UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis Preview, Odds, Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis takes place this Saturday in Las Vegas, at the UFC APEX, the home of the organization and the majority of its events during the COVID-19 pandemics. The two heavyweights know that this bout could determine their respective future. Both Blaydes and Lewis are bidding for a title shot, and have solid performances over the past few matches. They both have multiple wins against solid rivals, slowly clearing the way towards the division’s top. Blaydes is second in the rankings, while Lewis sits fourth.

Preview

Blaydes (-290) is a heavy favorite according to the bookmakers, and his last few matches are supporting their assessment. The Razor, as the fans call this guy, defeated Alexander Volkov and Junior dos Santos in his two bouts this year. The match against the Russian this June saw the American’s win, following a unanimous decision.

He overpowered Volkov, especially on the ground, where he dominated throughout the majority of the contest, tactically collecting points and exhausting the rival. Before that event, Blaydes beat Junior do Santos, via TKO in the second round, announcing his intentions to receive a title-fight.

Overall, his lone two losses came against Francis Ngannou, both following knockouts. Blaydes had a few big wins against Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, Aleksei Oleinik, etc. He is a top wrestler, arguably the best one in the division, with solid cardio. He improved standup fight over the past few matches but isn’t some crazy hitter.

Lewis (+240) has the opposite characteristics. He is a magnificent puncher, with Ngannout the best one in the UFC heavyweight division, and currently holds the record for wins by a knockout. After trashing Aleksei Oleinik, he became the all-time leader in this category with 11 KO triumphs.

However, Lewis’s two successes before that match concluded with decision wins, against Ilir Latifi, unanimous decision, and Blagoy Ivanov, a split one. Before those, the Black Beast lost to Daniel Cormier, in the UFC heavyweight title bout, and after that, against Junior dos Santos.

He isn’t a good wrestler, and that cost this guy a lot. DC beat him via submission, dos Santos wore him out with constant pressure in that area, both Latifi and Ivanov exposed his inferiority on the ground.

Prediction

The last sentence is the key to our prediction. As we said, Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division, whose takedown attempts are very frequent and successful. After losing to Ngannou twice, he most definitely learned how to avoid those one-punch losses, which is the only chance for Lewis to win here.

The Black Beast stated recently that his cardio is much better than before and that he prepared well for Blaydes and his tactics. We don’t believe in that at all. Razor is in his prime, coming off a few very tough challenges, piling on pressure to do something big, and finally attack that belt. Apart from Stipe Miocic, we believe that there isn’t a fighter among the heavyweights with greater stamina than Blaydes. After everything written, we are putting our money on the Razor.