The Jaguars, Texans, Colts, and Titans. Together they comprise the AFC South, one the NFL’s weakest divisions over the past several seasons.
A great beginning to 2018 by the Jaguars is now a distant memory as they struggle through a 4-game losing streak. Conversely, the Texans have totally flipped the script after an 0-3 start and now sit atop the division.
The Colts have yet to string wins together with Andrew Luck back under center. Likewise, the Titans’ new coaching staff is still working to unlock the full potential of Marcus Mariota under center.
It is safe to say that there is much uncertainty in the division. Entering Week 9, it is still a 4-team race.
There is one constant, however – one trend we can capitalize on. Teams in the AFC South have struggled in non-divisional games.
Take a look at the records of non-AFC South teams ATS when they have played AFC South teams since 2013 (including playoffs).
| Year | Record | ROI | Avg Line |
| 2018 | 13-10 | 8.7% | 0.2 |
| 2017 | 22-22-1 | -5% | -2.3 |
| 2016 | 22-19-1 | 2.7% | -2.4 |
| 2015 | 23-18 | 7.8% | -3.1 |
| 2014 | 23-20 | 2.3% | -2.9 |
| 2013 | 26-13-3 | 30% | -4.0 |
| Total | 129-102-5 | 7.3% | -2.6 |
It’s pretty clear, the AFC South is bad. The key is not so much that they are bad but that oddsmakers keep overestimating them. This tells me that the AFC South continually falls short of expectations.
Vegas Loves the AFC South for Some Reason
There is a contradictory pattern emerging in the average lines. Do you see it?
In 2013, opponents were 4-point favorites on average and won 66.7% of the games ATS. You would think the oddsmakers would give the AFC South teams even more points after this disappointment, forcing the average line to -5 or -6. The opposite happened.
In 2014, opponents of AFC South teams were only 2.9-point favorites on average. Unphased by last season’s letdown, oddsmakers displayed even more confidence in the struggling bunch.
Finally, in 2017, AFC South teams won 50% of their out-of-division games ATS. How did Vegas respond to that? By putting even more faith in the South. This season, AFC South teams have actually been favored on average against non-division opponents.
Was that confidence deserved? Probably not. The AFC South is 10-13 ATS out of division thus far in 2018.
Vegas refuses to admit that the AFC South is terrible. Until they correct their lines, we can continue to make money.
Team by Team Breakdown
So is it just one or two teams hurting the overall record or does the entire division struggle across the board? Take a look at these non-division ATS records since 2013 (again, including playoffs).
| Year | Jaguars | Texans | Colts | Titans | Total |
| 2018 | 3-3 | 1-4 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 10-13 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 3-8-1 | 22-22-1 |
| 2016 | 4-6 | 4-7-1 | 5-5 | 6-4 | 19-22-1 |
| 2015 | 4-6 | 4-7 | 6-4 | 4-6 | 18-23 |
| 2014 | 4-6 | 6-4 | 7-6 | 3-7 | 20-23 |
| 2013 | 2-8 | 2-7-1 | 4-7-1 | 5-4-1 | 13-26-3 |
| Total | 24-35 | 23-33-2 | 32-29-1 | 23-32-2 | 102-129-5 |
It appears that only the Colts have pulled their weight in non-divisional play. I have said it once already but it is worth repeating: until the bookies adjust to this trend, we should continue to cash in on it.
The Colts have won 52.5% of their non-division games ATS since 2013. The other 3 teams in the AFC South have combined to win just 41.2% ATS.
For some reason, Vegas keeps treating these teams like winners. Let’s make ‘em pay!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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