XFL Week 9 Odds and Previews: St. Louis Battlehawks vs Seattle Sea Dragons Point Spread Pick and Saturday’s Best Over/Under

That old, chilling specter of parity is hardly heaped-on the American football fan these days, whether we’re talking about the NFL in the 2020s, comparing the conferences of FBS pigskin, or forecasting the XFL playoffs.

Stout favorites and steep underdogs are generally a good thing in sports, a key ingredient behind the shock-drama of outcomes like Orlando 37, D.C. 36 in Week 7, or the Gateway City hosting the XFL’s maiden OT “shoot-out” in Week 8, in which the St. Louis Battlehawks just escaped the spoiling Vegas Vipers.

Though with 2 months of football games now on the books, the XFL’s 2023 season is starting to take on a characteristic that’s similar to a parity-filled campaign in the NFL or the SEC. Underdog teams have adjusted to what XFL betting and Daily Fantasy favorites are doing, leading to upset bids and occasionally a stunning final score. Yet the superior ability and confidence of Washington D.C., Houston, St. Louis, and Seattle is like a “time-bomb” capable of ruining any pick on an underdog, if the better team grabs momentum.

Gateway City fans, for example, might have thought the St. Louis Battlehawks’ promised playoff bid had gone glimmering last weekend, once the Vegas Vipers took a 17-8 lead in the Dome at America’s Center. But the Battlehawks had other ideas, winning the game in an OT “shoot-out” after hitting speedster Gary Jennings for a massive fake-punt score.

St. Louis is a tasty favorite ATS at reasonable lines this weekend … but it may be Arlington that’s the best pick against-the-spread on the new XFL’s penultimate week of play.

XFL Betting Odds and Recommended Picks in Week 9

Vegas Vipers at Houston Roughnecks (Saturday, April 15)

Has the time come to start picking well-motivated XFL teams to cover the spread against dead-in-the-water spring league lineups? Not if Houston’s recent history is any type of indication. The Roughnecks sweated through a lousy 4th quarter vs San Antonio and held on to win 17-15 in Week 8, merely to snap a 3-game losing streak that threatened to pull Space City down and out of the lead in the easier of 2 XFL divisions. Vegas feels like a live-underdog pick after taking St. Louis into overtime despite a 2-win record.

Saturday’s early tussle could be a case of 2 relatively uninspired teams, not just 2-6 Vegas. The Houston Roughnecks could lose both of their final 2 regular-season games and still win the South Division, unless Arlington happens to upset the D.C. Defenders in Washington D.C. this weekend. Sure, the Roughnecks would love to clinch a division title on Saturday, but nothing has come easy for a Houston team that went 0-3 against the league’s best teams before getting the nail-biter win over San Antonio. Of course, a chunk of Houston’s roster is just trying to reach the NFL, but another may be looking forward to the 11th week.

The standard (-110) FanDuel odds on either side of O/U (43.5) total points may be vulnerable to a calm, rational pick that’s not very fun to cheer for. “Neutral” recreational gamblers bet the “Over” and cheer for both offenses at every chance, but On Saturday, a low side forecast is the smarter handicap for Roughnecks-Vipers.

The Roughnecks are bound to carefully protect any 10+ point lead like it’s the Pink Panther diamond, especially after what Houston’s been through in midseason, while Vegas hasn’t gotten any more explosive on offense following a late March change in quarterbacks.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (43.5)

Orlando Guardians at San Antonio Brahmas (Saturday, April 15)

There’s only one solid defense taking the field for Saturday’s later game, though there was additionally no way the Over/Under line was going to open on a total of 40+ points.

Orlando and San Antonio are scheduled to meet in a nickel-and-dime scrum to determine who takes the cellar in the South Division, and while the Brahmas have a nice defense that warrants respect, Orlando’s brief flourish of competitive games is countered by an ugly 230+ points-against mark for the 1-7 Guardians after 8 outings. When users win their “Under” betting picks on Guardians’ games, it’s usually not because Orlando’s defense played outstanding, but because the clock is chewed up by the team’s methodical offense.

Should we recommend handicaps on games one would advise WagerBop readers not to watch? Maybe not, but San Antonio (-1.5) ATS and Under (39.5) could be valuable markets for those not concerned with the popularity of games they’re speculating on. With a slim chance to tie Arlington for 2nd place, the slow-paced Brahmas will likely feature their tailback corps and try to grind Orlando’s soft D down for a sure-thing conquest.

WagerBop’s Pick: Brahmas ATS (-1.5)

Arlington Renegades at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, April 16)

One can’t deny that the D.C. Defenders (-8.5) are superior to this Sunday’s visiting Arlington Renegades. D.C.’s last 2 shaky performances notwithstanding, the Defenders are still leading the powerful North Division at 7-1, ranked #1 in the XFL in scoring, and #1 in both rushing and rush defense. The Defenders are second-to-none in betting action on XFL futures odds, while Arlington is still trying to prod a next-to-last-place offense into shape.

Notwithstanding, an (-8.5) point spread is not an ordinary kind of sportsbook line for a game between 1st place and 2nd place, even from disparate divisions. With an (-8.5) point spread, the favored team can prevail comfortably by a score like 22-14 and still lose for its ATS investors. D.C.’s slowing momentum means that the club cannot simply run Read-Option plays and win by double-digits over Arlington. Yet, Jordan Ta’amu’s offense may not quite be prepared to pass 30+ times against a star-studded Renegade defensive backfield that includes LSU product Darren Evans and Baltimore Ravens alum Will Hill.

The ball-hawking unit has kept the Renegades in the playoff race almost by its own efforts alone, with the offense stinking-up Texas worse than a reform school facing Skyline Prep.

WagerBop’s Pick: Renegades ATS (+8.5)

Seattle Sea Dragons at St. Louis Battlehawks (Sunday, April 16)

WagerBop blogged earlier this season that odds-makers weren’t accounting for the St. Louis Battlehawks’ obvious home-field advantage in a rational, businesslike way. Just because the ‘Hawks are a decidedly better team when rushing the passer in front of sold-out America’s Center crowds doesn’t mean that they should be penalized (+3) “road” points in Orlando, where the crowd is much more subdued.

The STL Battlehawks’ (-1.5) spread and (-120) moneyline in Week 9 can be said to “account” for a home-field edge against 5-3 division rival Seattle. But the lines still may not account for just how resourceful St. Louis can be in the 4th quarter when the chips are down.

Undoubtedly, the Week 9 status of injured QB A.J. McCarron is a huge angle in determining whether St. Louis is a quality pick against the Sea Dragons and Ben DiNucci.

Shoulder injuries such as the Alabama alum suffered in Week 7 often knock a signal-caller out for more than a game. However, the week’s reporting on the XFL’s own website infers that McCarron was held out of what looked to be a “lopsided” game in Week 8 so that he could return for the final, crucial segment of STL’s regular season.

Setting a tone of optimism for Week 9, FanDuel’s O/U (45.5) total points line anticipates the QB’s return behind center for STL, rather than his continued injury absence.

For WagerBop’s part, we think the Battlehawks are at least a field-goal better than the Sea Dragons on a neutral field, let alone in the XFL’s rowdiest and most partisan environment.

WagerBop’s Pick: Battlehawks ATS (-1.5)