Ultimate 2019 Western Conference NBA Playoffs Betting Guide

The NBA season begins April 13th.

Players and spectators alike are eager to begin the long grind – each with one goal in mind – winning a championship.

Oh whoops sorry, I meant to say the NBA Playoffs begin April 13th. This is no small ordeal, however. This tournament is capable of lasting well into June and adding 28 games to an already grueling 82-fight grind.

The NBA Playoffs are so long that players understandably need to conserve energy throughout the year in order to remain fresh. What you end up seeing is a noticeable uptick in effort and intensity on the court once the games “mean something”.

Ok, so this is all well and good, but how do we make money from it?

I could simply say that the NBA Playoffs rule of thumb is to bet Warriors in the West and Cavs in the East, but this would be about 40% accurate. The Cavs are not even in it this year while we all know the Warriors dynasty has to end sometime.

My goal is to give you the most complete collection of NBA Playoffs betting information that the internet has to offer. Sure, you can find these numbers elsewhere, but good luck finding them broken down bit-by-bit with analysis sprinkled in.

This article deals only with the Western Conference. I wanted to split up the two conferences because different betting approaches work in each and I do not want their differences to be lost when I combine stats.

Why did I choose to focus on the West first? For one, the West has had the same top dog in Golden State for several years running, making the recent data more meaningful and likely to be repeated than out east.

Second, the competition in the West is better. 7 of the past 10 NBA champions have hailed from the Western Conference. I will break down the East next week. Today is all about cacti and sunshine.

Enough talking about it, let’s get down to business. This is the Ultimate 2019 Western Conference NBA Playoffs Betting Guide.

NBA Playoffs: Home Teams ATS and SU

One of the biggest questions I am sure you have about NBA Playoffs basketball is whether a strong home court advantage exists. I pulled the data since the 2009 Playoffs to analyze this question. I figured that a 10-year window was an appropriate length.

Here is what I found.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	51.4%	67.6%	-4.3
2016-17	30.6%	55.6%	-3.5
2015-16	57.9%	65.8%	-3.7
2014-15	50%	64.1%	-3.5
2013-14	52.4%	63.6%	-3.7
2012-13	43.2%	62.2%	-3.9
2011-12	55.6%	64.9%	-3.9
2010-11	46.2%	66.7%	-3.9
2009-10	63.2%	71.1%	-4.2
2008-09	52.6%	71.8%	-4.6
Total	50.4%	65.4%	-4.1

It turns out that betting home teams blindly is no way to make money during the NBA Playoffs. The home side has turned a profit in 4 of the previous 10 years, but only once in the past 6.

That ATS win rate of 50.4% falls short of the 52.4% break-even point.

I used the formula in that article I just linked to figure out the percentage of games a team needs to win SU to break-even with a -4.1 average line. It’s about 65%. This means moneyline bettors would basically be breaking even if they blindly took the home team each playoff game.

The good thing about home-road splits is that they are always opposite. Think about it. If home teams are winning 50.4% ATS, then road teams must be winning 100%-50.4%, or 49.6%.

Sadly, these numbers put us in no man’s land – an area in which neither side is profitable to bet thanks to the bookie juice.

If home teams won 65.4% SU with a -4.1 average line, then the road teams must have won 34.6% with a +4.1 average line. Due to juice again, however, we cannot assume that road teams would also break even on the moneyline just because home teams have.

We would then expect that their break-even percentages would add to 100%, right? But they don’t. They actually add to somewhere between 104-107%.

Because the books charge juice, the percentage needed to break-even is slightly higher than what it should be, hence the cumulative percentage over 100%.

So far we have determined there is no advantage to be held from betting solely based on the location of the game. I think the numbers we need to explore next are whether individual teams gain advantages based on the game’s location.

NBA Playoffs: Team-by-Team Records

Home Records

Some NBA arenas might as well be fortresses. Need to win Game 7 in Golden State? Good luck. Only 14.3% of visiting teams have won playoff games at Oracle in the past 10 years.

Here is a look at who has held down home court since the 2009 Playoffs. I only included the 8 teams that have clinched spots in the 2019 Western Conference Playoffs. I sorted this list by their seeding in this year’s playoffs. Golden State is 1st, the Nuggets 2nd, etc.

Team	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	42	36-6 (85.7%)	23-19 (54.8%)
Nuggets	20	14-6 (70%)	11-9 (55%)
Blazers	25	13-12 (52%)	8-17 (32%)
Rockets	39	26-13 (66.7%)	19-20 (48.7%)
Jazz	19	8-11 (42.1%)	8-11 (42.1%)
Thunder	50	34-16 (68%)	24-26 (48%)
Spurs	53	37-16 (69.8%)	30-23 (56.6%)
Clippers	29	15-14 (51.7%)	10-18-1 (35.7%)

You are supposed to be able to win a home Playoff game. The Warriors are the best in the West at holding serve, largely because they are the best team in the West. The Nuggets, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs also play very well in front of their home crowd.

