UFC on ESPN 14: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson Preview, Odds, Pick

The former UFC heavyweight champion who is trying to find his way back to the elite echelon of the division is facing the newcomer to the heavyweights. That is, in short, the intro for the bout between Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Gustafsson. The two guys will clash in an interesting match, which could bring a lot of heat. Werdum is in a position that he needs to win if he wants another big fight in his career, while on the other side, it appears that Gustafsson’s move up to the top division is an act of wandering and trying to find some focus in this career.

Preview

Werdum (+270) is one of the most impressive fighters of all time. The first guy who defeated Fedor in a way that couldn’t be disputed, who defeated Alistair Overeem in his best days, and later went on to become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the UFC. Back then, Mark Hunt and Cain Velasquez were defeated in the matches, which secured Werdum the biggest success in his career.

But after that, his results weren’t very notable. Stipe Miocic obliterated him at the UFC 198, knocking out the Brazilian, taking away his title. That counter punch is still one of the greatest ever in the history of the organization.

Since losing to Miocic, Werdum has three wins and three losses. He lost via majority decision against Overeem, which was a bit unfair, then beat Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura, before losing to Volkov after a KO and Aleksei Olenik via split decision (again unfair).

Gustafsson (-330) is, as we said, wandering around. He is coming off back-to-back losses against Anthony Smith and Jon Jones, both via stoppage, and tries to find a way how to stabilize his career.

Once one of the most promising light heavyweight fighters didn’t turn out to have the career as predicted. He was considered to be the only guy able to stop Jon Jones, after seeing him resist the Bones at the UFC 165.

It seems that the pressure following that fight broke down the Swed who posted three wins and four losses. Of course, numerous injuries slowed down his career as well.

After beating Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira who are solid opponents, many believed that it is time to see his true potential. Still, losses to Jones and Smith pushed him back to the middle level of light heavyweights. This fight is a search for a breakthrough move, and many are not convinced that it is the right move for Gustafsson. When speaking long-term.

Prediction

The sole reason why we give an edge to the Swed here is his age. He is nine years younger than Werdum, who, on top of everything, had a fight in May against Oleinik after more than 13 months of abstinence. The odds on Gustafsson are low, so we recommend betting on his win via stoppage.

We have a lot of affection for Werdum, but there is no way for him to overcome the difference in age and physical condition, even though he had a solid fight against Oleinik.