At UFC 242 last weekend, Khabib Nurmagomedov helped readers of WagerBop to a decent profit by submitting Dustin Poirier in the third round, exactly as we predicted.
This weekend, our attention turns to the upcoming fight card in Vancouver and the main event bout between Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje.
In this article, we’ll share the UFC Vancouver betting odds before breaking down Cerrone vs. Gaethje.
Let’s get started!
UFC Vancouver Best Odds
Main Card
- Donald Cerrone (+165) vs. Justin Gaethje (-190)
- Glover Teixeira (-115) vs. Nikita Krylov (-105)
- Jeff Hughes (-125) vs. Todd Duffee (+105)
- Antonio Carlos Junior (-250) vs. Uriah Hall (+210)
- Michel Pereira (-550) vs. Tristan Connelly (+400)
- Jim Crute (-105) vs. Misha Cirkunov (-115)
Prelims
- Augusto Sakai (+100) vs. Marcin Tybura (-120)
- Cole Smith (+110) vs. Miles Johns (-130)
- Andrew Sanchez (+240) vs. Marvin Vettori (-280)
- Brad Katona (-165) vs. Hunter Azure (+145)
- Chas Skelly (+120) vs. Jordan Griffin (-140)
- Louis Smolka (-235) vs. Ryan MacDonald (+195)
- Austin Hubbard (-135) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+115)
Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje
There’s a lot on the line for both Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje this weekend in Vancouver.
Donald Cerrone has put himself in position for high-profile fights such as this one against Justin Gaethje time and time again. Since returning to lightweight in January, Cerrone managed to work past Alexander Hernandez and then Al Iaquinta to earn himself a shot against one of the very best in the division, Tony Ferguson.
At the end of two rounds, the doctor called off the fight after Cerrone blew his already broken nose, an act that resulted in an incredibly swollen eye. Regardless of how the fight officially ended, Cerrone was getting worked over by Ferguson and was likely on his way to a stoppage defeat anyhow.
That win over Ferguson could have put him in the running for a ‘money fight’ with Conor McGregor in the near future. A win over Justin Gaethje in Vancouver could also do just that.
Justin Gaethje is now on his first-ever winning streak in the UFC. Since joining the promotion in 2017 and being touted as one of the most notable signings in recent years, Gaethje proceeded to lose two of his first three bouts. Defeats to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier indicated, at the time, that maybe Gaethje wasn’t going to be able to reach the top of the lightweight division in the UFC.
However, bounce-back wins against James Vick and Edson Barboza have proven that he belongs somewhere near the top of the 155-pound category and a victory against “Cowboy” will likely throw him into the mix for the McGregor sweepstakes or a future title shot following Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson.
Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje Odds
Fight Breakdown
In many ways, this fight between Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje should be relatively simple to predict.
When he’s given time and space to operate, “Cowboy” can be one of the most dangerous fighters in the lightweight division. With accurate and well-timed combinations of strikes mixed to the head, body, and legs, a Cerrone on the front-foot is to be feared.
However, Cerrone’s prior struggles against talented pressure fighters are well documented. Fighters who have been able to force Cerrone backward have experienced tremendous success. The greatest example of forward pressure against Cerrone is arguably Darren Till’s beatdown of “Cowboy” at UFC Fight Night 118. Till simply walked forward and unloaded plenty of unanswered shots until Cerrone crumbled.
Understanding his weaknesses, Cerrone has improved his ability to defend against an offensive onslaught and forward pressure over the last few years. Against Hernandez, Cerrone punished the younger fighter with devastating knees to the midsection every time Hernandez tried to close the distance. Gaethje will need to be wary of Cerrone’s intercepting knee as he attempts to close the distance.
And if you’re wondering whether Gaethje will close the distance against Cerrone, then chances are that you have never seen the former WSOF champion fight before. All Gaethje does is move forward and he executes his game plan very well.
Gaethje is an expert cage-cutter (unlike most fighters in mixed martial arts) and best displayed his craftsmanship in the famous knockout of James Vick. Gaethje perfectly cut both escape routes from Vick against the cage before punishing him with a left and right hand to finish the fight.
At his best, Gaethje will suck away all of the distance between him and the opposing fighter. He will march forward with his hands held high to deflect incoming punches to the head while also ripping away at the legs of the opponent with his destructive leg kicks.
Gaethje is certainly vulnerable to the body and that’s likely to be an area that Cerrone looks to exploit in Vancouver, but for everybody kick that and body punch that Gaethje eats, that’s just another chance for him to take that one step forward and turn this into a brawl.
The sooner that Gaethje turns this fight into a brawl, the sooner his hand will be raised.
We’re predicting an early stoppage win for Gaethje.
Bet on Total Rounds, Under 1.5: +150 at William Hill
Read More:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
- The 5 Most Shocking Upsets in UFC Title Fight History
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
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