Home teams often must lay extra points in the spread due to the fact they have the home court advantage. Only the Warriors, Nuggets, and Spurs have been solid enough at home over the past 10 years to cover spreads consistently. The other 5 teams are not profitable ATS.

The home playoff SU win rates for the Clippers, Blazers, and Jazz are lackluster. Consistently splitting games at home (or worse, like the Jazz) is a sign you have not yet arrived as a title contender.

Champions win at home and split on the road.

Road Games

Speaking of road games, it is also important to know which teams excel at playing away from home. Here are the numbers over the past 10 years for those same 8 teams when they are forced to travel.

Team	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	38	21-17 (55.3%)	24-14 (63.2%)
Nuggets	20	4-16 (20%)	9-10-1 (47.4%)
Blazers	28	4-24 (14.3%)	8-19-1 (29.6%)
Rockets	36	12-24 (33.3%)	20-16 (55.6%)
Jazz	22	6-16 (27.3%)	13-9 (59.1%)
Thunder	47	18-29 (38.3%)	25-21-1 (54.3%)
Spurs	52	22-30 (42.3%)	21-30-1 (41.2%)
Clippers	28	9-19 (32.1%)	12-16 (42.9%)

The Warriors are just otherworldly. Winning 55% of your road playoff games makes you practically invincible in a best-of-7 format. No wonder Golden State has won the previous 4 Western Conference titles and 3 of the past 4 NBA Championships.

Not only does Golden State win, but they repeatedly annihilate the spread. Over the past 10 seasons, not only are the Dubs the best Western team SU on the road but they are the best Western team ATS on the road, as well.

Quite frankly, the Nuggets, Jazz, and Blazers stink on the road. Their SU win rates are 20%, 14.3%, and 27.3% respectively. This is especially troublesome for the latter two because they are not tearing it up at home either. There is a reason that we have seen neither Utah nor Portland past the conference semis for quite some time.

The one redeeming quality about the Jazz on the road in playoff games is that they cover spreads consistently. With a 59.1% win rate ATS over the past 10 seasons in road postseason games, Utah spread bets have yielded bettors an ROI of 12.8%.

Total Record

Time to put it all together. Combining each team’s home and road stats gives us a complete picture of how each of the 8 playoff teams in the Western Conference this year has fared in their postseason games since 2009.

Team	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	80	57-23 (71.2%)	47-33 (58.8%)
Nuggets	40	18-22 (45.0%)	20-19-1 (51.3%)
Blazers	53	17-36 (32.1%)	16-36-1 (30.8%)
Rockets	75	38-37 (50.7%)	39-36 (52.0%)
Jazz	41	14-27 (34.1%)	21-20 (51.2%)
Thunder	97	52-45 (53.6%)	49-47-1 (51.0%)
Spurs	105	59-46 (56.2%)	51-53-1 (49.0%)
Clippers	57	24-33 (42.1%)	22-34-1 (39.3%)

Sorted by SU winning percentage, the Warriors are your best bet followed by the Spurs, Thunder, and Rockets. This is obviously important when betting game moneylines or series lines.

ATS, not surprisingly, the Warriors are also your best bet. A 47-33 ATS record over the past 10 years equates to a 12.2% ROI for Dubs’ bettors.

Talk about slim pickins’ … the Warriors are the only team in the Western Conference Playoffs this year who have been a profitable bet ATS over the past decade of postseason ball. Most of these teams are in no man’s land – meaning it is not profitable to bet for them or against them.

A couple of these teams, namely the Clippers and Trailblazers, are extremely profitable to bet against ATS. A bettor who has sided against the Clippers and Blazers postseason spreads since 2009 would be up $2,820 – an ROI of 23.7%.

NBA Playoffs: Favorites ATS and SU

Since there is not much of an advantage to be gained from betting home/road splits, I thought I should check to see if either favorites or dogs won more frequently than they should.

Below is a chart showing how favored teams have fared in each NBA postseason since 2009.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	58.3%	75%	-7.1
2016-17	47.2%	72.2%	-7.2
2015-16	56.8%	70.3%	-8.1
2014-15	43.2%	63.2%	-5.9
2013-14	43.9%	60.5%	-5.1
2012-13	45.7%	65.7%	-5.4
2011-12	61.1%	83.8%	-5.6
2010-11	46.2%	66.7%	-5.2
2009-10	64.7%	73.5%	-4.8
2008-09	50%	69.2%	-6.2
Total	51.5%	69.8%	-6.1

Once again, the numbers are a tad disappointing. 51.5% ATS puts us in no man’s land. This means the underdogs are only winning 48.5% ATS – an even worse percentage.

