UFC: Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum Preview, Odds, Prediction

Robert Whittaker is in a hurry to reclaim his middleweight belt, but in order to receive a chance for doing so, he first needs to defeat Kelvin Gastelum. This is the main event of Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 22. The two guys come in this battle with a completely different perception of their future. Whittaker expects to meet Israel Adesanya if he wins, while on the other side, Gastelum aims to move up in the rankings and prove that he isn’t a washed-up fighter, as many believe. We need to say one more thing. This wasn’t the matchup initially planned for this spectacle. At first, Whittaker was supposed to meet Paulo Costa and determine who will attack Adesanya and the title.

Preview

Robert Whittaker (-270) lost his title against Adesanya in October 2019, and after that, took a break until July 26, 2020. That was when he got back inside the octagon, defeating Darrent Till via unanimous decision. It was a nice performance of the former champ, who was dominant throughout most of the match, showing new skills and some improvements.

The Reaper, as the fans call him, defeated Jared Cannonier next, also after a unanimous decision, and the UFC 254. Whittaker used a bit more wrestling than before mostly in the clinch, indicating that he might change his fight philosophy in the future. After all, the chances of stripping Adesanya off his title are much better on the ground than in stand-up.

We might be wrong, or deceived by his new approach, but Whittaker appears to have lost some of his speed in the meantime. Again, this is just our opinion coming from what might have been a wrong judgment on our behalf.

Kelvin Gastelum (+215) was one of the most promising fighters in the UFC, but he got stuck somewhere in the middle. With just 29 years of age, many believe that his time has passed, and that the American has nothing to hope for in the UFC.

Gastelum had three straight defeats before stopping the negative skid against Ian Heinisch at the UFC 258. It was a unanimous decision win, but his rival wasn’t some high-caliber name. Those three losses, however, all came against big dogs. The first happened against Adesanya, a unanimous decision, then against Darren Till, which was a split decision, and vs Jack Hermansson last summer, via heel hook submission.

Paulo Costa withdrew from the fight more than one month before the same, giving Gastelum enough time to prepare for Whittaker. So there can’t be any comments about his physical shape or short notice for setting up a game plan.

Prediction

Well, the odds you saw are pretty much saying everything. Whittaker is a heavy favorite. He has a better CV, was a champion already, recorded wins against guys who had much better careers than Gastelum, whose biggest achievement was winning the Ultimate Fighter series. We do respect that, don’t get us wrong, but still, that is second-tier compared to the elite echelon of the division.

Therefore, we are backing up Whittaker to win this. Our first pick is that it would be via unanimous decision.