UEFA Champions League: Ajax vs. Atalanta Preview, Odds, Prediction

There is no other option for Ajax but to beat Atalanta to secure the Round of 16 of the Champions League. The Lancers are one point away from the Italians, and they won’t proceed to the next stage if they fail to beat the guests. La Dea’s win over Liverpool on the road proved to be a difference-maker, and that allows them to have an extra option when it comes to the outcomes in tonight’s event. However, knowing Gasperini, he won’t be calculating too much, but instead, go for a win.

Preview

Ajax (+120) suffered a shocking defeat at home this weekend against Twente, 1-2. There were lots of unusual stuff in their performance, and even though the Lancers had the initiative, they couldn’t score. Maybe it was the pressure due to the upcoming event, with the players thinking about it, or something else we can’t quite tell.

What we do know is that the match against Twente was ninth over the past ten for Ajax, with over 2.5 goals. Also, it was the sixth in the latest seven at Amsterdam Arena, with them allowing a goal.

The Dutch powerhouse played eight contests at home since the season started, winning six and losing two, with a combined goal-difference of 25-8.

Atalanta (+190) is in bad form, having just one win in the previous six attempts. And that one might be the most important for their season, beating Liverpool at Anfield, 0-2, making a huge break on the road. As said previously, they have a one-point edge over the future rivals, and that was because of that victory in England.

Overall, La Dea is not playing its usual football anymore. They were the most efficient team in the top five European national leagues last year, and now we can’t recognize their performances.

The most recent five fixtures saw all saw under 2.5 goals, three of them just one side scoring. It is as if they switched to the “good, old” Italian tactical style of football.

Latest News

Kudus is out for Ajax, that is for sure. David Neres is still questionable, with the young forward having ankle problems.

Atalanta has several players who didn’t travel to the Netherlands at all. Caldara, Miranchuk, Mojica, and Pasalic are all ineligible for this clash.

Head to Head Matches

The first game in Bergamo saw a draw, 2-2. Ajax took the lead, going at halftime with a 0-2 advantage. Still, the home team came back, with two quick goals in the early part of the second half.

Prediction

There is no room for any tactics here, especially for Ajax, who needs to attack right from the start. The Lancers are very good when creating pressure, and we really believe that they can’t have back-to-back matches with poor efficiency. Meanwhile, Atalanta has colossal offensive potential, and they should use all the space behind Ajax’s midfield. Our intuition tells us to bet on over 1.5 goals in the second half. Both sides will drop the mask in the second 45 minutes, which is when the majority of the action should occur. The odds here are -195.