No problem, you say? Think you don’t need ATS bets because you’ll just clean up on the moneyline? Think again. With a -6.1 average line, favored teams are roughly -240 or -245 moneyline bets. Plugging these numbers into our formula tells me that teams need to win 70-71% of their games to break even.

Our Western Conference favorites fall just shy of that mark, meaning the moneyline is also not profitable for favorites.

Maybe it is profitable for underdogs … worth a look, right? If faves are winning 69.8% at -6.1 then dogs are winning 30.2% at +6.1. This spread would put the dogs’ average moneyline odds right at +200.

+200 dogs need to win 33.3% of the time to break even. Once again, our group falls just shy of that mark.

So far the only thing we have learned is that the Warriors are great and no other useful trends seem to exist. Let’s dig deeper.

Remember that home teams were winning slightly over 50% ATS as were favored teams. Maybe something profitable will materialize if we combine these two criteria.

Home  Favorites

Here are the numbers that home favorites have put up since 2009 in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	55.6%	77.8%	-7.7
2016-17	34.6%	69.2%	-7.6
2015-16	60.9%	78.3%	-9.6
2014-15	46.4%	69.0%	-6.5
2013-14	48.5%	66.7%	-5.9
2012-13	42.9%	67.9%	-5.9
2011-12	60%	80%	-5.8
2010-11	45.7%	68.6%	-5.3
2009-10	66.7%	75.8%	-4.9
2008-09	51.5%	73.5%	-6.5
Total	51.4%	72.5%	-6.4

Even by combining the best of both worlds we cannot get above that 52.4% threshold for the point spread. That 72.5% number for SU bets looks promising however. At -6.4, these teams would be given roughly a -260 on the moneyline.

In order to break even at -260, you need to win about 72% of the time. Turns out, once again, that no profitable trend exists here.

Remember that if home favorites are winning 51.4% ATS then road underdogs are winning 48.6%. So against home favorites will not do you any good, either.

Home Dogs

Just to see what the numbers would look like I decided pull up the same stats for home underdogs. Take a look.

Year	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	33.3%	33.3%	5.4
2016-17	20%	20%	6.3
2015-16	50%	42.9%	5.6
2014-15	66.7%	55.6%	4.1
2013-14	75%	60%	2.6
2012-13	42.9%	42.9%	3.4
2011-12	33.3%	0%	4.6
2010-11	50%	50%	4.2
2009-10	100%	100%	2.0
2008-09	60%	60%	4.4
Total	47.9%	40.8%	4.6

Just too inconsistent for my comfort. 47.9% ATS will obviously not get the job done, but I feel the need to check that SU win rate to see if it is profitable.

An average spread of +4.6 means you are looking at a moneyline of about +170. To break even with these odds, you would need to have a win percentage of about 39%.

It looks like home dogs might eek you out a profit, but don’t get your expectations too high.

NBA Playoffs: Over/Under (Totals)

Of course, the point spreads and moneylines are not the only bets available to playoff basketball lovers. Totals provide the same level of excitement and upside with the added bonus that you do not have to worry about trivialities like who won the game.

Totals are binary. There are two outcomes – over or under. Here is a glimpse into the past 10 seasons of Western Conference Playoffs totals.

Year	Over %	Under %
2017-18	37.1%	62.9%
2016-17	63.9%	36.1%
2015-16	43.2%	56.8%
2014-15	48.7%	51.3%
2013-14	59.1%	40.9%
2012-13	47.2%	52.8%
2011-12	51.4%	48.6%
2010-11	52.6%	47.3%
2009-10	55.6%	44.4%
2008-09	44.7%	55.3%
Total	50.5%	49.5%

Geez, are the oddsmakers spot on every single time? They are really making us work to find some exploitable trends.

We need to think a bit more unconventionally for this next query.

NBA Playoffs: Coach by Coach Records

Some coaches just know how to get wins in crunch time. Others constantly put their players in sub-optimal positions – costing them playoff wins.

Michael Malone of the Denver Nuggets is a playoff virgin. The other 7 coaches of the Western Conference playoff teams have coached in the postseason before. Here is what these men have accomplished throughout their entire postseason coaching careers, including the NBA Finals.

Team	Coach	# of Games	SU Record (%)	ATS Record (%)
Warriors	Kerr	83	63-20 (75.9%)	48-35 (57.8%)
Nuggets	Malone	0	—	—
Blazers	Stotts	35	11-24 (31.4%)	11-23-1 (32.4%)
Rockets	D’Antoni	87	43-44 (49.4%)	42-45 (48.3%)
Jazz	Snyder	22	9-13 (40.9%)	12-10 (54.5%)
Thunder	Donovan	29	14-15 (48.3%)	15-14 (51.7%)
Spurs	Popovich	223	135-88 (60.5%)	121-101-1 (54.5%)
Clippers	Rivers	153	80-73 (52.3%)	74-78-1 (48.7%)

The big dogs immediately jump out at you. Steve Kerr of the Warriors and Pop of the Spurs absolutely clean up in the postseason. Terry Stotts and Quin Synder are yet to prove themselves.

