Stadium guests were as brutal as they were clever, running-up 5 yellow cards in the sort of desperate effort we can expect to see from bottom-3 clubs the rest of the way in 2019-20. City can’t afford to go insane committing fouls, and it’s unlikely that such a quality lineup would even want to under normal circumstances.

Clear away the smoke of the past few results and you’ve got Liverpool’s top challengers going 90+ minutes on a pitch. Anything could happen. Leicester’s chances to win might only be 1-in-4 but the 6.5-to-1 payoff line is mispriced despite Matty James still missing from the lineup. Memories of past seasons are playing into the popular handicap. This season, Sky Blues are vulnerable.

I’m advising a wait-and-see approach since it’s not probable we’ll see a rush of late-week wagers on the Foxes market. But punters should take advantage of the odds regardless.

Leicester (+1.5) is a solid gamble if you’ve lost in aggregate on the previous 6 matches. If you’ve had a fine Saturday and there’s a few extra units to play around with, though, don’t hesitate to place 1 or 2 on the visitors to win straight-up.

Pick: Leicester ATS

Watford FC vs Manchester United

Sunday’s match at Vicarage Road is also a tricky handicap. MUFC is winning or drawing its Premiership matches, and that’s progress, but it’s still hard to trust Red Devils after so many surprise let-downs and weird outcomes over the past 2 seasons.

Hornets might be the worst attacking side (relative-to-opposition) in all of English football at this point, however, posting 0 goals in 2/3rds of the team’s last dozen matches across all competitions. If you can find a nice exact-outcome proposition payoff on United 2-0, take it – if not the Under (2.5) or United-to-win (-130) aren’t bad wagers in this instance.

Pick: Exact-Outcome Prop “MUFC 2-0”

Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea FC

Spurs didn’t play all that beautifully last weekend, but survived with 3 points thanks to left-back Jan Vertonghen’s lovely tally off of a corner kick in the 91st minute.

Analysts are still criticizing Spurs set-pieces under Mourinho, and those of you who didn’t scroll past this week’s intro to get to the touts and picks (fair play in either case) might observe Tottenham’s shrinking (+135) moneyline as a product of betting pressure and favoritism. But my handicap agrees with the majority of public sentiment.

Lilywhites are playing timely football with a new manager, not perfect form by any means, but  enough cohesion that the squad can look to improve in days to come. Chelsea, meanwhile, may finally be hitting a wall after prevailing despite transfer restrictions through much of the season’s opening half. Blues are 1-0-4 in EPL play since mid-November and lost a bitter result to Cherries last Saturday.

For a line-movement due to recreational wagers, look at the Over/Under (3) instead. Chelsea’s current attack won’t overwhelm Paulo Gazzaniga, who is drawing praise in Hugo Lloris’ absence. Mourinho’s tactics will be cool and cautious following yellow cards from Harry Kane and a host of other stars against Wolves, and it may not auger well for Blues that Frank Lampard chose to replace Willian, Jorginho, and Christian Pulisic against Bournemouth. Chelsea is dealing with a host of injuries but will circle the wagons around Kepa even as Lampard considers replacing him.

Pick: Under