UCF at Memphis: Saturday Lock on the Point Spread

Vegas odds-managers undoubtedly expect the UCF Knights to win in a close, entertaining scrum over the Memphis Tigers. The payoff line on a straight-up UCF win is (-185) while Memphis is (+160), and the point spread is a meager (-4 ½) for the visiting Black & Gold.

Has Memphis done anything to get those kinds of stripes in Vegas – marked as less than a TD underdog to an undefeated steamroller putting on a streak for the ages? No, not necessarily. The Tigers trounced Connecticut by 31 points in their most recent outing, but UConn is one of the most inept football programs in the nation and is swimming in the dregs of the AAC. On the previous 2 weekends, the 4-2 Tigers beat middling Sun Belt teams. On the weekend prior, they lost to Navy.

You can always look at rivalry trends in a league match-up that appears to be handicapped too tight. Like the Giants vs Eagles rivalry in the NFL, bettors will not buy more than a 1-score spread if every game seems to turn into a classic.

Memphis had a blockbuster struggle against UCF last season. It started when tropical weather conditions forced a postponement of an early-season showdown. In late September the two schools played a make-up game in which the Knights dominated up, down, and sideways, controlling the ball with an incredible 350 yards on the ground.

But when the schools met for the conference title, it was a very different scenario. Memphis had reeled-off 7 wins in a row, including conquests over Houston and a ranked Navy squad. UCF’s McKenzie Milton was picked-off 3 times, but passed for almost 500 yards along with 5 touchdowns as the teams went to OT tied 48-48.

The Knights somehow triumphed, but it was not a badly-played 100-point game with a bunch of blown coverages. Each team gained more respect for playing physical football than in the Big 12’s infamous 61-58 Arena Bowl between TCU and Baylor in 2014.

Pundits will talk about the individual players returning from the unforgettable battle last December. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson is not playing ball in the Home of the Blues anymore, and WR Anthony Miller (who had almost 200 yards receiving against the Knights that day) is now playing for the Chicago Bears.

The Tigers have plugged-in precise QB Brady White and are still handing the egg to gifted tailback Darrell Henderson. They have been racking up big yardage totals and points aplenty against poor teams, but look what happens when they face a good’un.

In Week 2, Memphis faced the Navy Midshipmen, who controlled the ball with long drives as usual, limiting White’s opportunities to take rapid-fire snaps. The Tigers answered by fumbling 3 times and throwing a pick. Tulane is another run-heavy team that was able to mistreat White, stuffing Henderson and the Tiger run game while harassing the QB in a 40-24 upset win.

The O/U total is presently hovering at (79), an eye-popping total that shows just how much odds-makers and the betting public anticipate fireworks. UCF likes a high tempo and Milton loves to run a whole lot of plays. If both teams run more plays, it is likely that more points will be scored, and the contest becomes…less predictable?

Uh…no. The O/U may have logic behind it, but the point spread is too beholden to last year’s grudges. If more points are scored, UCF is more likely to win by 5+ points…not less likely.

Vegas has put an SEC point spread on a AAC contest. That could be a serious blunder.

Yes, Southern Methodist gave the Knights a few problems in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarter last weekend, and the score seemed to tighten for a while. However, that was after Milton and the Knights rang-up a 21-3 lead at the end of the 1^st frame.

Statistically, UCF gave every impression of an elite squad jogging through a warm-up before the important road trip, severely limiting the Mustangs by ground and air while allowing a few short completions.

In fact, the Knights’ record against mid-majors is a positive, not a negative, considering that the UCF defense resembles an above-average unit from the Big 12 (think Iowa State) plunked-down in the Group of 5.

While the Knights were beating Pittsburgh, they allowed the ACC’s proud Panthers just over 250 yards of total offense. Penn State allowed Pitt a 100-yard rusher. Central Florida did not. Pittsburgh beat a resurgent, brawny Syracuse team 44-37 in OT last week.

Players like Gabriel Davis and Adrian Killins Jr. will get the most hype and credit – after all, they catch and run with the ball. But it is the fact that the UCF program is playing at a high Power-5 level on offense, defense, and special teams, yet is being handicapped by Vegas and the betting public like a mid-major, which interests me even more than the school’s crazy unbeaten streak.

Do not bet against streaks. Do not bet against teams that could win in the Big 12 or the Pac-12…especially when they are up against a squad that has lost every time it hasn’t simply out-matched an opponent in size and speed. Do not bet against UCF.

Take the Central Florida Knights to win by more than (4 ½) points on Saturday.