Do you like the feeling of winning a competition? Do you ever wish you had more money?
If your answer to either of these questions is “yes” (or even “maybe”), then you should continue reading!
I’ve dug up several hot trends that MLB bettors have been exploiting all month. Let’s check them out!
Bet Home Teams Blindly
Home teams are 125-85 SU (59.5%) in the month of September. An average moneyline of (-126) means these faves must win at a 55.7% clip to break even. The power of large volume is on full display here. A 4% edge nets a September moneyline profit of $2,396 – an 8.1% ROI.
A large chunk of this profit came yesterday – September 15th. Home teams played to a 10-4 record with an average moneyline of (-121). This is good for a $615 profit – a 33% ROI.
Be Wary of Laying Odds on Huge Favorites
Teams with winning records are struggling to consistently beat teams with losing records in September. Teams above .500 are 72-59 SU (55%) against teams at or below .500. Just because they are winning more than they are losing doesn’t mean they are a profitable bet. An average moneyline of (-160) means these good teams must win 61.5% of their games to break even. 55% is not cutting it. In the month of September alone, winning teams are down $1,721 against teams at or below .500. This is an ROI of -7.9%.
Conversely, betting teams at or below .500 against winning teams has been very profitable the last 2 weeks. These teams are up $960 – an ROI of 6.9%.
Winning teams are an even worse bet on the runline against weak competition. Runline favorites must win by at least 2 runs to cash on their bet. Teams above .500 have beaten weak teams 72 times this month. 21 of those wins were by 1 run. On the runline, teams above .500 are just 57-74 (43.5%) with an average line of (-106). This equates to -$2,270 in losses for an ROI of -14.8%.
The Padres Can Do No Wrong
The San Diego Padres are the most profitable team on the moneyline in September. The Friars are 10-3 SU this month (76.9%). Even with a stiff average line of (-143), Padres bettors have grinded out a $715 profit.
SD has pulled themselves to within 2.5 games of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Entering play on September 1, the Padres were 4.5 games back. The Dodgers are 8-5 in September and have seen their lead cut in half. The Padres face LA just once more this season – Wednesday afternoon.
A New AL Central Darling?
The White Sox are the most profitable American League team of September. The Southsiders are 10-3 SU (76.9%) this month with an average moneyline of (-154). This is good for a profit of $675.
Don’t Trust Cheaters
The least profitable team of September is the fledgling Houston Astros. The Cheatin ‘Stros are 5-10 SU (33.3%) this month. This is especially terrible considering Houston is the betting favorite in most games with an average September moneyline of (-132). Astros bettors have lost -$728 this month.
The Astros are currently sitting 5.5 games behind Oakland for first place in the AL West. Houston was just 2.5 games back entering play on September 1. The Astros and A’s do not meet again in the regular season.