UFC on ESPN 38: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot Preview, Odds, Prediction

The upcoming weekend in the UFC carries one hell of an intro for the UFC 276 and two title fights at that event. UFC on ESPN 38 brings us the battle of two very promising lightweights, Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. These two guys are No.11 and No.12 in the division, and they want a breakthrough in the top ten which would later bring them not only more lucrative deals but open doors to a title fight someday. This was supposed to be a fight at one of the bigger spectacles, but the organization decided to hand these guys a chance to be in the main event and test their possibilities.

Preview

Arman Tsarukyan (-210) is only 25 years old and is on the verge of becoming an elite in the UFC lightweight division. He has two losses in his career, one coming in the UFC at the hands of Islam Makhachev. It was a unanimous decision loss in April 2019, but what most forget to say is that Tsarukyan debuted in the organization back then and still managed to push Islam to the brink.

After that, the young Georgian went on to win the next five events, beating Olivier Aubin-Mecier, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, Christos Giagos, and Joel Alvarez, the last two via KO. He was slowly getting up through the ranks and improving.

His best area is wrestling, pretty much like all the fighters coming from the Caucasus. He is very agile on the mat and has the power to maneuver the rival, and it is no wonder he has five submission wins. Tsarukyan’s gas tank is extremely good and has no trouble enduring three rounds of fighting. We’ll see how he finds his way around in championship rounds.

Mateusz Gamrot (+200) comes in as an underdog in this battle. He has one loss so far in his career after 20 bouts, and that was against Guram Kutateladze on his UFC debut. It was a split decision defeat for the Pole, who was the KSW lightweight champion and also held the featherweight title in that competition.

Yet he recovered and pretty confidently won the upcoming three contests against Scott Holzman (KO), Jeremy Stephens (kimura submission), and the most recent vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (TKO).

He isn’t a dominant wrestler like his rival, but despite that has solid knowledge in that area. He is an all-around finisher who knows to win via KOs, submissions, or decisions. Also, his gas tank has been probed in five rounds, and so far, Gamrot performed well. Even though it happened in the KSW, it still needs to be respected.

Prediction

We will be honest and say that underestimating Gamrot isn’t a brilliant idea. Yet, Tsarukyan is on the rise, and he is a masterclass with potential, but still, Gamrot is an established fighter with much tougher rivals in his career than Tsarukyan, for whom this is the biggest test so far. Therefore, we are going to take a risk in this case and propose betting on the Polish fighter. Experience, a better gas tank, and the fact that he already tasted the main events before are all reasons why we place money on Gamrot.

Pick: Gamrot wins