UFC 230: Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis Preview and Betting Guide

Who could have guessed that a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis would headline a Madison Square Garden pay-per-view in 2018?

Cormier, who is also the light heavyweight champion of the UFC, will be defending his heavyweight title for the first time since knocking out Stipe Miocic in the first round at UFC 226.

And then there’s Lewis, who was only recently involved in one of the worst-rated fights of all-time – on that same night at UFC 226 – when he and Francis Ngannou “fought” for a lackluster 15 minutes.

It’s amazing how things change in mixed martial arts, though, because Lewis is now riding a wave of popularity from his spectacular comeback victory against Alexander Volkov just one fight later.

He’s now fighting Cormier for the title.

Join us today as we break down the headline fight of UFC 230, taking place this Saturday, November 3, at Madison Square Garden, New York, on pay-per-view.

As always, we’ll be using the same MMA betting strategy that has helped us turn a profit for readers here at WagerBop in the last two months.

Let’s get started.

Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis

UFC 230
Saturday, November 3
Main card starts at 10:00 pm (ET) / 7:00 pm (PT)

While everyone is quick to point out Derrick Lewis’ fast turnaround after UFC 229, it’s important to consider that Daniel Cormier is taking this fight with just four weeks notice, as well.

Why did “DC” jump at the chance to defend his title against Lewis and not anybody else?

It’s because Cormier was, of course, enticed by the opportunity to compete at Madison Square Garden.

But mostly, Cormier feels like he doesn’t need more than four weeks of preparation to defeat Lewis – something that could not be said about the former heavyweight champion, Stipe Miocic.

The bookmakers and the public share Cormier’s confidence as we approach this fight.

Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis Betting Odds

• Daniel Cormier: -525 (SportsInt.)
• Derrick Lewis: +550 (BetDSI)

Remarkably, Derrick Lewis is the biggest underdog of the night and currently sits at +550 with SportBet.

Sure, that’s a mighty tempting line for those who recently tuned in and witnessed Lewis’ nasty knockout finish of Volkov, but it’s one that we’re going to be steering away from for a variety of reasons.

Daniel Cormier

Record: 21-1-0
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 245 lbs
Reach: 72″

Daniel Cormier hasn’t opened as this much of a betting favorite since he stepped into the cage with Dan Henderson at UFC 173 in May 2014, and we all know how that one went. Cormier ragdolled Henderson and controlled him for the better part of three rounds before eventually securing the rear-naked choke finish.

In his last fight, Cormier stepped into the cage against Stipe Miocic as a moderate betting underdog. But “DC” proved that his power can hold in the division and crushed the champion in the first round to claim the title.

Cormier has now stopped his opponent in all three of his last victories (2 KO/TKO & 1 submission).

Derrick Lewis

Record: 21-5-0
Height: 6′ 3″
Weight: 260 lbs
Reach: 79″

Don’t be fooled into thinking that Derrick Lewis was awarded this main event title shot against Daniel Cormier for his memorable post-fight interview alone. No, Lewis is fully deserving of his UFC title shot and his recent track record tells you everything you need to know. Lewis has won nine his last ten fights in the heavyweight division – an extraordinary feat.

It’s extremely uncommon to see Lewis considered as this much of an underdog. The only time he’s even been close to these odds of +550 was when he was when he faced Jared Rosholt in 2012 at Legacy Fighting Championship 13. Lewis was a +430 underdog on some sites and went on to finish Rosholt in the second round by KO/TKO.

Fight Breakdown

Remember when Cormier was challenging Miocic for the UFC Heavyweight Championship and most of the talk was about whether his skills and attributes would translate to the 265-pound division, despite his previous accomplishments as a heavyweight?

Well, he stunned almost everyone when he flattened Miocic with a crisp set of punches in round one and did what many other natural heavyweights were unable to do.

Now, the question can be asked again, but for different reasons. On that night at UFC 226, Cormier actually weighed in heavier than Miocic. This time, he’ll be giving up a 20-pounds or more to a challenger who actually cuts weight to make the heavyweight division.

Derrick Lewis on top of anybody is bad news, but it would be an especially terrible outcome for Cormier, considering the size disparity in this one. We’ll come back to that later.

For now, though, take note that although Lewis possesses a size advantage and brutal one-punch knockout power, Cormier’s technique is sublime and will be the largest point of differentiation between these two fighters. Expect Cormier to avoid taking damage while also working the challenger over with kicks and dirty boxing. Eventually, when the time is right, Cormier will likely shoot in and take Lewis to the mat – where the challenger has had trouble in the past.

But don’t expect this to happen too soon.

Cormier is certainly aware of Lewis’ imperfect cardio and will likely gameplan to stay in front of him and tire him out. By the second and third round, Lewis will be ripe for the picking.

But that’s where the size becomes a factor. Although we expect Cormier to take Lewis down with ease, the real problem will arise when he is presented with an opportunity to take the neck and submit his opponent. Will he give up a dominant position to risk the chance of Lewis landing on top of him? Definitely not until Lewis is greatly fatigued.

If you can recall how Stipe Miocic handled the beast (at the time) that was Francis Ngannou, the champion essentially just grounded him and took no risks on the way to a clear unanimous decision. Cormier won’t merely ride the challenger until he hears the scorecards later in the night, but he will certainly take his time before looking for the finish, either by KO/TKO or submission.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier to win inside the distance

Best Bets for Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis

Here are our top selections for UFC 230’s main event:

• Daniel Cormier to win in round 3: +800 (Bet365)

Betting on Daniel Cormier to win at odds of -525 isn’t a good selection due to the high volatility of mixed martial arts fights.

It’s likely that Cormier drags this fight deep into the second round and third round before securing the finish.

This expectation is also boosted by the fact that Lewis is a slow starter and fights at an unusually slow pace. Lewis’ opponents have had a difficult time adjusting to his style early in the fight.

Cormier is known finisher, whether by KO/TKO or submission and is indeed capable of stopping Lewis.

• Fight starts round 2: -154 (5Dimes)

We’re betting against what we saw from Daniel Cormier against Stipe Miocic with these two bets.

Since we’re expecting a strategic approach from Cormier, especially during the opening five minutes, he’ll likely play it cool and get a read on Lewis. Likewise, Lewis rarely ever pushes the pace of a fight and will likely sit back and wait for his opportunity to counter.

The narrative also supports our bets. Cormier has not much to gain from this fight but a lot to lose. With a win, he likely cements his position as the opponent for Brock Lesnar in what will be a huge money-fight (and potential retirement fight). A defeat to Lewis would negatively impact his legacy, something he values even more so than money.

If this fight starts as slowly as we’re expecting, we’ll cash in on ‘Fight starts round 2’ and be in with a decent chance at +800 odds for Cormier to win in round 3.