UFC Fight Night 138 Main Card Preview and Betting Guide

The UFC is back in your life (sorry, Ariel Helwani).

Remember when Khabib Nurmagomedov stupidly scaled the side of the octagon and attempted to attack Dillon Danis, Conor McGregor’s training partner?

Of course you do.

That was the final lasting memory from what was an otherwise spectacular event almost three weeks ago. But the show must go on.

And there’s arguably no better time to visit our friendly folks in Canada, so the UFC has arranged a trip to Moncton, New Brunswick, this weekend for UFC Fight Night 138.

Make sure to check out our preview and prediction for Volkan Oezdemir vs. Anthony Smith.

As always, we’ve watched countless hours of mixed martial arts action to bring you our best bets for UFC Fight Night 138. We’ll use the same MMA betting strategy that helped us hit on all four bets at Bellator 208, including two underdog selections.

Let’s get started!

Michael Johnson vs. Artem Lobov

UFC Fight Night 138
Saturday, October 28 – 11:55 pm (ET) / 8:55 pm (PT)

It’s not what we were promised, but Michael Johnson vs. Artem Lobov could still be an exciting clash.

After Zubaira Tukhogov was removed from the card last week (due to his involvement in the craziness that occurred after Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor), Johnson stepped up and accepted this fight on short notice.

And there was likely no hesitation before signing the dotted line.

Michael Johnson vs. Artem Lobov Betting Odds

• Michael Johnson: -500 (William Hill)
• Artem Lobov: +475 (BetOnline)

Lobov opened as a +220 favorite and has since shifted all the way out to +475 on BetOnline, as seemingly no one wants to get behind the T-Rex armed Russian.

Standing across from him is an ever-dangerous striker, Michael Johnson, who recently secured a narrow split decision victory over Andre Fili.

You might not have realized it, but Johnson had dropped five of his last six fights before fighting Fili at UFC Fight Night 135. Admittedly, his recent defeats at lightweight were against stiff competition the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, Nate Diaz, and Beneil Dariush. It almost seems bizarre that one can go from securing an impressive knockout win over Dustin Poirier two years ago to now facing Artem Lobov, but here we are.

If you were unfamiliar with Artem Lobov and had only ever seen his name and record (14-14-1), you’d likely think he was the next scheduled heavyweight opponent for Mark Hunt (13-13-1). But seriously, Lobov is 2-4 in the UFC since joining in December 2015 and will enter this fight after consecutive defeats to Andre Fili and Cub Swanson in 2017.

Fight Breakdown

If the same Michael Johnson that turned up against Dustin Poirier makes a return against Artem Lobov this weekend, it’s going to be an ugly couple of minutes.

Johnson’s fast hands and decent power have proved to be trouble for almost everyone standing across from him recently (despite what his record indicates). He floats in and out of range before eventually unloading wild swinging hooks in the hope of clipping an incoming opponent. Johnson is particularly dangerous off the counter and can move his head slightly off the center line before hammering home shots of his own.

At the risk of generating a few laughs from our readers, Lobov has a fair chance of upsetting Johnson in this co-main event. Lobov has recently shown an ability to control the center of the cage and pressure his opponent with consistent forward movement and counter striking. He’s not a threat in this position, considering his small reach, and there’s the fact that he seems to generate next to no power in his striking because his hips don’t move, but it might cause Johnson to open up and burn out early by attempting to regain the center. It’s unlikely, sure, but we need to prepare for all options.

Realistically, the best value for bettors in this co-main event is to take the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ selection.

Lobov’s defensive ability isn’t where it needs to be at against someone like Michael Johnson. Expect Johnson to land one of his devastating strikes and eventually put himself in a position to finish Artem Lobov inside the first two rounds.

The + odds here are generous, and we’re willing to take a dip.

Bet on ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ at odds of +155 with BetDSI

Andre Soukhamthath vs. Jonathan Martinez

UFC Fight Night 138
Saturday, October 28 – 11:30 pm (ET) / 8:30 pm (PT)

We’re going to double down on our ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ bet here, and we’ll tell you all of the reasons why.

Much like the co-main event, this wasn’t the originally scheduled contest for this weekend. Andre Soukhamthath was initially slated to face Gavin Tucker, but an injury forced Tucker to withdraw.

In steps UFC newcomer, Jonathan Martinez.

Martinez always looked like a guy who would make it to the UFC, but not many expected him to arrive so soon.

Andre Soukhamthath vs. Jonathan Martinez Betting Odds

• Andre Soukhamthath: -172 (SportBet)
• Jonathan Martinez: +187 (Bet365)

Andre Soukhamthath is better than his 1-3 record in the UFC suggests. He dropped two split decisions in his first two fights in the UFC, and an argument could be made that he should have won both of them (the Alejandro Perez fight more so than the Albert Morales one). He then bounced back with an impressive finish against Luke Sanders, but most fans will remember Soukhamthath for his fight with Sean O’Malley – for all of the wrong reasons.

Drawing criticism for his ‘poor fight IQ,’ Soukhamthath gave away a brilliant chance to win the fight against O’Malley in the third and final round. We won’t go too much into the detail, but Soukhamthath should have known much better.

At his best, Soukhamthath generates tremendous knockout power with his punches. He’s particularly dangerous when moving forward or waiting for the right opportunity to strike with counter punches, meaning that he’s able to either take it to Martinez and apply his usual pressure or answer when backed down. Arguably underrated, Soukhamthath also does a superb job of exchanging at close distance with short-range strikes and knees.

Now, there’s a lot to like about Martinez and we’re particularly fascinated by the Martinez by submission betting option for this fight – but we won’t take it.

Despite what seems to be impressive kickboxing ability, Martinez is continually taken down due to poor balance and subpar reaction time. But never fear, because he is about as ambitious as they come on the mat, and Martinez is known for throwing up all kinds of submissions. He seems as squirmish as Tony Ferguson on his back and will always move around to create an opportunity for an armbar or a triangle choke. Although we’ve only seen him execute these techniques against regional-level competition, the techniques appear to be fundamentally sound, and he is likely to catch an unsuspecting opponent in the future.

But can he catch Soukhamthath?

Maybe.

If Soukhamthath controls the majority of the action while standing (expected), there’s a real chance that Martinez heads to the mat either due to his ordinary balance and/or because of a trip, stumble, or knockdown. Will Soukhamthath follow him there? Likely.

Both Soukhamthath by KO/TKO and Martinez by submission are in play in this main card fight, and we’re going to look to extract value from the ‘Total Rounds – Under 2.5’ selection yet again.

Bet on ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ at odds of +187 with Bet365

UFC Fight Night 138 Main Card

Also on the card is what is sure to be a thrilling main event between Volkan Oezdemir vs. Anthony Smith, so be sure to check out our betting guide for that one.

The main card also features three other main card fights:

• Misha Cirkunov vs. Patrick Cummins
• Gian Villante vs. Ed Herman
• Alex Garcia vs. Court McGee

We have decided against betting on these fights for a variety of reasons.

See you all next week for UFC 230 at Madison Square Garden in New York!

Let’s keep the winning streak alive!