Not only does Steve Kerr have an excellent SU record, but his ATS record is phenomenally profitable. Pop also boasts a profitable ATS record as does Quin Synder, despite his horrible SU mark.

NBA Playoffs: Seed-by-Seed

I saved the best for last. Some very interesting trends emerge when you break down win rates over the past 10 postseasons based on a team’s seeding. This is when we really make those bookies pay for their inaccuracies. This is our meat and potatoes right here!

Game Records by Seed

This first chart simply lists the ATS and SU records for each seed going back to 2009, like always.

Seed	# of Games	ATS Record (%)	SU Record (%)
1	144	72-71-1 (50.3%)	100-44 (69.4%)
2	140	78-60-2 (56.5%)	85-55 (60.7%)
3	114	58-56 (50.9%)	60-54 (52.6%)
4	103	34-42-2 (44.7%)	33-45 (42.3%)
5	78	50-51-2 (49.5%)	44-59 (42.7%)
6	74	38-35-1 (52.1%)	31-43 (41.9%)
7	56	18-37-1 (32.7%)	14-42 (25.0%)
8	59	31-27-1 (53.4%)	17-42 (28.8%)

Betting 2-seeds and 8-seeds ATS seems like a good idea to me. These two groups have combined to reward bettors with a 6.1% ROI over the past 10 postseasons.

Series Records by Seed

Of course, betting individual games isn’t the only way to make a buck. Betting series is a very popular way to buy some exposure to a team while shielding yourself from the variability of single-game betting.

Here are each seed’s series records since 2009. SU in this case means that they won the series.

Seed	# of Series	SU Record (%)
1	28	24-4 (85.7%)
2	25	18-7 (72.0%)
3	20	11-9 (55.0%)
4	12	2-10 (16.7%)
5	20	10-10 (50.0%)
6	13	3-10 (23.1%)
7	11	1-10 (9.1%)
8	11	1-10 (9.1%)

Obviously 1-seeds are a good bet, but would you look at how awful 4-seeds traditionally play in the West. Fade those guys!

Conference Quarterfinals (First Round) Series Records by Seed

When you break down series records by round, you are able to better grasp how the bracket fills out. For example, those 4-seeds from earlier have a terrible record but that does not tell us when they typically lose.

Well, this chart makes it pretty clear that the 5-seed is a much much much better bet than the 4-seed in any Western Conference series matchup.

Seed	# of Series	SU Record
1	10	9-1
2	10	9-1
3	10	7-3
4	10	1-9
5	10	9-1
6	10	3-7
7	10	1-9
8	10	1-9

Conference Semifinals (2nd round) Series Records by Seed

So we learned that 1, 2, and 5-seeds are basically locks for the conference semis. But what about taking that next step? Who should we put our faith in to reach the NBA’s Final Four?

Seed	# of Series	SU Record
1	9	8-1
2	9	7-2
3	7	3-4
4	1	1-0
5	9	1-8
6	3	0-3
7	1	0-1
8	1	0-1

According to the numbers, definitely not the 5-seeds. 6, 7, or 8-seeds did not reach the Western Conference Finals in the past 10 years. The 5-seeds only reached that stage once, despite winning in the 1st round 9 times.

As a general rule of thumb, only bet 1, 2, or 3-seeds to reach the Western Conference Finals. Basketball does not have enough parity to make the big underdogs worthwhile bets.

Conference Finals (3rd Round) Series Records by Seed

This is it. The NBA’s real championship series. The winner of this series has gone on to demolish the poor Eastern champ in 7 of the past 10 seasons.

Since 2009, only 1, 2, and 3-seeds have won the Western Conference Finals. Your best bet, as it should be, is the 1-seed. This year that is Golden State, and all the evidence seems to suggest they will dominate.

Seed	# of Series	SU Record
1	8	6-2
2	7	3-4
3	3	1-2
4	1	0-1
5	1	0-1
6	0	—
7	0	—
8	0	—

This information will do you no good unless you go to your bookie’s homepage right now and start browsing playoff lines. On Bovada, all of the Game 1 lines are uploaded along with series prices and “mythical matchups”.

If that intrigues you, follow the link above.

It appears that betting by seed, while giving some preference to home teams and favorites is the way to go in the modern NBA playoffs.

We are about to begin a journey. This is the real NBA season. We could be witnessing as many as 105 pressure-packed battles, 60 elimination games, and 15 game 7’s.

Buckle up, boppers. See you at the top!

talk about how underdogs are opposite