Week 9 NFL Preview: Broncos at Cowboys O/U Line and Pick, MNF Spread Prediction

Aw man, the NFL is having itself a hell of a week, and it’s not even time for Thursday Night Football yet. We’d better get all of the grim stuff out of the way early, or no one will make it to the end of Week 9’s prediction scroll.

TNF, of course, is belying its reputation as a slop-fest, arguably captivating NFL fans and gamblers like never before. The Arizona Cardinals hosted Green Bay for what might have been the best Thursday Night Football battle ever in Week 8. Cheeseheads filled the Big Toaster with cheers for the visiting Packers, but Cardinal fans got a chance to roar as Kyler Murray closed in on the winning TD, only for A.J. Green’s fatigue to cause a fatal end-zone error with #1 target DeAndre Hopkins missing from the game.

Of course, the Cardinals-Packers classic wouldn’t be the top headline, not after another 5 days of a chaotic NFL season. Upset losses for the Cards, Rams, and Buccaneers would normally be a lead barber-shop topic on Wednesday, but given the other events in New Orleans on Sunday and in Las Vegas on Tuesday, the talk of touchdowns and field goals can leave a sour taste.

Tampa Bay linebacker Devin White’s dirty tackle of Jameis Winston, which caused the New Orleans QB’s season-ending ACL tear, is not just part of an unfortunate profile of White as a recidivistic cheap-shot artist and QB head-hunter.

It highlights how the sport of American pigskin must either evolve, or suffer a slow, dreary road to oblivion in the 21st century. Now that the link between on-the-field head trauma and mental health problems is well known, the tactic of head-hunting QBs should be considered a barbaric practice, with a zero-tolerance policy standardized across all American and Canadian leagues. The act of touching an opponent above the shoulders must become like the “hand-ball” in a soccer match, a no-no with a penalty so severe that players go out of their way to avoid it. Otherwise, within 20 years, our Sunday afternoon ritual could go bye-bye.

As for the Saints, they’re not likely to go “bye-bye” in the NFC South race, even with a backup QB at the helm and trades for more QBs on the horizon. Sunday’s win was arguably Sean Payton’s finest coaching performance in a career full of triumphs.

Meanwhile, in a shocking turn, the AFC West-leading Las Vegas Raiders are a topic of scandal for the 2nd time this season. This time, the off-the-field disaster is too sad to comprehend. Former Las Vegas wide receiver Henry Ruggs III was arrested and charged with DUI-resulting-in-death on Tuesday after driving in excess of 150 MPH and causing a fiery accident that took the life of a 23-year-old woman. Ruggs was officially released by the club on Wednesday, but it’s safe to say the Las Vegas Raiders will grapple with the tragedy for years to come.

The team’s W/L record now matters very little in the big picture, and surely the Las Vegas players are starting to feel that way too. Nevertheless, the NFL’s rather tone-deaf handicappers are taking 3 points from the Silver & Black in Week 9.

Does it make sense? No, but why should the odds make sense when nothing else does?

Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks for NFL Week 9

TNF: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

At just 2-5, are the New York Jets officially considered a live underdog? Of course, a “live underdog” is betting lingo for “spoiler candidate,” but there’s a question as to whether New York’s pair of victories are just part of the mundanity of sparing wins in a 5-11 season or whether they could add up to real momentum.

New York came alive on offense against the Bengals, as unheralded QB Mike White overcame turnovers, sacks, and penalties to produce over 400 passing yards and lead New York to a 34-31 upset win. The development of an effective downfield passing game could add a dimension that’s been missing from the Jets for ages, as defense-oriented coaches have spent most of the modern era yelling at the team to tackle harder in 17-9 defeats. Sam Darnold’s brief success in the Big Apple was a mirage, but White’s improving WR corps and ground game could deliver production that’s more lasting.

Despite the potential momentum, FanDuel is offering a wide (+10.5) point-spread pick for New York on TNF. Sure, you can make an argument that the Colts deserve better than 3 wins and 2 losses after 5 weeks of solid pigskin, but Indianapolis still stands at 3-5 overall. Bookmakers are reasoning that the subpar Jets won’t prepare enough in time to win a short-order kick-off in prime time, but following NY’s big win, a fast week could help keep the underdogs afloat for all 4 quarters.

Recommended bet: Jets (+10.5)

11/7: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday’s clash at Jerry World offers an optimistic Over/Under line of (49.5) points. While it’s valid to say that Cooper Rush has been vindicated as a potential NFL starter following Big D’s dramatic win in Minnesota, it’s the Dallas defense that gave Rush an opportunity to win by making opposing RB Dalvin Cook look ordinary during crucial moments.

