Ultimate 2019-20 NFL Playoffs Betting Guide

It’s back! The best gift ever – NFL betting trends while you’re home for Christmas.

These aren’t just any trends. This is my annual NFL Playoffs Betting Guide.

This is the most comprehensive NFL Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. Trust me, you will not find all of this information in one place anywhere else. I know because I checked.

Playoff pigskin is a different beast. It is imperative we make informed decisions. To better help you understand where I got certain numbers, please be aware of the following:

First, all of my data searches were over the past 10 postseasons, which would take us back to the 2009-10 season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.

Second, all of my ATS numbers exclude pushes. This explains why sometimes the total number of games is different when comparing ATS and SU numbers.

Third, on several occasions throughout this guide I make a side note where I further explain a concept or clarify potential confusion. The side notes are written in italics, like this.

Let’s get after it!

Checking for Home-Field Advantage in the NFL Playoffs

If I entered a room full of NFL bettors and asked the question, “Does home field matter in the playoffs?,” I would hear a lot of yeses. It has to matter, right?

As I said earlier, it is important we always make informed decisions when wagering our hard-earned money. Let’s check the numbers and derive a real answer.

Home Teams ATS and SU

I’ll start by exploring home winning percentages in the NFL playoffs. This first table shows the ATS and SU win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 seasons.

The Super Bowl is a neutral site game and does not count as home or away. This means there have been 10 true home games in each postseason since the 6-team per conference NFL playoff format was adopted in 1990.

Postseason	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2018-19	33.3%	50%	-4.3
2017-18	33.3%	70%	-5.6
2016-17	80%	80%	-7.0
2015-16	60%	60%	-1.4
2014-15	40%	80%	-6.7
2013-14	37.5%	60%	-3.9
2012-13	50%	60%	-4.7
2011-12	60%	80%	-4.3
2010-11	40%	40%	-1.7
2009-10	60%	70%	-4.5
Total	50%	65%	-4.4

50% ATS is below our 52.4% break-even point for spreads. That winning percentage is not profitable.

65% SU is also not profitable. If we use our formula, we find that to break even at -4.4 we would need to win approximately 68-69% of our moneyline bets.

Both the spread and moneyline have been -EV for home playoff teams over the past 10 years. These numbers fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year, so this is not a stand-alone trend we can profit from. These winning percentages for home teams put us in “no man’s land,” meaning that neither side is profitable. This is backed up by researching how road teams have fared over this same span.

Road Teams ATS and SU

Postseason	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2018-19	66.7%	50%	+4.3
2017-18	66.7%	30%	+5.6
2016-17	20%	20%	+7.0
2015-16	40%	40%	+1.4
2014-15	60%	20%	+6.7
2013-14	62.5%	40%	+3.9
2012-13	50%	40%	+4.7
2011-12	40%	20%	+4.3
2010-11	60%	60%	+1.7
2009-10	40%	30%	+4.5
Total	50%	35%	+4.4

If 50% ATS was not profitable for home teams, it will not be profitable for the visitors, either. With an average spread of +4.4, bettors would need to hit between 37-38% of their moneyline bets to break even. The road teams’ 35% SU mark falls short.

Those of you paying close attention realized that the average lines for home and road teams are opposites: +4.4 and -4.4. We would then expect that their break-even percentages for moneyline bets would add to 100%, right? But they don’t. They actually add to somewhere between 105-107%. How can this be?

The answer is the “juice” or “vig” that sportsbooks charge. The juice/vig is a commission, usually 10%, that is built into the betting odds. This is why most point spreads are -110 odds. Because the books charge juice, the percentage needed to break-even for either side is slightly higher than what it would be without juice, hence the cumulative percentage over 100%.

So far we have determined there is no advantage to be held from betting teams solely based on the location of the game. Vegas seems to nail this aspect of handicapping. Next, let’s look at the success of favored teams versus that of underdogs.

NFL Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs

This first table displays how favorites have fared both ATS and SU over the past 10 NFL postseasons.

Postseason	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2018-19	40%	54.5%	-4.1
2017-18	10%	45.5%	-6.5
2016-17	81.8%	81.8%	-6.7
2015-16	36.4%	72.7%	-4.0
2014-15	45.5%	81.8%	-6.2
2013-14	44.4%	72.7%	-4.5
2012-13	63.6%	72.7%	-5.8
2011-12	36.4%	54.5%	-6.4
2010-11	54.5%	54.5%	-4.8
2009-10	45.5%	54.5%	-4.8
Total	46.2%	64.5%	-5.4

Two things stand out at me here. First, those percentages in the “Total” row seem pretty low. We already know that 46.2% on spreads is terrible, but we need to pull out the formula to check 64.2% on -5.4 lines. Turns out that bettors need to hit at 73-74% to break even at -5.4, so 64.2% is terrible as well.

