UFC 291: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Preview, Odds, Picks, Predictions

Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are the two UFC veterans and highly notable figures in the MMA world. They are going to clash at the UFC 291 in a lightweight event, which could easily be one of the last for either guy. Ferguson isn’t at the needed level to be the division’s elite, while on the other side, Green has been a gatekeeper for quite a while. Still, this is going to be a very fun bout to watch, precisely because both guys need a win here to stop the negative streak and extend their future in the UFC.

 Preview

Tony Ferguson (+330) comes in as an underdog in this battle, and that isn’t odd after seeing El Cucuy losing his last five bouts. Since the COVID-19 chaos and the cancellation of the bout against Khabib, everything went wrong for the American. He was undefeated for years before losing to Justin Gaethje.

Following that KO defeat, Ferguson experienced losses to Charles Oliveira in a title bout, then Beneil Darius, Michael Chandler (that fantastic front-kick KO) and most recently to Nate Diaz, a submission via guillotine choke. This isn’t the El Cucuy we all remember.

Ferguson’s physicality severely dropped, and we’ve seen him lose not only speed but flexibility. At his highest, this guy was one of the most durable fighters in the UFC. The way he relentlessly hunted the rivals in the octagon was impressive, and there weren’t many of them who managed to get away from El Cucuy. Notable victories in his CV are against Edson Barboza, Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone and many more. 

Bobby Green (-400) is an MMA and UFC veteran with 45 matches in his career. Now 29 were wins and 14 losses, with one draw and one no-contest. That was in his latest bout against Jared Gordon in April this year when the two accidentally clashed heads. 

Green is a solid, well-rounded fighter whose methods of wins are more or less equally distributed, with 10 KOs, eight submissions, and 11 decisions. He knows to fight well both in the standup and on the ground, but nothing spectacular. Overall, Green is average in all aspects of the battle, which is why he lasts this long in the UFC, but without a notable record. 

If you check his bio, Green lost all the matches against top names or some that were in the upper part of the rankings. The most recent two were KOs against Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober in the first and the second round, respectively. The biggest wins were against Al Iaquinta and Clay Guida, but that happened with the two being far from their peak.

Prediction

Ferguson’s physical condition was terrible in the past two or three bouts, and we don’t think it has improved now. Furthermore, with the way it rapidly deteriorated in the past, it could be even worse. Green, on the other side, looks decent, despite his losses. Simply, he was weaker than all those guys who recently defeated him. But here, he has a nice chance of winning and taking a scalp from one of the bigger names in UFC history. That’s why we are all in on Bobby here. For the courageous one, go with Green via KO, +150. 

Pick: Bobby Green wins -40