XFL Odds, Lines, and Picks in Week 8: D.C. Defenders at Seattle Sea Dragons Moneyline Bet and St. Louis vs Vegas Point Spread

Gamers were thrown the first sharp XFL curve-ball of the year just as MLB’s season began. Last weekend, the league’s formerly unbeaten D.C. Defenders fell to a stunning 37-36 upset and found themselves 6-1, once traveling to Orlando for what was expected to be a routine road victory. D.C. was outscored 37-28 after posting an early TD. Orlando’s W/L record, previously devoid of a single win, makes the upset a real jaw-dropper.

On an April Fools’ Day that felt exactly like one, QB Quinten Dormady fooled the vaunted Defender defense for 300+ passing yards and 3 touchdowns. But the unexpected parity illustrated by Week 7’s XFL scores is no kind of hoax. Fantasy sites like FanDuel are busily repricing what were once thought to be “dull” DFS draft picks, while the prevalence of close calls between the league’s top and bottom teams will have effects on Over/Under odds.

Speculators who have picked the D.C. Defenders to win XFL hardware shouldn’t panic, no more than year-round Fantasy GMs who’re using D.C. quarterback Jordan Ta’amu on a season-based roster. Ta’amu had a nice 60:00 himself in the unanticipated Sunshine State shoot-out, passing for 3 touchdowns of his own, converting on key 3rd downs, and tossing zero INTs. D.C.’s defense executed its typically vintage game-plan and held the Guardians to less than 3 yards-per-carry on rushing downs. The team’s secondary just performed badly against a steep underdog for one game, much like Trevor Lawrence’s supporting cast vs South Carolina on Rivalry Weekend in 2018. But it’s not hard to remember what that Clemson team accomplished after regrouping and moving on from that blunder.

In Week 8, some other XFL fan bases could use a cold shower, too. Houston was beaten by visiting St. Louis last weekend, but the Roughnecks are still the only winning club in their division and probably won’t have much trouble staying ahead of fading Arlington in the race. The 5-2 Seattle Sea Dragons, who face the 2023 season’s stretch in the infinitely harder North Division, will at least get to host the long-eliminated Vegas Vipers to close the regular season. If Seattle’s fate is still in its own hands, that break makes a postseason bid likely.

Nonetheless, this week’s odds on the Sea Dragons come with all the optimism of a Loch Ness Monster hunter before the trip… . And we all know that the sonar often draws a blank.

Vegas Vipers at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, April 8)

Sportsbooks seem ready to begin handicapping the XFL much like a “regular” NCAA or NFL pigskin division, and not so much like a sloppy spring league full of timid offense and low final scores. It would have been hard to justify more Over/Under point-total betting lines like O/U (33) or O/U (35.5) following a crazy Week 7 that included one of the biggest sports upsets of 2023, formerly 0-6 Orlando’s 37-26 stunner over D.C. With the rising O/U lines, point spreads will tend to widen, even though last week’s double-digit favorites lost to a cellar team. Higher-scoring games, or at least matchups which are now anticipated to produce more points, will produce wider spreads.

A nice example is this weekend’s kickoff in St. Louis. Vegas is coming off a 26-12 victory over San Antonio that makes the Vipers’ recent QB shake-up look like a good idea. But it’s tough to imagine Rod Woodson’s team playing head-up with the St. Louis Battlehawks (-7) for 4 full quarters following STL’s 24-15 triumph last week over division-leading Houston.

The Battlehawks will have to adjust to a guest offense that’s transitioning from former QB Luis Perez to new starter Brett Huntley. But the new Viper signal-caller won’t magically improve his supporting cast, and that’s bad news for a lineup that had all sorts of difficulties trying to run and ward off an intense pass rush from STL when the teams met recently.

An incredible Battlehawk fanbase in the Gateway City could produce another 30,000+ strong at the contest this Saturday. That’s another reason to think that the pass-protection woes from Week 6 will only get worse for Vegas in such a noisy, partisan atmosphere.

