This Thursday is Thanksgiving which means we have the pleasure of not 1 but 3 Thursday NFL games.
No one can deny that playing on Thursday is much different than playing on Sunday. Having 3 rest days instead of the usual 6 makes injuries and fatigue a bigger concern. Less time to gameplan means that talent plays a bigger role on the field.
So who gets the advantage? That is the question I set out to answer. Follow along with my research and you just might find an exploitable trend or two that will make you money while munching on turkey and stuffing.
Betting Straight Home Teams
I figured the most logical place to start would be home teams. When you only have 3 off days in between games, having to travel will make the break seem really really short. I think that playing on the road on Thursday games will be quite a disadvantage.
I looked back over data from the past 10 seasons to get a good indication of how home teams perform on Thursdays. After compiling the results, I noticed that there was a sharp change in the trend after 2015. I decided to split the totals into two ranges: from 2009-15 and from 2016-present.
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 7-2-1 | 77.8% | -3.2 | 8-2 | 80% |
| 2017 | 8-5-2 | 61.5% | -0.7 | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| 2016 | 10-7 | 58.8% | -2.1 | 12-5 | 70.6% |
| 2015 | 7-8-1 | 46.7% | -3.1 | 9-7 | 56.2% |
| 2014 | 8-8 | 50% | -3.6 | 9-7 | 56.2% |
| 2013 | 6-10 | 37.5% | -1.2 | 9-7 | 56.2% |
| 2012 | 7-9 | 43.8% | -0.9 | 8-8 | 50% |
| 2011 | 6-4 | 60% | -3.6 | 8-2 | 80% |
| 2010 | 7-3 | 70% | -3.3 | 5-5 | 50% |
| 2009 | 4-4 | 50% | 1.1 | 4-4 | 50% |
| Total | 70-60-4 | 53.8% | -2.1 | 79-55 | 59.0% |
| Since ‘16 | 25-14-3 | 64.1% | -1.9 | 27-15 | 64.3% |
| ‘09 – ’15 | 45-46-1 | 49.5% | -2.2 | 52-40 | 56.5% |
Bettors of home teams in Thursday games would be up over the past 10 seasons, albeit slightly. They would have profited $400, a 2.8% ROI.
This number is slightly misleading because if someone would have started placing bets on Thursday home teams in 2009, they would have been down $560 heading into 2016.
It has been only in the past 3 years that this system has consistently turned profits. In the sports betting world, trends come and trends go. We must learn to strike while the iron is hot, which appears to be right now for Thursday home teams.
Betting Only Home Favorites
I was curious what the data would show if I added an extra filter on my search, now looking at just the favored home teams in Thursday games.
Once again, I totalled up the data since 2009, breaking it up into a pre and post 2016 range. Take a look.
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 6-0-1 | 100% | -5.4 | 7-0 | 100% |
| 2017 | 5-2 | 71.4% | -5.2 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2016 | 7-2 | 77.8% | -6.5 | 9-0 | 100% |
| 2015 | 6-6 | 50% | -5.2 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 7-6 | 53.8% | -5.4 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2013 | 2-6 | 25% | -6.7 | 6-2 | 75% |
| 2012 | 4-5 | 44.4% | -5.6 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 3-3 | 50% | -9.6 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2010 | 5-2 | 71.4% | -6.6 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2009 | 2-2 | 50% | -5.4 | 2-2 | 50% |
| Total | 47-34-1 | 58.0% | -6.0 | 61-21 | 74.4% |
| Since ‘16 | 18-4-1 | 81.8% | -5.8 | 21-2 | 91.3% |
| ‘09 – ’15 | 29-30 | 49.2% | -6.1 | 40-19 | 67.8% |
Bingo! Big numbers!
Over the past 10 seasons, home favorites are winning 58% of their games ATS when playing on Thursdays. Now this is misleading once again, because the bulk of those winnings are coming in the past 3 seasons. But look at those 3 seasons.
Since 2016, Thursday home favorites are winning 81.8% ATS and 91.3% SU!
Let’s check the schedule for Thanksgiving and see if there are any home favorites … ah yes, there are two.
Both the Cowboys and Saints play at home on Thursday and are listed as 7.5 and 13.5-point favorites respectively.
I was way wrong on the Saints last week (like, laughably wrong) so I will not endorse betting one way or the other. Just ask yourself which side you would rather be on: the side that has won 81.8% ATS over the past 3 years or the side that has won only 18.2%?
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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