What the Wisconsin Badgers Taught Me About Leveraging Trends

I was sitting at my desk yesterday – classical music playing, coffee cup within arm’s reach – surfing through some of this season’s college hoops stats. I was looking at the usual conference-by-conference trends, home/road splits, over/under anomalies, just trying to gain an edge on the books.

I had to double take when I saw this one. The under has hit in each of Wisconsin’s road Big Ten games this year. Every single one. As cool as this was, my initial thought was that I should find something else to write about. After all, I just released an article instructing readers to bet the over when UTSA plays on the road. Writing about how great a bet the under is in Badger road games seems too similar a theme to post on consecutive days.

It was not until further exploration that I realized this is not your run-of-the-mill 7-0 under trend. There are very few differences between how the Badgers play in Madison compared to on the road. Under bettors are getting lucky. That is all there is too it.

With UTSA, it was very clear why their totals were going over on the road. The Roadrunners were allowing 20 more points in opposing gyms than they were at home. That margin is much more narrow with Wisconsin. Here are some home/road splits.

Take a moment to really digest these numbers. At home, Wisconsin scores 65 and allows 62. On the road, they actually score fewer points, 63.6, but allow fewer per game, 58. These scoring totals are so close. They definitely do not explain why the under “only” wins 57.1% of the time at home and 100% of the time on the road. I’ll say it again, the under bettors are getting lucky. Watch me back that up by throwing some more figures at you. Here are all of Wisconsin’s Big Ten road results this year.

Sometimes oddsmakers were close with their total, other times not. Two facts remain however: the Vegas totals are set right around 130 for both home and road Badgers games, AND Wisconsin plays equally well both at home and on the road.

Our squad > yours.#OnWisconsin // #Badgers pic.twitter.com/fno0Zbtt4t

— Wisconsin Badgers (@UWBadgers) February 13, 2019

In 7 home games, the O/U split was 3-4. That’s as close to even as you can get. Vegas seems to have this team figured out from a handicapping standpoint. Because there is no discernable difference between the Badgers’ home and road play, we have to assume that those O/U numbers will regress back toward the mean.

Helping that natural regression is the fact that this 7-game streak is likely garnering a bit of attention from bettors, forcing Vegas to lower the total even more to balance the action on their books.

There has never been a better time to bet the over in a Wisconsin road basketball game. They have 3 remaining in the regular season. Bet now, thank me later. See you on top, boppers!