WagerBop’s Pick: Battlehawks ATS (-7)

Arlington Renegades at Orlando Guardians (Saturday, April 8)

How have bookmakers responded to the Orlando Guardians’ first win of the season, which came against the most difficult foe possible? Surely, spring’s otherwise distracted XFL odds-makers wouldn’t overreact by slapping a favorite’s line this Saturday on the Guardians.

However, that’s exactly what has happened. Orlando (-1.5) has slight point spread and moneyline edges over Arlington (+100), as the Renegades appear to be sliding ever-backward just as the Guardians find their footing. Thanks to an offense that’s ranked last in scoring, Arlington comes into the weekend having lost 2 consecutive home games.

The Arlington Renegades were the ball-hawking heroes of XFL weekends a few weeks ago. But any point-scoring effort based on interception returns and broken-play flukes is bound to dry up, making Orlando chiefly responsible for the game’s healthy O/U (42.5) point-total line in addition to inspiring the biggest surprise of the betting board in 2023.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets

Houston Roughnecks at San Antonio Brahmas (Sunday, April 9)

Sportsbooks may be overreacting to the XFL’s midseason scores, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the odds on Houston (-5) vs San Antonio for this Sunday. Houston still leads the XFL’s weak South Division at 4-3 but has suffered a 3-game losing streak as the slate turns tough with warmer weather. The Roughnecks’ previous weekday losses didn’t potentially drive the slump’s storyline home quite like last Sunday’s defeat to the guest Battlehawks, whose QB A.J. McCarron badly out-played Houston signal-caller Cole MacDonald while toiling for the far more disciplined team in a decisive trouncing.

Why do bookmakers think the defensively stout San Antonio Brahmas make such a perfect get-well opponent for Houston? Maybe because the Brahmas, to the dismay of Miami graduate and XFL proprietor Dwayne “The Brahma Bull” Johnson, look a whole lot like an FBS program that’s blown a golden opportunity to win games against a soft stretch of its conference schedule. In Week 4, the Seattle Sea Dragons were still underwater, but the Brahmas lost to the Dragons anyway. You couldn’t have asked for a more vulnerable home-and-home series opponent than fading Arlington in midseason, but San Antonio mined only a single close-call win in those games, then went on to lose in Sin City.

The Brahmas’ good defense could make Sunday’s early game close on the scoreboard even as the final result feels inexorable. If speculators think the Houston-San Antonio point spread is exaggerated, that’s a rational enough angle. But gamblers who make cocky moneyline picks on the ‘dog may “lose in Vegas” just like the Brahmas in Week 7.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (41)

D.C. Defenders at Seattle Sea Dragons (Sunday, April 9)

Here is Week 8’s biggest surprise of the XFL betting board. The D.C. Defenders, unbeaten and thought to be invincible against all but the league’s very best lineups as of less than a week ago, are now (+1.5) point-spread underdogs at Seattle for a “Sunday night football” (read: lowercase) kickoff with an inflated Over/Under (46.5) total points line.

WagerBop can only point out that D.C. didn’t really do anything that badly against Orlando, but fell victim to a hot passing game after stuffing the Guardians’ rushing attempts for most of the contest. The problem for the 6-1 Defenders is that even if the defensive secondary is the club’s only shaky depth chart, that still makes the North Division’s leaders vulnerable against the vaunted aerial game of Seattle.

The Sea Dragons (-125) have won 5 times in a row behind QB Ben DiNucci and a colorful cast of receivers, allowing Seattle to pull even with St. Louis in the division race. However, the Sunday night hosts have only beaten a single winning team (Houston), manufacturing only a thin win over Vegas to avoid starting 0-3 on the cycle.

Seattle’s offense went into a Week 7 shell after going ahead 21-9 vs Arlington, scoring just 3 points in the latter half while prevailing 24-15 thanks to a poor opposing charge.

WagerBop’s Pick: Defenders (+115)