UEFA Champions League: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Preview, Odds, Prediction

Manchester City and Real Madrid open the UEFA Champions League semis on Tuesday night at the Etihad Stadium. We’ve seen these two sides meeting in the past, most recently in the 2020 edition knockout stage. Both sides want to reach Paris and the finals, but there is only a place for one. Guardiola has a long history with Real, since he led Barca and Bayern. On the other side, Carlo Ancelotti faced City several times as well. We have all the ingredients for one bombastic matchup.

My dear friend and colleague, Kurt Boyer, prepared a preview of both semifinal matchups, but besides that, we bring two separate articles each focused on one contest.

Preview

Manchester City (-200) made a perfect intro for Tuesday’s event, trashing Watford at home, 5-1, heating up the machine for Los Blancos. Everything was in perfect order for Guardiola and his guys, and we can say that the morale is at the highest possible level.

City had a three-game streak in which they haven’t won, posting two draws, vs. Liverpool and Atletico and then losing to the Reds in the FA Cup semis. Only the defeat at the Wembley had negative consequences on their competitive plans.

The previous two of their UCL games at home were under 2.5 goals, and the Citizens kept their net intact. There is a huge difference between the EPL and the UCL game plans, because Guardiola uses conservative tactics in Europe.

Real Madrid (+500) had several days more to rest due to a pause in the Spanish La Liga. They eliminated Chelsea in the previous round after a lot of trouble. As you remember, the first game in England ended 1-3 for Los Blancos, but the Blues were very close to making an upset in the second leg. Benzema and Modric saved Real in extra times, pushing them to the next stage.

In the last 10 games, Real posted eight wins and had just two defeats, strangely, both at Santiago Bernabeu – one against Barcelona and the other vs. Chelsea.

Now about the efficiency of their games. Nine in the last 10 were with over 2.5 goals, and seven were with both teams scoring. After Benzema got back on the field, Real’s tactics became much more offensive. Previously, we saw Ancelotti using a conservative approach and relying upon counter-attacks.

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Mendy is the only one unavailable for the hosts. However, Josh Stones and Kyle Walker are questionable, the same as Nathan Ake. This could be problematic for Guardiola.

On the other side, Real is in bigger problems. Bale, Casemiro, Hazard, Jovic, Marcelo, Mendy, and Vallejo are all injured. Casemiro’s absence is the biggest trouble here. David Alaba is doubtful.

Head to Head Games

In 2020, City and Real met in the round of 16. The Citizens were better in both events, with the same result, 1-2. In both of them, Real took the lead first, but the English side came back.

Also, four of the past five meetings were with both teams netting.

Prediction

This is the opening leg of the matchup, so we don’t expect to see too much offense from either side. The margin for error here is way too narrow, so both managers will be careful. Our pick would be 2 or 3 goals, with the odds at +110.

Pick: 2 or 3 goals +110

Here is the preview for Liverpool vs. Villarreal game