Newsflash – sports change over time. The teams that were good 10 years ago are no longer good. The stars of yesterday are now washed up veterans. A new wave of young talent has taken over.
Failing to keep up with these changes will lead you to make poor wagering decisions. In other words, you’ll lose money.
Bryce Harper – that’s a name you’ve heard of, right? He’s a star!
Not anymore. Have you seen his numbers lately? Here they are since the beginning of 2019.
| G | AVG | HR | RBI | WAR |
| 253 | .264 | 55 | 160 | 7.5 |
Harper has the big name, but his production has declined sharply since his earlier years in the league. There are similar traps like these all over sports – players and teams whose names are associated with success that are no longer successful.
This is going to be a fun exercise. Think of this as an MLB reality check. If you stay up-to-date on things, you’ll do fine. This will serve as a wake-up call to those who haven’t looked at baseball stats in a while.
Player A, Player B, or Player C
The game is simple. I will show the stats of 3 “mystery” players. Decide in your head which you would rather add to your fantasy team or make a prop bet on. Then I will reveal who the 3 players are, but not which is which. You must decide which is A, B, and C.
This first one will show the 2021 stats of 3 mystery starting pitchers. Take a look.
| Player A | Player B | Player C | |
| Record | 2-5 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| K/9 | 7.18 | 11.32 | 7.66 |
| ERA | 3.08 | 1.74 | 4.74 |
| WHIP | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.50 |
We can probably all agree that Player C is having the worst season of the 3, while B is performing at an elite level.
I will now tell you the 3 pitchers that appeared above, but I will not tell you which is which. In no particular order, they are Kyle Hendricks, Matt Boyd, and Trevor Rogers. Without looking up the stats, which do you think is which?
I’ll avoid a spoiler by posting the answer at the end of the article. I suggest waiting until you’ve tried all 3 exercises before checking the answers to avoid accidentally seeing another answer.
Player D, Player E, or Player F
3 hitters this time. Once again, these are their 2021 stats.
| Player D | Player E | Player F | |
| AVG | .267 | .279 | .200 |
| HR | 11 | 12 | 3 |
| RBI | 21 | 38 | 9 |
| R | 28 | 29 | 19 |
| SB | 8 | 3 | 3 |
Here are the 3 hitters in no particular order. Try to figure out which is which: Francisco Lindor, Rafael Devers, Ramon Laureano.
Once again, the answers are at the end, but I recommend not skipping down right now to avoid spoiling another answer.
Player G, Player H, or Player I
One last time. Here are 3 more mystery hitters and their 2021 stats. A chance to redeem yourself.
| Player G | Player H | Player I | |
| AVG | .151 | .246 | .257 |
| HR | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| RBI | 23 | 5 | 31 |
| R | 23 | 11 | 32 |
| SB | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Player I pops out as the most productive of the group here.
In no particular order, these hitters are Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Victor Robles. Which is which? The answers are directly below.
WARNING! SPOILER ALERT – ANSWERS
Here are the answers to the games above:
Player A – Matt Boyd Player B – Trevor Rogers Player C – Kyle Kendricks
Kyle Hendricks is the most notable name of this group but is the least successful the trio in 2021. Hendricks’ heyday was back in the 2016-2018 era. Trevor Rogers and Matt Boyd are each relatively unknown but are both quietly spinning gem after gem.
Player D – Ramon Laureano Player E – Rafael Devers Player F – Francisco Lindor
Yeah, Francisco Lindor sucks this year. Going solely off name recognition would kill you in 2021 as Lindor is a perennial all-star having a down season. Laureano has never hit this good in the past while Devers is building on a good 2019 campaign.
Player G – Eugenio Suarez Player H – Victor Robles Player I – Mitch Haniger
Eugenio Suarez had a breakout 40-homer season and then returned to mediocrity. Victor Robles used to be mentioned in the same breath as Juan Soto. It always used to be “Soto and Robles” … not anymore.
Mitch Haniger – of all people – is having a tremendous season over in Seattle.
How did you do? If you nailed all 9 mystery players – congratulations! If you at least knew who the best player was each time – very good!
Let this be a lesson: making bets based on name recognition and reputation will get you in a world of trouble. You need to stay current on the stats.
See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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