NFL Odds and Predictions: Vikings vs Browns ATS and 5 Other Best Bets

Prep and NCAA pigskin analysts have learned to appreciate simple angles in the COVID era, as rusty teams show up having missed-out on weeks of practices, games, or both. NFL bloggers can join the club following a bizarre Week 3 in which everyone forgot the obvious.

The Kansas City Chiefs forgot to look after their HC’s health, falling unexpectedly to 1-2 as head coach Andy Reid struggles to get back up and around. Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury forgot that a 70-yard field goal attempt would hand a free TD to Jacksonville, and the officials whiffed on an easy delay-of-game penalty at Ford Field that would have prevented Justin Tucker’s record-smashing winner for Baltimore.

Are bookmakers missing anything obvious in the NFL’s Week 4 slate? Not necessarily – but the commotion in Motor City about a field goal that shouldn’t have been is merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how floating footballs and uprights can affect the moneyline in irrational ways. Minnesota, for instance, missed a Week 2 FG attempt that would have beaten Arizona, and the kick just happened to go a few feet wide. Those few feet have shown up in the Vikings point spread.

First, though, let’s look at a team no one expected to sit ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC.

NFL Week 5 Betting Lines and Recommended Picks

TNF: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars new head coach Urban Meyer has gone from a prince of the SEC to a pauper in the NFL. Meyer’s debut season with the Jaguars could not be going worse, with the team mired at 0-3 with 3 consecutive double-digit losses. Cincinnati stands at 2-1 with 2 upset victories and is drawing ATS bets at (-7.5) for a TNF kickoff with an over under line of (46.5).

In truth, the Jaguars have shown flashes of spoiler-potential if not a winning NFL level of execution this season. Trevor Lawrence is the real deal as expected, and helped Jacksonville build a 19-10 lead on Arizona in Week 3 prior to the defensive implosion.

Jax’s healthy rushing stats from the contest are deceiving, as Meyer’s offensive line wilted in the 4th quarter and marooned RB James Robinson. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has developed as an under-pressure field general since succumbing to the Alabama pass rush in 2018. Burrow still flourishes or falters with his pocket-protection more than a typical NFL signal-caller does, and that dichotomy could be the key angle for predicting Thursday’s game.

The Bengals suffered a loss to Chicago in Week 2 in a game where Burrow was sacked 5 times. The following week, however, the team managed to ward-off the Pittsburgh Steelers and protect the 2nd-year QB. Jacksonville’s rush has been frustrated by the speed of Tyrod Taylor and Kyler Murray so far, making us think Cincy will have a hard time racking-up 30+ points in the game.

Recommended bet: Under (46.5)

Sunday 1 PM: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

As the legendary coach John Madden once said, “it’s never as good as you think it is when you win, and it’s never as bad as you think it is when you lose.” A corollary of Madden’s take on gridiron psychology is that a made-or-missed field goal try can often change how Las Vegas and the betting public thinks about a team, even when the place-kicker’s miss doesn’t really impact the heart of analytics.

If a chip-shot FG attempt off PK Greg Joseph’s boot had not missed its mark at the end of Week 2’s game in Arizona, the Minnesota Vikings may have a lot more momentum and a positive W/L record to boot. But the Norsemen are also inches & feet away from having gone 3-0 and undefeated against the NFC West, and there’s no such thing as a loss of motivation from being 1-2. If anything, 3-0 might have caused Minnesota to let its guard down against upcoming opponents.

The Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield have been a shining example of resiliency for the past 12 months, but what are the Dawgs doing that’s so special to draw a (-2.5) favorite’s line on the road? Cleveland’s ground game looks to be dynamite in 2021, opening up many more chances for Mayfield to find a talented WR corps with the pigskin. At the same time, the Browns have been winning the LOS against lousy teams since Week 1, when Cleveland’s offense produced almost no points in the 2nd half vs Kansas City. Right now, Kirk Cousins has the hot hand and a pretty good tailback of his own in Dalvin Cook, who will probably return from injury for next week’s game.

Recommended bet: Vikings (+2.5)

Sunday 1 PM: Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

It seems like Christian McCaffrey is always getting hurt. The prodigal “slash” tailback will not remain a Fantasy superstar for much longer if fans (and Carolina coaches) spend another 1-2 years wringing their hands over McCaffrey’s health. This time, it’s a hamstring injury from Week 3 that could leave the ‘Cats shorthanded in the offensive backfield for weeks to come.

Is it possible that the Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) have lucked their way into an NFC East lead at the quarter-rail? QB Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys will garner additional hype after whipping the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. That being said, the Cowboys usually let their faithful down unexpectedly about 1x per month at Jerry World, and a sluggish 1st-half offense from Dallas following a Monday night game wouldn’t be a surprise. On the flip side, Carolina’s replacement for McCaffrey is somebody named Chuba Hubbard, who may turn out to be a quality NFL running back, but sounds more like a local game-show host instead. The game’s most likely outcome is Dallas rebounding to win by a FG or a TD after the Panthers take a halftime lead only to lose control of the ball in the second half.

Recommended bet: Cowboys Live Moneyline (Halftime Bet)

Sunday 4:25 PM: Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Detroit fans may eventually forgive the NFL for a blown delay-of-game call that led to Justin Tucker’s insane 66-yard winner off the crossbar at Ford Field. After all, they witnessed a piece of history that will be remembered long after the pain of a loss. For gamblers, though, the relevant question is how Baltimore will react to its miracle victory, and whether that’s bound to produce a hangover or a spirited win next Sunday.

Though the Broncos (-1) are undefeated on the season, the group resembles a high school team that’s blown out Horse & Saddle Prep and other “powerhouses” to maintain its record. Baltimore will provide the first real test for a Denver club that’s posted breezy wins over the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, not exactly the 3 most-promising teams in the NFL. Denver’s record must be respected, but speculators should watch for Lamar Jackson to shine again vs a Bronco defense that allowed Trevor Lawrence a few nice scrambles against a struggling Jaguars team.

Recommended bet: Ravens (+1)

SNF: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots

The tale of Week 4’s Sunday Night Football is head coach Bill Belichick taking on his old quarterback along with the defending Super Bowl champions. Bookmakers and betting clients are looking forward to a cat-and-mouse game that occurs when recreational gamblers pick their bets based on ESPN soundbytes. As an example, the Over/Under total for this week’s SNF game is soaring at about 50 points, a pretty high number considering the teams that are playing.

It may be that Brady wants to teach his old coach a lesson, but Belichick is more interested in keeping the 1-2 Pats in a tight game for 4 quarters. If he fails, and Tampa scores 4+ times, the Patriots will probably not be able to keep pace offensively. If the legendary QB tries to do too much in the early going and New England takes the lead, The Hoodie will want to keep the high-octane Buccaneers right where he has them, rather than speed up the course of play.

Recommended bet: Under (49.5)

MNF: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

On Monday night, City of Angels faithful will host a franchise that’s jilted L.A. more than once over the years – the Silver and Black. The Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) are off to a promising start in 2021, but pigskin pundits already fell in love with Justin Herbert several years ago, and his fine Week 3 outing won’t change that. Offenses are still fairly healthy and the Raiders are glad to play wide-open under fearless coach Jon Gruden, making a (52.5) Over/Under total seem cautious. With any Nike-slash-Oregon favoritism in the mainstream media set aside, this week’s MNF contest between Herbert and visiting QB Derek Carr could be one of this year’s must see matchups.

Recommended bet: Over (52.5)