Wimbledon Finals: Novak Djokovic vs. Matteo Berrettini Betting Preview, Odds, Prediction

Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini meet in the finals of Wimbledon this Sunday. While everyone expected to see Novak at this stage, just a few could predict Berrettini’s appearance. The 25-year old really played well throughout the entire season, and the Wimbledon finals are a crown of one very successful period. On the other side, Djokovic is after his 20th Grand Slam trophy, which would be a massive step towards the status of the best tennis player in history. Like it or not, the Serb is taking over the top position on all the all-time lists, and eventually, he will surpass both Roger and Rafa.

Preview

Djokovic (-450) looked routine against Denis Shapovalov in the semifinals. Even though the result was 7-6, 7-5, 7-5, it seemed as if Novak didn’t play 100% and that he pumped up the tempo only in certain moments. Djokovic was perfect in all the vital points, not giving Shapovalov the slightest chance to come out as the winner.

Interestingly, Novak had more aces than Shapovalov, whose serve is one of the strongest weapons, 8-5. On top of that, the Serb won 81% of points on his first serve and three breakpoints, one in each set, which only displays his confidence level.

We don’t need to explain too much how he plays. Even on the grass surface, his return is impeccable, and the Joker immediately neutralizes the rival’s serve. Shapovalov is left-handed, which gives him a bit of an edge against most of the competitors, but yesterday, that wasn’t the case, because Novak isn’t making a difference.

Berrettini (+400) is riding a 12-match winning streak coming into this finals. He was routine in the semis against Hubert Hurkacz, who rolled over Roger Federer in the quarterfinals, defeating the Pole 3-1, and even recording one 6-0 set victory.

The Italian’s biggest strength is his service. In the semifinals, he had 22, compared to Hurkacz’s just five. The fastest was 220 km/h, which allowed Berrettini to have 86% of points on his first serve ending in his favor. The average speed of the first serves was 201 km/h, and that says pretty much everything.

We also need to say that the Italian had six breakpoint conversions in 10 situations, which is an extremely high percentage for this stage of the competition.

Head to Head Matches

So far, these two guys have met on two occasions. Novak was more successful in each event. In 2019, Berrettini challenged Novak at the ATP Masters Finals, 2-0, 6-2, 6-1.

The previous match was in Paris, during this year’s Rolland Garros. The Italian had a 2-0 lead in the sets, when Novak just entered the zone and started slashing the rival. Berrettini would withdraw in the fifth set.

Prediction

There is no need to be too clever here to see who is the winner and who will win the title. Of course, Novak has a massive advantage and any other outcome, but his win would be one of the biggest sensations in the past few years. However, we do believe that Berrettini has a chance to take one set from Djokovic, which is our pick here. The odds are -190.

Pick: Berrettini +2.5 at -190