UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Preview, Odds, Predictions

Sergei Pavlovich is one of the latest UFC heavyweight stars, but in order to reach challenger status, the Russian needs to beat Curtis “Razor” Blaydes. These two guys are highlighting the main event of the UFC Fight Night 222 at the UFC Apex facility. Blaydes’ reputation was heavily damaged following his KO loss against Derrick Lewis, and he had to go back to the basics in order to restore it. With three wins in a row, the American is back in the elite echelon of the heavyweights, and he wants to get back in the title talk. 

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Preview

Sergei Pavlovich (17-1, +140) is the third-ranked name in the division, and is one of the most impressive heavyweights at the moment. The Russian’s size and appearance are astonishing, and his knowledge inside the ring comes nothing shorter.

He has one defeat in 18 MMA appearances, way back in 2018, once he lost in the UFC debut against Alistair Overeem via KO. After that, Pavlovich went on the win five bouts in a row, against Marcelo Golm, Maurice Greene, Shamil Aburakhimov, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa in the most recent event. All these events finished via first-round KO, and that’s something remarkable.

This guy is a heavy-handed bomber, and we can safely say there probably isn’t a man with a stronger punch in the UFC than him. Now, Pavlovich’s flaw is wrestling, and he isn’t as skilled on the mat that much. That loss to Overeem came following a takedown.

Curtis Blaydes (17-3, -170) suffered a huge Ko loss in February 2021 against Derrick Lewis, which was his third KO defeat, the previous two both coming against Ngannou. He has a reputation for having a fragile chin, but who wouldn’t end like Razor against these two guys? 

The American had three victories following that loss, against Jairzinho Rozenstruik via unanimous decision, Chris Daukaus, TKO, and Tom Aspinal, a TKO but due to Aspinal’s injury. Previously, Blaydes had wins over Junior dos Santos, Alexander Volkov, Alistair Overeem, etc. His bio is more colorful than Pavlovich’s, but he sits fourth in the heavyweight rankings.

Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers in the division, if not the best one, but his punching power isn’t as strong as with other rivals of the same weight. Despite finishing most of the bouts via KO, most were on the ground or after exhausting wrestling. 

Predictions

Blaydes will have to put Pavlovich on his back if he intends to win here, but the Russian has improved his takedown defense over the past couple of years. That’s how he reached this position in the first place. On the other side, the Razor is still pretty open and neglects his defense once attacking, which exposes his “fragile” chin. All that Pavlovich needs to do is to get one clean hit, and send Blaydes to the ground. Which we believe will happen sooner or later. There is a small difference in speed between the two guys, which should give Pavlovich a decent chance to defend from Blaydes’ bursts, and on the other side, to make that one punch.

Pick: Pavlovich wins +140