XFL Game Odds, Previews, and Week 1 Picks: Orlando at Houston ATS and Defenders vs Sea Dragons Moneyline Pick

Better yet, fans were welcomed into lively XFL stadiums around the nation (not a single venue in a convenient town) where teams like the St. Louis Battlehawks developed intense crowd support, a far cry from the rather short-lived Alliance of American Football’s reputation of “boiled hot dog and cold bleachers”.

North America was then crippled by the COVID-19 pandemic, taking the new XFL and all of professional sports with it. Leagues like the NHL and MLB quickly organized summer seasons and regained a modicum of profit, but there was no way for a minor-league pigskin brand that had begun play in winter to survive through a locked-down spring. Sadly, spectators were denied an XFL that they actually seemed interested in following.

Life imitates art, especially for the XFL! Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson soon stepped into the XFL “ring” to save the day, just as he has on a thousand “Raw” and “Smackdown” episodes of WWE. The resurrection of the XFL for the 3rd time by 2023 is being led by Johnson and a consortium of investors.

The USFL’s bosses would say their brand still has more history behind it. But as Johnson would say in a rasslin’ promo, “it doesn’t matter” what USFL franchise owners think. The Rock fully intends to lay down some freshly-designed spring football, and if his XFL manages to maintain the quality of the league’s 2020 incarnation, it might not take a feud with “Hollywood” Hulk Hogan to sell tickets this time around.

The USFL begins much later than the XFL in 2023, and could be in danger of getting overshadowed if the XFL picks up where it left off. In the meantime, bookmakers have certainly NOT picked up where they left off when it comes to handicapping odds on spring pro leagues, a key landscape-change that speculators must be aware of before choosing markets to pick, let alone which XFL team or outcome to pick as the winner.

In 2020, the trick was to simply bet the underdogs that really weren’t underdogs at all. This XFL season, the debut betting odds are so tightly drawn that finding a percentage wager could be as simple as finding a game with a true 6-point favorite.

But as is the case with USFL weekends, there are only 4 scrums to choose from.

XFL Week 1: Game Previews, Betting Odds, and Recommended Picks

Vegas Vipers at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, February 18)

After putting out such inaccurate odds on the XFL and USFL’s previous reboots, sportsbooks appear to have learned their lesson with bonus grades. It was easy money for gamblers to pick underdogs against 7-point and 14-point XFL spread lines early in the league’s partial 2020 season, considering that there’s no such thing as a “2-touchdown underdog” or a “10-point favorite” when a league’s teams have scarcely played a down of football. This time, the prevailing odds on the “XFL 3.0” relaunch of 2023 will include no point spreads greater than a field goal, and very narrow parameters for the Over/Under totals to fit between.

To wit, the Arlington Renegades are only (-2) point Week 1 favorites despite generating a preseason buzz around Bob Stoops coaching NFL journeyman (and spring football standout) Kyle Sloter behind center. Stoops is also fortunate enough to have selected running back De’Veon Smith, considered a major prize in the XFL’s talent pool. The Renegade defense is comparatively a question mark without as many marquee names, however, “no-name” defenses were the rule of the day in USFL’s postseason last year.

The Vegas Vipers, technically a slight underdog, may not make as many headlines as the Las Vegas Raiders do. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, considering the scandals, tragedies, and losing streaks that have characterized Silver & Black football over the last few years. The NFL celebrity Rod Woodson is in charge of the Vipers, and the team’s roster includes Atlanta Falcons first-rounder Vic Beasley at LB, and YouTube sensation QB Luis Perez.

FanDuel’s O/U lines in the 30s for XFL Week 1 illustrate spring’s reputation for low-scoring defensive struggles. Nevertheless, the venue of Raymond James Stadium, and the importance of a strong debut for the XFL “3.0,” could inspire Vegas and Arlington to produce a few eye-catching touchdowns on an absolutely perfect Saturday afternoon in the Sunshine State.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (36.5)

Orlando Guardians at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, February 18)

The Houston Roughnecks are another slight favorite on the Week 1 XFL betting board, coached by the defensive guru Wade Phillips and featuring a collection of former NFL, SEC, and ACC tacklers in a deep defensive front-7. Once more, bookmakers are terrified of making assumptions about a brand new league and its rosters following the bettor’s bounties minted in 2020 and 2022 when the odds were too blindly confident on early-season professional minor league action. That’s helped in keeping the Houston vs Orlando Over/Under markets at about the same handicap that’s given to other point-total outcomes in the XFL Saturday and Sunday. But with the Guardians’ blue-collar backfield about to be keyed by (potentially) QB Paxton Lynch, the onus is on the visitors to show they can get past the pylons.

WagerBop’s Pick: Roughnecks ATS (-2)

St. Louis Battlehawks at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, February 19)

According to New York and Las Vegas, the St. Louis Battlehawks are the lone XFL road favorite of Week 1. Picks on STL’s betting odds could be risky, considering that the 2020 Battlehawks were a “momentum” team who do not retain the same roster or leadership that was available 3 years ago. The quarterback is no longer Jordan Ta’amu.

However, it’s safe to say that Mr. Johnson himself sees something in Battlehawk signal-caller A.J. McCarron, or the XFL wouldn’t have set up McCarron to potentially help spark the league’s maiden rivalry by allowing 2020 standouts to play for alternative teams via the XFL Draft process. McCarron will have competition for cheers in the Edward Jones Dome if he squares off against a returning Ta’amu on home turf. Such “easy” media stories never seem to cooperate on the field, though, making it par for the course if the Battlehawks and Ta’amu’s DC Defenders play each other as winless rosters with neither QB garnering praise. Sunday’s host Brahmas, coached by the NFL receiving legend Hines Ward, could easily upset the new-look Battlehawks behind QB Reid Sinnett, an NFL exhibition-game workhorse.

WagerBop’s Pick: Brahmas (+110)

Seattle Sea Dragons at DC Defenders (Sunday, February 19)

Seattle may be going overboard with the ocean-based sports nicknames. At this point, there is hardly a Seattle team to speak of that is not branded around the nearby water. We’ve got the Seattle Mariners, the Seattle Kraken (even though “Clash of the Titans” isn’t real, the fictional beast does, in fact, come out of a fictional ocean), and the Seattle Seahawks and Sea Dragons of pigskin. Seattle’s 2020 version of their XFL nickname was “Dragons,” a classic American sports name that doesn’t necessarily reference the sea. That means that some corporate board decided to put “Sea” in the XFL name too. Seattle is a town located by beautiful Pacific Ocean shorelines. We all get it, Seattle sports teams! We all get it!

Wisecracks aside, Seattle is still well-respected as a spring football entity, as shown by the week’s tightest moneyline odds attached to the Sea Dragons’ trip to face Jordan Ta’amu and the DC Defenders. Ta’amu was once threatening to take over the XFL with the exciting St. Louis Battlehawks of 2020, so much so that it’s almost surprising to see the QB coming back for another spring campaign instead of sticking with an NFL lineup in 2021 to 2023.

The Defenders boast the league’s top position-player draft pick in RB Abram Smith. But the former New Orleans backup is not explosive enough to break open Sunday night’s game with long gallops, which means the more the Defenders lean on Smith, the more that the game clock will grind away in a contest that’s understandably offered at just O/U (36) points.

WagerBop’s Pick: Defenders (-120)