UFC 230 Main Card Preview and Betting Guide

The build-up to any UFC event is typically prone to disaster, but UFC 230’s fallout proved to be one of the worst in quite some time.

It was only a little under four weeks ago when the main event clash between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis came together. After Lewis’ impressive performance at UFC 229 and captivating post-fight interview (which also involved taking his shorts off and announcing the temperature of his balls), the UFC looked ahead and offered him a shot at Cormier and the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Before then, our promised co-main event was a highly anticipated lightweight battle between the returning Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier. That fight fell apart after Poirier announced an injury in training camp.

We’ve now landed here with Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis at the top of the bill followed by a middleweight contest between Weidman and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

Here’s the scheduled main card for UFC 230:

• Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis (🤑)
• Chris Weidman vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
• David Branch vs. Jared Cannonier (🤑)
• Karl Roberson vs. Jack Marshman
• Derek Brunson vs. Israel Adesanya (🤑)

We’ve identified three brilliant betting opportunities on the UFC 230 main card (conveniently marked with the ‘money mouth’ emoji) and will share our research and analysis with you, as always.

If you haven’t done so already, you can read all about our best bets for Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis before proceeding.

Let’s get into it!

David Branch vs. Jared Cannonier

UFC 230
Saturday, November 3
Main card starts at 10:00 pm (ET) / 7:00 pm (PT)

David Branch got screwed by the UFC yet again.

It’s not the UFC’s fault, really, and it’s more of a matter of circumstance, but Branch lost out on another high-level matchup with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (who replaced Luke Rockhold in the co-main event) and will now fight short-notice opponent Jared Cannonier.

This is uncharted territory for Cannonier.

Firstly, he’s making the drop down to middleweight for the first time in his career after competing for most of his career as a light heavyweight and even fighting some heavyweight fighters, as well.

The “Killa Gorilla” is also taking this fight on just two weeks notice. Cannonier was training for a fight with Alessio Di Chirico in Argentina on November 17, so he wasn’t exactly out of shape, he’ll just need to cut the weight quicker than expected. He’ll also need to come up with a game plan to defeat the very talented David Branch.

David Branch vs. Jared Cannonier Betting Odds

• David Branch: -336 (SportBet)
• Jared Cannonier: +350 (BetDSI)

While the straight betting lines here seem to be on point, there are several notable opportunities for bettors here who want to bet on props.

Betting Opportunities

Although Branch is stepping into this fight as a moderate betting favorite (and is expected to win), the odds for a Branch stoppage don’t necessarily reflect the disparity in skills and attributes between these two fighters.

For instance, ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ is available at odds of +120 which reflects that the bookmakers and the public are mostly seeing a Branch decision victory at UFC 230.

Considering Cannonier’s ordinary ground game (best displayed against Glover Teixeira) and Branch’s ability to rack up submission victories (seven in his career) Branch has a real possibility of submitting the short-notice opponent here if this fight heads to the mat. The odds for Branch by submission are currently +450 at Intertops.

The problem is, though, we haven’t seen Branch rely on his ground game too much in the UFC just yet; he’s more than happy to keep it standing and exchange blows. Despite Cannonier feeling more at home when the fight is on the feet, Branch should still have a sizable advantage. A bet on Branch by KO/TKO can be had at +385 odds with 5Dimes right now.

But arguably the best bet of all is taking both selections combined and picking David Branch to win inside the distance at odds of +164 (available at SportBet and 5Dimes).

David Branch to win inside the distance: +164 (SportBet or 5Dimes)

Derek Brunson vs. Israel Adesanya

UFC 230
Saturday, November 3
Main card starts at 10:00 pm (ET) / 7:00 pm (PT)

One of the most fascinating fights of the night is the middleweight contest set to open up the main card.

Derek Brunson, who sits at #6 in the UFC’s official middleweight rankings, will defend his spot from the fast-rising Israel Adesanya (currently ranked #9).

Derek Brunson vs. Israel Adesanya Betting Odds

• Derek Brunson: +280 (BetDSI)
• Israel Adesanya: -282 (BookMaker)

These odds are almost the perfect example of when not to bet on the straight ‘to win’ market.

If we were making a prediction and not merely betting for value, we’d take Adesanya to win this one undoubtedly. However, there’s almost no reason to take him at odds of -282 and, likewise, betting on Brunson at odds of +280 isn’t recommended, either.

Betting Opportunities

At first, we were drawn to drawing value out of Adesanya by selecting a prop bet such as KO/TKO victory or to win by decision.

After all, we do believe that Adesanya’s striking will be much too polished for Brunson throughout three rounds. With excellent distance management and a diverse arsenal of punishing strikes from all angles, Adesanya will likely frustrate Brunson as the fight progresses.

This thought process (Adesanya by KO/TKO) gained traction after listening to Adesanya on a recent episode of Ariel Helwani’s MMA Show. Adesanya believes that with a ‘spectacular win’ over Brunson, he’ll put himself at the front of a line for a shot at the UFC Middleweight Championship.

So, don’t be expecting Adesanya to cruise to a decision victory much as he did against Brad Tavares in his last outing.

Instead, Adesanya seems willing to take more risks than usual in the hope of securing a brilliant finish.

Should we bet on ‘Adesanya to win by TKO/KO’ at odds of -105 then?

Nope.

We haven’t seen the type of killer instinct in Adesanya that would be needed to get behind those odds, especially after grinding out decision wins against Tavares and Marvin Vettori.

Instead, the real value here is to take Derek Brunson to win by KO/TKO.

Brunson has ten first-round KO/TKO victories to his name through 24 fights and has finished all of his last six wins in the first round.

He’s a fast starter with heavy hands and is ultimately capable of finishing Adesanya with one clean strike.

It sure seems that the clearest path to victory for Brunson is not to win a tight decision against Adesanya but to overwhelm him with strikes in the first round.

For that reason alone, we believe the odds on Brunson to win by KO/TKO (+650) are far too generous. Furthermore, you can take these odds all the way up to +1000 if you back him to get the job done in the first round. We’ll stick with the first option, though.

Derek Brunson to win by KO/TKO: +650 (InterTops)