UFC Fight Night 141: Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou II Betting Guide

The UFC’s international fight cards might not be most highly anticipated events of the calendar year, but they’re particularly exciting for sports bettors.

With several new faces appearing on our screens for the first time and many proven fighters battling in intriguing matchups, UFC Fight Night 141 is a playground for expert MMA bettors who have done their research.

That’s exactly what we’ve done here at WagerBop before the UFC steps foot into Beijing, China, for the first time this weekend.

And we’re ready to share our best bet of the weekend with you.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou

UFC Fight Night 141’s featured main event is a heavyweight rematch between Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou.

As these two top-ranked heavyweight fighters prepare to battle for a second time, it’s Blaydes who will be seeking redemption for his only career defeat.

Ngannou’s victory over Blaydes was a pivotal part of the creation of a monster. The Nigerian would go on to experience a n exceptional stretch of performances that included a couple of kimura submissions and one absolutely vicious knockout of Alistair Overeem. With the UFC believing that they had the next big thing at heavyweight, they proceeded to push him all the way into a title fight against Stipe Miocic. That night didn’t end well for Ngannou, as Miocic masterfully avoided danger and worked his way to a dominant unanimous decision victory.

And for Blaydes, losing to Ngannou has turned into a long-lasting setback. Despite earning a five-fight winning streak, Blaydes isn’t being given the same opportunities that Ngannou once received and now finds himself back to where he was almost two years ago – fighting Francis Ngannou.

Now that the story is set, let’s take a look at the odds for this fight:

 Best odds for Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou:

• Curtis Blaydes: -210 (Bovada)
• Francis Ngannou: +196 (SportBet)

These odds can mostly be explained in two words: recency bias.

With Ngannou losing to Miocic and then participating in what Joe Rogan claimed to be the “most boring heavyweight fight of all-time” against Derrick Lewis, we haven’t seen a whole lot to like about Ngannou lately.

Meanwhile, Blaydes has been tearing through the heavyweight division. He’ll enter the cage in Beijing after two fantastic wins over Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt to cap off what has been a brilliant five-fight period.

So, it’s apparently easy for some people to ignore the fact that Ngannou defeated Blaydes the first time.

It’s even easier to throw that result out the window when you consider the way it ended.

After taking many of Ngannou’s best strikes, the damage had accumulated on Blaydes face and he was unable to see out of his right eye by the end of the second round. The doctor rightfully called an end to the contest and took away the opportunity for Blaydes to prove himself in the final round.

It wasn’t a knockout and it definitely wasn’t conclusive.

Also of importance is that this is only the second time that Francis Ngannou will enter a UFC fight as the underdog. The last wasn’t against Stipe Miocic, Derrick Lewis or Alistair Overeem, it was instead in his second fight with the UFC and the first time he clashed with Curtis Blaydes.

Betting Opportunities

Admittedly, we were first enticed by the generous odds on Francis Ngannou in this main event.

Looking past his recent form and confidence issues, Ngannou still appears to be one of the most dangerous matchups for Curtis Blaydes near the top of the division. With heavy punching power, extreme strength and athleticism, and a serviceable ability to secure submissions and/or get back to his feet, Ngannou was more than a challenge for Blaydes the first time around.

In fact, Blaydes was only able to secure two takedowns in the first ten minutes that these two met inside the cage. But the takedowns aren’t the issue, it was about what he did with them. Blaydes was unable to secure dominant position and was not able to land a single significant strike on the ground. The vast majority of his strikes (21 of 24) were landed at distance, as he opted to trade with the ever-dangerous Ngannou while standing.

And that might be one of the most ignored factors leading into this fight.

Because although Ngannou isn’t statistically the most impressive striker in the UFC heavyweight division, it’s the sheer nature and power of his punches that matters – not the volume (only 2.12 per minute) or accuracy (33%).

But all of this analysis is without accounting for the improvements in Curtis Blaydes’ game. He’s improved his ability to feint and draw out powerful strikes from his opponent and that will help to fatigue his giant opponent. Blaydes has also improved his ability to keep his opponent down on the ground long enough to eventually start damaging them with heavy strikes (see the way he opened up Alistair Overeem’s face).

Yes, it’s a warning sign that Blaydes will sometimes stand and trade with arguably more dangerous opponents, but his durability is definitely worth noting. If Ngannou gets too overzealous, expect Blaydes to shoot in underneat with a powerful double-leg takedown.

And that’s the most likely outcome in this fight. Blaydes shoots for an incredibly high 6.82 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and maintains a decent 57% takedown accuracy. The takedowns will come and he’ll overpower Ngannou in the mid-to-late rounds.

Bet on Curtis Blaydes to win inside the distance: -135 at SportBet