Will Favored Gunners Blow Another 3rd Round FA Cup Match?

A New Year’s resolution for Arsenal supporters? More like a desperate plea. Surprise us, Gunners. Surprise us just once…in a good way.

Arsenal’s final 2 matches of 2018 were predictable, or at least predictably frustrating. Aubameyang and company faced Liverpool for each club’s final match of the calendar year, not the ideal opponent considering that the Reds are currently the hottest team in English football. But a 5-1 loss at the hands of Salah and Roberto Firmino was followed by a bounce-back 4-1 trouncing of Fulham.

Unai Emery’s squad begins 2019 playing in the 3^rd round of the FA Cup against Blackpool, a League One club that lost a foul-filled 1-2 result to Arsenal in the Football League Cup on Halloween, on Saturday at Bloomfield Road.

It will be just the 4^th FA Cup meeting between the shields.

The Gunners are a (-1 ½) goal spread favorite and enjoy a (-400) moneyline at Bovada Sportsbook, compared to (+1000) for Blackpool in a match with an Over/Under total of (3).

Down by the Seaside

Blackpool may not be capable of a Cinderella title run in 2019. But it would be a mistake to take the Seasiders lightly just because they’re not currently in the Premier League.

There is no single dominant striker or goal-scoring threat playing for Blackpool. The club relies on a roster-wide effort and struggles to tally against superior goalkeeping.

The Seasiders’ top scorer is currently English footballer Nathan Delfouneso, a forward/striker who has earned 5 tallies and 2 assists on the season. Armand Gnanduillet, a 6’4” forward who has spent time playing for the Ivory Coast Under-23 squad a few years back, has also found the net 5 times in 25 League One appearances in 2018-19.

Blackpool often lines up in a 4-3-3 formation with the pair of talented forwards up front alongside a myriad of versatile performers. But the club’s player “pool” is geared more toward attacking and defending midfielders. Manager Terry McPhillips is an old hand who can get creative, going with a 3-5-2 formation in which developing strikers like Joe Dodoo can play alongside veterans up front.

Gnanduillet and Dodoo scored early goals in the team’s 3-2 2^nd round victory over Solihull Moors, but it took a penalty tally from tough veteran midfielder Jay Spearing to prevail in the 105^th minute.

Bettors should look to the goalkeepers to get an angle on the 3^rd round fixture with Arsenal. If Aubameyang lurks at the front of the Gunner formation, then any hope of an upset will come down to keeper Mark Howard’s athletic ability and smarts on the backline. Seasider defenders play a physical style but lack the speed and agility to defend the Gabonese striker, who has tallied 14 times in 21 Premier League matches this season.

Howard knows Arsenal well, having been a part of the storied club’s youth program before leaving for Cardiff City in 2006. He has posted a couple of clean sheets recently, most notably against Oxford United on 12/15. But his team occupies a modest 10^th in the League One table.

Whatever you do in 2019…#DontMugOffTheCup 🤣🏆 pic.twitter.com/4CL7UrX7aW

— BT Sport (@btsport) December 24, 2018

Guns-a-Blazin’…But Not on Defense 

Gunners were harshly criticized after the 5-1 loss to Liverpool, with analysts positing that Emery is not getting the best out of his midfield and backline. Dangerous wide gaps are being left between defenders and the rest of the squad of 11, allowing teams with elite attacking forwards to penetrate and convert against keeper Bernd Leno. The 26-year-old German star is challenging teammates to play better. But he’s got to take responsibility as well. The Reds scored 4 goals in the first 45 minutes and change last weekend.

However, when the Arsenal attack is allowed to breathe against lesser rivals, good things seem to happen for the 5^th place club. Alex Iwobi scored a capper in extra time on December 22^nd as the squad ran away from Burnley 3-1, and popular striker Alexandre Lacazette tallied his 7^th of the season in a 4-1 win over Fulham on Tuesday.

Arsenal’s meeting with Blackpool on All Hallows’ Eve was a hard-fought and grueling affair with multiple red cards. Gunners prevailed 2-1 after defender Stephan Lichtsteiner (nobody is claiming Arsenal’s backline isn’t still handy on the attack) and green-horn Emile Smith Rowe scored in the 33^rd and 50^th minute respectively. But Emery was cautious, rotating the lineup and playing mostly reserves such as Rowe instead of his superstars.

Gunners could again lean heavily on reserves at Bloomfield Road, just as in the clubs’ last meeting. But I’ve got a mind that it could be a different story on Saturday.

The Giant will be Wide Awake

Arsenal was eliminated in the 3^rd round of the FA Cup in 2018. Nottingham Forest scored a remarkable 4 goals as the Gunners were knocked out of the bracket earlier than supporters had thought possible.

Emery was coaching Paris Saint-Germain when that awful result occurred. But he’s in charge of a dressing room full of players who don’t want to let it happen again.

If Blackpool threatens early on Saturday, the full gigantic weight of elite Premiership attacking lines (and a speedy-if-not-responsible Arsenal midfield) could come crashing down on the Seasiders.

It’s hard to imagine that even a seasoned keeper like Howard will be able to hold off the Gunner attack if the visitors still need goals in the 2nd half. Arsenal will dress and play reserves in places, sure, but the proud club will be in no mood to take a chance on another nightmare exit.

Unless Aubameyang, Leno, and Lucas Torreira wind up in street-clothes on Saturday, I’m liking Arsenal against the spread.

The Over (3) is also a high-% wager.