The Broncos have been trying – and failing – to build a healthy offense forever, and the team’s 4-4 record belies a low TD count and few TOP advantages. Mike McCarthy’s offense was largely devoid of aggressive “stretch” running plays in Week 8, but with 1st-string QB Dak Prescott on the mend and 2 running backs playing well, the veteran HC could dial up a much more direct and time-consuming play selection than expected.

Recommended bet: Under (49.5)

11/7: Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens (-6) are coming off a much-needed bye week, but the best reason to pick Baltimore is not because of the rested legs but because of the team’s opponent.

The 3-5 Minnesota Vikings may be demoralized this week, as the team lost a national-TV game at home to a backup QB and a supposedly “soft” opposing defense. Preparing to play the Baltimore Ravens is like preparing to play Army West Point – with enough practice time and a healthy attitude, a defense has a fighting chance to shut down Lamar Jackson. Given the events of Week 8, it is unlikely that the Vikings will be up to such a challenge.

Recommended bet: Ravens (-6)

11/7: Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants

The Giants helped save the WagerBop NFL blog’s prediction record in Week 8, covering a double-digit point spread pick by losing to Kansas City 20-17. However, New York’s brave effort at Arrowhead isn’t the only reason why Sin City’s line of (-3) on Sunday’s kickoff in East Rutherford is a few cans short of a 6-pack.

The Big Blue could be a slight money-line favorite based on merit alone, given the Raiders’ recent topsy-turvy winning record. But the Giants are also recovering from injuries and are poised to at least begin to make noise against a powerful NFC field. The Giants could be 6-point favorites when considering what the Raiders are going through from a mental perspective.

Las Vegas officially released Henry Ruggs on Wednesday, but the Raiders will grapple with the tragedy caused by Ruggs’ carelessness for years to come. The team’s W/L record now matters very little in the big picture, and the idea that a team can unexpectedly rally from 2 major scandals in half of a season is highly unlikely.

Recommended bet: Giants (+3)

11/7: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinal fans would have little to be sad about following last Thursday’s loss if not for the bad news about J.J. Watt.

In 17-game NFL seasons, everyone is going to lose sometime, and the Cardinals and Packers put on a dramatic, heart-stopping show that rivaled Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald’s final hurrah vs. the Pack in 2015. However, the loss of Watt as a talisman pass-rusher and run-stuffer puts the Big Red defense right back where it was in 2020 … talented, but untested as a unit, and missing some key cogs in the system. The 49ers (+1.5) are the true favorite as a desperate 3-4 team hosting a fierce rival.

Recommended bet: 49ers (+106)

SNF: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams

“FBS”-style NFL teams have been spanking their opponents this season, and yet Sean McVay’s pro-style playbook has produced a box score worthy of Friday Night Lights.

The L.A. Rams won their 5th-straight game last Sunday by out-scoring Houston 38-0 in the opening 45:00. Robert Woods scored the game’s most effortless TD to cap off L.A.’s scoring just as the 4th quarter was set to begin, giving McVay a chance to clear his bench. Houston QB Davis Mills and much of his supporting cast stayed in for the 4th quarter as the Texans scored “consolation” points against the Rams’ backups-of-backups.

The Rams’ practice-squad players may be criticized by NFL “stat-junkies” for their poor form in 4th quarter “trash time.” Maybe the L.A. depth chart isn’t quite up to par on the 3rd or 4th string, but keep in mind that any team forced to start its practice-squad reserve players in an important game would have to be so beset by injuries that losing would almost be a guarantee.

The Titans, meanwhile, hailed a Week 8 win in Indianapolis while fearing the worst for RB Derrick Henry’s foot, which will need surgery and a substantial period of rehab. The long-term loss of King Henry would take away the #1 ingredient of Tennessee’s winning formula in 2021-22, and cause the Titans to struggle amongst a stiff conference field.

Is Henry’s absence causing FanDuel’s (53.5) Sunday Night Football O/U line to rise?

Strong rushing games are considered clock-killers, but the syndrome of a missing superstar is far more likely to reduce a game’s overall scoring rate than add to it. We also have ample, recent evidence that if the favored Rams (-7.5) go ahead by a lot, McVay will quickly dial things down.

Recommended bet: Under (53.5)

MNF: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers

After winning by such tight margins so far this season, bookmakers are shy to give the Black & Gold a full TD and XP on the point spread. Pittsburgh (-6) eked out an OT win over Seattle 2 games ago, then defeated Cleveland just 15-10 despite holding Nick Chubb and the Dawg backfield to less than 100 rushing years on the field.

Margins of victory may not be what Mike Tomlin is most interested in, but he’s sure as shootin’ interested in more victories, with the Steelers locked into a precarious Wild Card race in the AFC already. Chicago’s offense has been so sluggish that Pittsburgh should be able to manufacture a 5+ point halftime lead on field position and opportunistic play-calls alone. When that happens, look for “Big Ben” to take big shots downfield.

Recommended bet: Steelers (-6)