Underdog Gophers Dig a Hole Prior to Quick Lane Bowl

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are making headlines for all the wrong reasons. A rule-breaking incident involving several student-athletes may lead to a thinned-out roster for the Quick Lane Bowl in Motor City.

Minnesota has not exactly thrilled fans in 2018 to begin with. The Gophers were blown out by such – ahem – powerhouses as Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois on their way to a losing Big Ten record and a 6-6 overall mark.

In the meantime, Georgia Tech won 5 of its final 6 ACC contests, including wins over Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech. In fact, the only thing that kept GT out of topping the Coastal Division was a 5-point loss to Pittsburgh back in September.

Yet whether it is a 5-7 record ATS, departing Georgia Tech skipper Paul Johnson’s pedestrian bowl record, or the uncertainty about what is actually going on in Minneapolis, the point spread for the Quick Lane Bowl has been pretty constant over the last week.

Bovada’s odds have shifted to a (-5.5) point spread on the favored Yellow Jackets following an opening consensus of just over a field-goal margin. GT’s moneyline is currently at (-215) with (+185) attached to the Golden Gophers.

The Over/Under total for Ford Field is falling. Having opened at (61) points, the line has ticked down to (58) as gamblers prefer the Under.

But has it shrunk enough? In all of Johnson’s bowl games at Georgia Tech the point total has only gone past 60 points once – in a 2014 Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State.

2014 was the season in which the Flexbone offense was finally acknowledged as legitimate on the Power-5 level. Georgia Tech set records for yardage and point-scoring per drive. Some statisticians called it the most effective offense in college football history.

But the Flex is a ball-control system first and foremost. Georgia Tech is fine with scoring a few touchdowns on long drives in the 1^st half, then draining 10+ minutes with another long drive in the 3^rd quarter. Once that happens, the opposing offense is often so ice-cold that it does not matter if their QB and receivers are playing well or not. In a postseason scenario where a defense has longer to prepare, the Yellow Jackets’ trademark big plays are fewer…but the ball control remains.

Suspended Sentence

Of course, the question on any gambler’s mind is what will happen with the suspensions at Minnesota. LB Blake Cashman is already sitting out the Quick Lane Bowl to guard his NFL Draft status, and headlines seem to contradict each other about the position of 6 other players who violated P.J. Fleck’s team rules.

Some headlines claim the players are suspended. Others say they expect to be or could be suspended. The identities of the student-athletes have not been unveiled, but the coach has all but 100% confirmed the buzz in recent headlines.

Even should the Gophers have all hands on deck, they still might not be a favorite against a 7-5 ACC squad. The distraction won’t be any fun. Getting student-athletes jazzed up to play in a minor bowl game is already a chore for a coaching staff.

Fleck will be starting a frosh QB in Tanner Morgan (if Morgan is not one of the offenders). The youngster has 7 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the year. The offense must lean on a fairly-decent offensive line and a pair of highly-efficient skill players in RB Mohamed Ibrahim and 1000-yard WR Tyler Johnson (once again, assuming neither is among those being punished).

Minnesota’s defense has been the most unpredictable group in the Big Ten. The unit gave up 55 points to Illinois, but only 15 to Wisconsin. 4 out of the 5 highest-rated recruits in Fleck’s 2019 class are defensive linemen, showing that the skipper definitely wants to beef up the front-7. But all those players can do is stand and watch in Motown.

Bye Bye, Alibi

Johnson’s retirement will be celebrated by many people, including some smug Georgia Tech fans who think a pass-happy playbook is the program’s key to becoming Clemson.

Former Temple coach Geoff Collins has been contracted to run an ordinary offense in Atlanta from now on, so the program is probably going to become Vanderbilt.

The hard truth is that Johnson’s clock-chewing running game has helped GT surmount a deficiency of premier talent on defense for 10 years.

Georgia Tech’s Anree Saint-Amour has 4 sacks and 11 tackles-for-loss in 2018, and sophomore Tariq Carpenter has been outstanding against the pass. But the squad is filled with 3-star material.

Of course, so is the Maryland defense, which was able to hold Minnesota to just 13 points.

Looking Under the Rug

“Under” bettors want to see long drives with bad endings, and GT has not been as wonderful in the Red Zone as in previous seasons running the Flexbone.

In a late-autumn 30-27 OT win over Virginia, QB TaQuon Marshall raced for 107 yards and piloted the triple-option scheme to over 5 yards per carry against Bronco Mendenhall’s miserly defenders. But young PK Wesley Wells went 4-of-4 on field goal attempts or else the Ramblin’ Wreck would not have prevailed that day.

While Marshall has connected on some big throws in 2018, he is short for a QB and has a 44% completion rate. When the Yellow Jacket offense ran roughshod over the ACC in 2014, QB Justin Thomas and a talented WR corps scorched defenses over the top when things got too tightly-packed in the middle. That probably will not happen with a middling passer facing a Big Ten defense in Detroit.

I’m liking Georgia Tech to cover the spread. But I like the Under (58) even more. The number is still a little too high, and may prove to be way too high if this contest goes as many other Georgia Tech bowl games have gone over the last 10 years.