UEFA Champions League: Is There Any Betting Value Left in Liverpool?

There were many opinions on how Wednesday’s maiden Champions League semifinal leg between Liverpool and host Barcelona would go. Few of them involved abject embarrassment for either team.

At the very least, experts felt that Mohamed Salah and his Premiership club – currently vying for a domestic league title – would give Blaugrana a hard time of it.

Instead, the Reds made a Messi.

With the score 1-0 in favor of the Spanish side midway through the 2^nd half, Lionel Messi reminded fans around the world why he is still considered one of the true icons of European football, rivaling names like Ronaldo, Neymar, and Agüero.

In the 75^th minute, Messi led a devilish counterattack that left the Reds’ backline standing in bewilderment. Barcelona striker Luis Suárez wound up hitting the crossbar in a bid for his 2^nd goal of the contest, but the play had already dropped Liverpool left-back Andrew Robertson to his knees. In a flash, Messi ran in to capitalize and give FCB a commanding 2-0 lead at Camp Nou.

About 7 minutes later, the “Messiah” wowed supporters with a penalty kick that would have been worth 4 or 5 goals if only style points were added to the tally.

Alas, the referee only counted it for 1. Still the lovely top-corner strike gives Barcelona an almost-unimpeachable 3-0 lead on aggregate as the tie moves to Anfield next Tuesday afternoon.

Liverpool-FCB: Why Bovada’s 2^nd-Leg Odds Favor Reds

It is seldom that a sports franchise which just got its socks blown-off by an elite team would be cast as the favorite by Las Vegas and London in the rematch.

But take a look at the lines at Bovada Sportsbook – Barcelona is a (+ 0.5) goal underdog on Tuesday. Liverpool’s moneyline is even pushing short of “even” odds at (-105) for the Reds to prevail in 90+ minutes.

Consider the UEFA rules and you’ll understand why. If Liverpool had scored on just 1 of its 15 shot attempts on the road in the maiden leg, the side could advance on the “away goals” tiebreaker rule with a 2-0 win in the next match. After all, Barça hasn’t scored at Anfield…yet. Given an 0-3 deficit, however, it would take a miracle rally for the Reds to even come close to advancing to the Champions League final in June.

FCB skipper Ernesto Valverde knows that. His task is not to lead the Spanish club to a win in the 2^nd match – a victory is not needed. Barcelona must only maintain a lead on aggregate. If Messi (or another Barça footballer) scores on Tuesday, then even an aggregate draw would be good enough to earn an appearance at Wanda Metropolitano to face either Tottenham Hotspur or Ajax for the UEFA crown.

That leaves LFC in desperate straits. But even those who bet on a club in a given match can wind up at cross-purposes with the coach and players. Gamblers and bookies are handicapping which team will score more goals on May 7^th. If Liverpool “prevails” 1-0 or 2-0 on Tuesday, Salah and his mates will be disappointed…but those who took the favorites’  moneyline will be happy with the betting outcome.

How the Match Could Go at Anfield

Barcelona is playing a style similar to the tactics Leicester City used to shock the Premiership in 2015-16, though with much more talent on-hand and more flexibility in formation and tactics.

4-4-2 alignments are sometimes associated with defensive football. But when you’ve got a forward line of Messi and Suárez, the pair creates as much offense as a 3 or 4-man attack by an average elite-level club. The presence of a 4-across midfield and 4-across backline anchored by venerable vets like Gerard Piqué ensures that most opposing rushes will be stopped in their tracks, leading to counter-attacking chances for the forward pair.

It’s a deadly formula. Barcelona crushed Man United 3-0 in a concluding leg at Camp Nou in the UEFA quarterfinals with a 4-3-3 formation, but Valverde’s strategy of first stopping Mohamed Salah and then roaring back up the pitch against out-of-position midfielders may be an impossible scheme for the EPL footballers to solve in time.

Liverpool’s moneyline is balderdash. In fact, I’m strongly considering Barça’s (+250) moneyline for 5/7.

The leading club may play cautiously in the early-going trying to ensure an aggregate win above all else. But Barcelona has already prevailed comfortably in La Liga – the same can’t be said for Liverpool in its domestic league race against Manchester City. Furthermore, the visitors’ All-Star lineup is clearly having fun on the pitch.

There won’t be any governing a spirited FCB attack in the 2^nd half if the Reds are demoralized with no hope of advancing. Against all of his competitive instincts, host manager Jürgen Klopp may be compelled to pull back on the reins and try to ward-off any injuries to his own superstars if the team faces a losing cause in the 70^th or 80^th minute of play. If Messi gets opportunities with the ball, he’ll score again. Why not?

That’s a tout that relies on a lopsided aggregate score in the 2^nd half, however.

Suppose that Salah or Sadio Mané scores a goal or 2 in the first 45+ minutes just to make things interesting. Liverpool’s closing of the gap could reverse the psychological roles of the squads, forcing Barcelona to anxiously defend while the desperate Reds pour it on.

Rover, Rover, Let Your Wager Go Over

The better wager could be the Over (3), even with Bovada’s stiff 25% vig attached to the current (-125) market.

No matter what, Liverpool will not hesitate to attack with all-comers in the 1^st half, since a flurry of early goals is the Reds’ only chance to put pressure on Barcelona.

Chances are slim that Valverde will send midfielders pressing forward or line up a 3^rd attacker next to his legendary pair. FCB will stick to counterattacking. But that leaves Liverpool vulnerable to giving up more goals, since the Premier League club has absolutely no choice but to attack with 9 or 10 players in the 1^st half.

If the Reds manage to score in the opening minutes, all hell could break loose. If Barcelona asserts its dominance once again, don’t expect the visitors to stop netting tallies out of sympathy or caution.

Sometimes in the UEFA format even the winning club has nothing to lose.

Take the Over (3) for a winner at Anfield.