This is the second installment of the “Betting Thursday Games” series. Last time, I looked at whether playing at home affected your chances of winning Thursday games.
This time, I am going to focus on systems based on the outcome of the team’s last game. There is never a better time to talk Thursday football than Thanksgiving week in which we will be treated to 3 matchups.
I have said many times before that the NFL is a week-to-week league. This means that momentum does not carry over and that each game begins on a clean slate.
In a typical week, teams enjoy 6 days to practice, prepare, and rest. When they play on Thursday, that prep time is cut in half to 3 days. This makes the idea of momentum a bit more plausible.
I want to find some numbers that suggest whether or not trends based on the previous Sunday’s outcome exist. Let’s dig in.
Betting Thursday Teams After a Loss
I thought it sounded logical that teams who just lost on Sunday might be a little extra fired up to avenge that loss on Thursday.
I looked at the numbers over the past 10 seasons for teams playing on Thursday who lost their previous game SU. Here is what I found.
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 1.9 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2017 | 7-5-2 | 58.3% | -1.2 | 9-5 | 64.3% |
| 2016 | 10-9 | 52.6% | 0.1 | 10-9 | 52.6% |
| 2015 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 1.5 | 6-6 | 50% |
| 2014 | 7-7 | 50% | 1.3 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2013 | 8-7 | 53.3% | 1.4 | 6-9 | 40% |
| 2012 | 8-6 | 57.1% | 1.8 | 7-7 | 50% |
| 2011 | 4-4 | 50% | -1.2 | 3-5 | 37.5% |
| 2010 | 3-4 | 42.9% | -1.1 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2009 | 3-3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3-3 | 50% |
| Total | 60-57-4 | 51.3% | 0.7 | 58-63 | 47.9% |
These teams have had some winning years but the overall trend indicates this system is -EV. A $100 bettor of each team would be down $270 since 2009. It is not much of a deficit, but it is still a losing system.
I then had the grand idea of seeing whether home field mattered. This changed everything.
Thursday Home Teams After Loss
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 3-2 | 60% | -0.5 | 3-2 | 60% |
| 2017 | 6-3 | 66.7% | -0.6 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2016 | 6-4 | 60% | -2.6 | 7-3 | 70% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50% | -2.2 | 3-1 | 75% |
| 2014 | 6-3 | 66.7% | -1.7 | 6-3 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 4-6 | 40% | 1.4 | 4-6 | 40% |
| 2012 | 5-3 | 62.5% | -0.1 | 5-3 | 62.5% |
| 2011 | 2-1 | 66.7% | -5.3 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 3-2 | 60% | -2.9 | 2-3 | 40% |
| 2009 | 3-1 | 75% | 4.0 | 3-1 | 75% |
| Total | 40-27 | 59.7% | -0.9 | 40-27 | 59.7% |
Playing at home makes all the difference in the world, apparently. Teams coming off a loss find solace in playing in front of their home fans.
Thursday Road Teams After a Loss
On the flip side, teams off a loss continue to spiral downward if forced to play on the road 4 days later.
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 2-4-1 | 33.3% | 3.6 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 2017 | 1-2-2 | 33.3% | -2.3 | 4-1 | 80% |
| 2016 | 4-5 | 44.4% | 3.2 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | 3.4 | 3-5 | 37.5% |
| 2014 | 1-4 | 20% | 6.7 | 0-5 | 0% |
| 2013 | 4-1 | 80% | 1.5 | 2-3 | 40% |
| 2012 | 3-3 | 50% | 4.3 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 2-3 | 40% | 1.2 | 1-4 | 20% |
| 2010 | 0-2 | 0% | 3.2 | 1-1 | 50% |
| 2009 | 0-2 | 0% | -3.5 | 0-2 | 0% |
| Total | 20-30-4 | 40% | 2.6 | 18-36 | 33.3% |
After looking at these numbers, I thought to myself, “why am I writing this article now?”. It is because there are 3 big matchups this Thursday on account of Thanksgiving.
All three of the home teams in Thursday’s games are coming off wins, so post-loss trends are not relevant this week.
Instead, I decided to look at what happens when home teams are coming off an ATS win. It was nothing special for the first several seasons of my range but that sure changed in 2016. I split the totals into two ranges to illustrate this drastic difference.
Thursday Home Teams After Winning ATS
| Year | ATS | ATS % | Line | SU | SU % |
| 2018 | 6-1-1 | 85.7% | -4.1 | 7-1 | 87.5% |
| 2017 | 3-1-1 | 75% | 0.2 | 2-3 | 40% |
| 2016 | 6-3 | 66.7% | -0.7 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2015 | 4-5-1 | 44.4% | -3.0 | 5-5 | 50% |
| 2014 | 4-5 | 44.4% | -3.1 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2013 | 3-3 | 50% | -3.6 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2012 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 0.6 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2011 | 3-2 | 60% | -1.9 | 4-1 | 80% |
| 2010 | 2-1 | 66.7% | -2.7 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50% | 3.5 | 1-1 | 50% |
| Total | 34-26-3 | 56.7% | -2.0 | 39-24 | 61.9% |
| Since ‘16 | 15-5-2 | 75% | -1.7 | 16-6 | 72.7% |
| ‘09 – ‘15 | 19-21-1 | 47.5% | -2.1 | 23-18 | 56.1% |
The Lions, Cowboys, and Saints each won ATS last week and now play at home on Thursday. Such teams have won 75% ATS and 72.7% SU over the past 3 seasons. Ask yourself which side of the trend you would like to be on.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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