NFL Thanksgiving Weekend Odds, Lines, and Picks: Giants vs Eagles O/U Forecast and Series History

I’ve often said that sports-gambling isn’t gambling at all. It’s a sport of its own. If you’re at a restaurant with 20 bucks riding on the Dodgers, and the Bums cover the Run Line, you’ll gladly spend the payoff on a deluxe dessert. Just as fans spend $3000 vacationing in Sin City and celebrate being “in the black” after winning a $1500 parlay (for a net “profit” of -$1500), the bottom line isn’t always the thing. A bank account’s primary number might be Billy Walters’ top priority. Non-tycoon sports bettors are happy to beat the bookmaker and ignore all other concerns.

But as John Madden said, it’s never as good as you think it is when you win. Seeing the NFL sportsbook as a “sporting” adventure puts the handicapper in the same mental gear as a head coach. Wins are great, and leave you wanting more wins. It’s the losses that dwell in the mind, causing nothing but pain, angst, and obsession.

No, this isn’t another blog-introduction about “bad beats.” Bad beats aren’t really bad beats, they’re just losses on picks that weren’t accurate enough to hedge against bad luck. Breaks even-out but bad NFL angles won’t correct themselves on their own. Learning from mistakes at the sportsbook – thank goodness – is often easier when you’re on a hot streak and the L’s stand out like sore turf-toes.

WagerBop went 10-2 on American pigskin picks between last Thursday and Sunday, and yet our FBS and NFL losses (on Michigan State and the New York Giants respectively) were so dreadful as to be an embarrassment. MSU looked like Horse & Saddle Prep against Big City High at Ohio State, and the Giants were demoralized again in the 2nd half of a 31-10 loss to Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.

Is that why we’re avoiding NFL picks on wide point spreads this week? It’s certainly intriguing how Las Vegas is predicting so many blow-outs in games between tough, comparable rivals of college and pro football. Point spreads that appear exaggerated are turning out to be tiny margins compared to Saturday and Sunday’s final scores. Fortuitously, there are so many tightly-handicapped games on Thanksgiving Weekend that we don’t have to grapple with the angle for a while.

Everyone had to know a 5-month NFL season would get weird in the middle. On Turkey Day and going forward, tightly-handicapped odds and spreads can at least give National Football League speculators something concrete to hold onto. Next time there’s a (-19) point spread on a pro football game, we’ll be asking ourselves if bookmakers have become impetuous fans…or if the spread should be (-38).

Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks on NFL Week 12

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving Day)

Holiday betting odds offer the Detroit Lions as a bad point-spread pick and a worthy money-line pick…in the same game.

Despite an 0-9-1 record, Motown deserves credit for its mojo as an underdog. Detroit proved points by contesting the L.A. Rams in a 28-19 loss prior to tying the Pittsburgh Steelers and coming ever-so-close to an upset in Cleveland. The winless Lions aren’t such a bad football team if one can forget the small matter of winning.

Chicago, with a pedestrian offense and transitional QB play, isn’t likely to ring-up a hefty TD total and run bitter rivals off the Thanksgiving pitch at Ford Field. Detroit will have chances to produce a W and stop the bleeding in front of a crowd full of enthusiasm.

The fact that Bears players are reportedly fed-up with HC Matt Nagy doesn’t help the visitors’ chances to win. But the Lions are demoralized following 3 solid performances with nothing to show.

So long as Thursday’s game is close, and Detroit’s backup QB Tim Boyle isn’t under heavy pressure, Chicago (-3.5) will have a long row to hoe. That’s good for Detroit’s money-line gamblers at tasty (+152) betting odds. On the other hand, if Chicago takes a 14+ point lead halfway through the battle, Detroit is more likely to fall apart than make 1st downs.

The potential “back-door” cover scenario is part of any underdog ATS pick. If the woebegone Detroit Lions don’t get off to a strong start this week, chances for a maiden W will dwindle quickly.

Recommended bet: Lions (+152)

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (Thursday Night Football)

WagerBop has been unable to find a high-value pick recommendation on Thanksgiving Day’s crown jewel, the Dallas Cowboys hosting a kickoff at Jerry World. Dallas is the superior team and a (-7.5) point spread favorite over visiting Las Vegas. But the Cowboys rarely win without episodes, and the Raiders have had time to process the tragedy of midseason and find themselves still in AFC contention.

Football fans will have better chances with the New Orleans vs Buffalo game in prime time, a contest for which the Bills are (-5.5) favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook despite chilling evidence of the team’s regression over the past few weeks. It’s true that the Saints have hit a crisis point following a 3-game losing streak, but the Buffalo Bills appear unable to run or defend the run with any consistency, a foul trend headed into a holiday kickoff on the road.

