I Asked a Sportsbook if AAF Futures Bets Would Be Returned. They Wouldn’t Say.

It looks like yet another start-up American football league has gone kaput.

In an atmosphere described by journalists on-scene as “chaos,” the coaches, players and managers of 8 clubs had the rug pulled out from under them last Tuesday.

An Ebersol has now been at the forefront of 2 colossal gridiron failures. It was television mogul Dick Ebersol who partnered with Vince McMahon to broadcast the ill-fated 1^st (and, for quite a few years at least, final) season of the XFL. Dick’s son, Charlie, led 2019’s “Alliance of American Football” project along with former Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian.

Polian despises college football and dual-threat quarterbacks, and so was probably responsible in-part for the various weird rules and coaching methods that sometimes made AAF games look dreadfully milquetoast.

But Polian’s and Ebersol’s biggest blunder came during the season. New league owner Tom Dundon promised the pair a massive infusion of cash that temporarily saved players’ paychecks. Dundon was granted sole decision-making rights over the operation in the deal, which he used to shut the entire operation down despite an improving product on the field.

Gamblers might be more disappointed than anyone, save the players. (I omit the coaches, since most were phoning it in with derivative watered-down playbooks, and in the case of Mike Singletary, sometimes appeared to make losing decisions on purpose.) The AAF was partially designed for cash wagering, and the games moved at a brisk clip. It’s a big bummer that things ground to a halt just as players were finding their legs.

I decided to ask a sportsbook (the identity of which I will keep secret) what will happen to the AAF “futures” bets placed before or during the season.

This is how the conversation went:

“Hi, since the AAF playoffs are no longer scheduled, I was wondering if futures bets on the teams will be returned as pushes?”

“Yes, thank you. When a determination can be made as to the outcome of the league, we will adjust the bets accordingly.”

(Hmm.)

“I’m sorry,” I continued, “but I don’t understand. There can be no outcome since the league has folded. There will not be an AAF champion. Therefore, what is going to happen to the bets? They’re all pushes, right?”

“Yes, thank you. I understand your question. When a determination is made as to the outcome of the league, then the bets will be adjusted.”

Adjusted?

Now I was getting a little hot under the collar.

“Listen, I’m a blogger at several handicapping sites. You’re not giving me a straight answer at all. I don’t think your boss wants to see a headline, Sportsbook Takes Advantage of AAF Fold to Keep Entire Preseason Handle. Are you really telling me that could happen?”

“I am not allowed to say more except that there is a good chance the bets will be refunded.”

Now, do I think the book is going to try any funny stuff with the AAF handle? No. Not even while Steve Spurrier is saying that his Orlando Apollos “won” the Alliance (Orlando did finish with the best record). I have a small stake on the site myself and they’ve always done right by me. I trust the bookmakers…to a point.

But the idea of a sportsbook claiming to “determine an outcome” (in future-tense!) for a league that is already out-of-business brings up an important point.

Bookies make the rules, and many “cut and dry” sports betting markets are open to interpretation and debate as to what they actually offer.

For instance, probably the worst online prop-betting market on the Robert Mueller investigation asked gamblers to predict whether activist Roger Stone would “flip” on the POTUS. Except “flip” is not actually a legal term. It’s a slang term for a person in legal jeopardy choosing to testify in a damaging way against an associate or employer. What if Stone agreed to some kind of contentious plea deal, then somehow avoided incriminating the White House in his testimony?

There are all different kinds of plea deals, and plenty of grey area between “loyal” and “flip.” That means the sportsbook could potentially harangue bettors out of a positive outcome later on by arguing that the outcome did not happen.

If a sportsbook did decide to keep the entire Alliance of American Football futures handle, it could simply claim that since there was never a title scrum, the bets are all losses. After all, we weren’t betting on AAF teams to win a championship “unless the league ends first” but touting a victory in the final playoff game. If it was a “Yes/No” prop-style market on each team to win the title, every bet would technically be a loser, since nobody can win it now.

Thankfully there’s a saving grace. No online betting site is a monopoly – not only do the websites have to compete with each other, but they’ve got to convince more and more gamblers in places like Nevada and New Jersey to skip the romance and flair of wagering in person and place their bets on the internet. The sites depend on their reputations and are unlikely to make a legalistic ruling that screws over clients whose picks cannot win or lose.

Some bookies try to plan ahead for such “no outcome” eventualities and allude to possible weird scenarios in their rules…buried deep within the fine print, of course.

The moral? Ask questions about any futures bet or prop bet that seems to involve a potential grey area. When betting on an experimental new league or promotion that may or may not make it to the finish line, chat with a site representative to make sure there’s a definitive plan in place in case the organization doesn’t make it and the competition stops in mid-flow.

After all, if sportsbooks are stuck for contingency plans, the least the gambler can do is a little careful auditing to find out ahead of time.

It’s kind of like playing Dungeons & Dragons. Look behind you and both ways before allowing the dice to roll.

Otherwise, you might get turned into a tree stump…or at least wind up feeling like a sap.