Recommended bet: Saints (+5.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Sunday, November 28)

Pitting the New York Giants (+146) and rival Philadelphia Eagles in a holiday battle shows the obvious ways in which NFL schedules are smart. But blow-outs are the bane of enjoying pigskin on TV, and Philadelphia and New York have been hard pressed to offer one.

When a rivalry consistently results in close games, the series becomes something special. Philadelphia split 2 dramatic contests with New York last season after going 2-0 in 2019 thanks to an OT win at Lincoln Financial Field. But it’s the 2017 game from East Rutherford that sticks in the minds of bookies, who wouldn’t dare to slap a TD-margin point spread on a Giants-Eagles kickoff. Philly led New York 11 wins to 2 in December of a season in which the Eagles would win the NFL crown. Big Blue scored the opening and final TDs of the game and made the Eagles sweat throughout an ultimate 34-29 win.

Will this year’s fierce feud of franchises create another wild betting scenario? The Giants feel like a reasonable host-underdog at (+3.5) points ATS, though the Eagle offense is clearly more dangerous than New York’s slow-paced, injury-addled unit as of Week 12.

Meanwhile, NFL odds-makers are offering O/U bets on a cautious line of (46) points based on New York’s injuries and the cold outdoor atmosphere of New Jersey. The bookmakers would do well to factor-in New York’s likely urgency to respond to early opposing TDs. The Giants’ pointed firing of former OC Jason Garrett during the week may also jolt the Big Blue offense alive against a hated rival for at least 4 quarters.

Recommended bet: Over (46)

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, November 28)

There’s no “underdog” on the books for Lambeau Field’s kickoff by traditional odds-reading metrics, as the Rams are booking bets at (-106) and host Packers are a standard (-110) wager to win.

The Rams’ loss to San Francisco featured a pale looking offense, with QB Matthew Stafford tossing 2 more INTs after throwing 2 costly picks against Tennessee. Stafford was once thought to be beaten down by Detroit’s losing records, and the veteran QB must now fight the perception that he simply fades late in a season.

In order to contend for an NFC title, the Green Bay Packers must reestablish their potent run game. The Pack can’t defeat L.A. by a TD or more without finding the end zone on the ground. But so much for the big picture when there’s a QB at Lambeau who’s mastered every detail. Aaron Rodgers will grab and hold onto advantages over Stafford on a gridiron where the former Lion has rarely feasted.

Recommended bet: Packers (-110)

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday Night Football)

The title of hottest team in the AFC does not belong to the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – that mantle belongs to the New England Patriots or the Kansas City Chiefs. But the Ravens are still flashing tremendous upside in spite of serious injury woes, defeating the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday to move to 7-3 without franchise QB Lamar Jackson in the lineup. Tyler Huntley filled in for Jackson behind center, and damned if the undrafted Utah product didn’t look like a less-experienced, slightly less-explosive version of #8.

Huntley rushed for close to 6 YPC while making enough accurate throws to win a tight game, and while Andy Dalton pierced Baltimore for 2 touchdown passes, the Bears were forced into so many incompletions and 3-and-outs that Huntley’s offense dominated TOP.

Jackson has all but rented a downtown billboard to assure Baltimore fans he’s okay headed into Week 12. That’s good news with the scrappy Cleveland Browns slated to visit.

Cleveland’s timing leaves a lot to be desired as a pick ATS. Things could work out for the Dawgs in January again if the club manages to qualify for a Wild Card berth while gluing its offensive backfield back together. Brutal scheduling quirks such as back-to-back games vs Baltimore and a Packers-Steelers-Bengals finish probably won’t let it happen.

Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (Monday Night Football)

Seattle opened in Las Vegas as a 2-point favorite to beat Washington on Monday night, but so many speculators are going-in on WFT’s markets that the hosts are now (-1) and (-116) wagers ATS and on the moneyline respectively.

Is the gambling public correct that the Seattle Seahawks are in store for another prime-time loss?

Pete Carroll’s team appears to be in decline. All great coaching reigns run into diminishing returns at some point, and Seattle’s motivation to win is about to take a blow with the club standing at 3-7 in a tough conference. Russell Wilson’s return to the offense hasn’t meant much at all so far as the Seahawks fail to block opposing rushers.

But the Seattle defense has been holding good opponents to minimal scoring drives with excellent pass-coverage in “plus” territory, and Washington represents a downgrade in quality-of-opponent to say the least.

It’s likely that the Seahawks will button-up and play solid defense for 60 minutes, while Wilson’s offense runs into still more hazards.

Pick: Under (46.5)