The second observation I made from this table is the fluctuation over the past 2 postseasons. The win rates were relatively steady from 2008-15 but then jumped from one extreme to the other in 2016 and 2017. Is this a classic case of overcorrection by Vegas or is it a sign of changing times in the NFL? I will definitely keep an eye on these numbers moving forward.

Because favorites have performed poorly, we can expect the numbers to look favorable for underdogs over that same timespan.

Underdogs ATS and SU

This table shows the ATS and SU records for underdogs over the past 10 seasons, along with their average lines.

Postseason	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2018-19	60%	45.5%	+4.1
2017-18	90.0%	54.5%	+6.5
2016-17	18.2%	18.2%	+6.7
2015-16	63.6%	27.3%	+4.0
2014-15	54.5%	18.2%	+6.2
2013-14	55.6%	27.3%	+4.5
2012-13	36.4%	27.3%	+5.8
2011-12	63.6%	45.5%	+6.4
2010-11	45.5%	45.5%	+4.8
2009-10	54.5%	45.5%	+4.8
Total	53.8%	35.5%	+5.4

53.8% ATS is not setting the world on fire, but it is a profitable winning percentage. Likewise, bettors on games with an average line of +5.4 would need to hit between 32-33% of their moneyline bets to break even, meaning that 35.5% is also a profitable winning percentage.

The year-to-year fluctuation I mentioned above bothers me a tad, but it is nice to know that betting underdogs both ATS and SU creates a great foundation when betting the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoffs: Betting Home Underdogs

When we looked at home vs road, they were pretty even. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were better. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home/road and fave/dog filters.

There are just a couple of games (if any) per postseason in which the home team is the dog. This is because the higher seed, who is normally the better team, gets to play at home for most of the playoffs.

Because we are working with a small sample size, I will use records for this table instead of percentages.

Postseason	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
2018-19	—	—	—
2017-18	2-0	2-0	+2.8
2016-17	—	—	—
2015-16	3-1	1-3	+3.2
2014-15	—	—	—
2013-14	0-1	0-2	+2.2
2012-13	0-2	0-2	+3.2
2011-12	2-0	2-0	+6.0
2010-11	1-2	1-2	+5.5
2009-10	1-0	1-0	+1.0
Total	9-6 (60%)	7-9 (43.8%)	+3.7

These ATS and SU records for home dogs are both highly profitable! At 9-6 ATS since 2009, bettors would be treated to an astonishing 14.5% ROI on spread bets. At 7-9 SU with an average line of +3.7, bettors would have a spectacular 11.6% ROI on the moneyline.

Not only are home dogs profitable over the past 10 years, but they are extremely hot over the past 4 years, posting a 5-1 record ATS and a 2-3 record SU with an average line of +3.1. Too bad there are not more of these opportunities.

It should go without saying, but since home dogs are great bets, road favorites should be faded.

NFL Playoffs: Betting the Over/Under Point Total

Spreads and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff football. The point total can also be a lucrative bet. The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the spread/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which many claim to be easier to predict than winners and losers

The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 NFL postseasons.

Postseason	Over %	Under %
2018-19	36.4%	63.6%
2017-18	54.5%	45.5%
2016-17	72.7%	27.3%
2015-16	36.4%	63.6%
2014-15	54.5%	45.5%
2013-14	30%	70%
2012-13	54.5%	45.5%
2011-12	54.5%	45.5%
2010-11	63.6%	36.4%
2009-10	63.6%	36.4%
Total	52.3%	47.7%

There is no advantage to be gained just from betting the total. Each side is below the magic number of 52.4%.

NFL Playoffs: ATS and SU Records by Number of Wins

I got curious. I was wondering whether the amount of wins a team had coming into a postseason game affected their odds of either covering the spread or winning SU. This table breaks down both the ATS and SU win percentages for teams based on their number of wins.

Note that “# of Wins” means ALL wins – regular season and playoffs. For example, if a team finishes 9-7 and then wins in Wild Card Weekend, that win would count toward the “9 win” category. They would then have 10 wins and would contribute to the “10 win” category in their Divisional Round game, and so on.

# of Wins	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
7	2-0 (100%)	2-0 (100%)	+2.2
8	1-2 (33.3%)	1-3 (25%)	+8.5
9	8-5 (61.5%)	7-6 (53.8%)	+4.3
10	14-21 (40%)	16-21 (43.2%)	+1.8
11	24-18 (57.1%)	19-25 (43.2%)	+0.9
12	23-17 (57.5%)	25-17 (59.5%)	-0.8
13	18-23 (43.9%)	21-21 (50%)	-2.0
14	8-13 (38.1%)	11-10 (52.4%)	-2.2
15	6-5 (54.5%)	6-5 (54.5%)	-1.8
16	2-1 (66.7%)	2-1 (66.7%)	-3.8
17	0-1 (0%)	0-1 (0%)	-4.5
Totals
7-10	25-28 (47.2%)	26-30 (46.4%)	+2.9
11-12	47-35 (57.3%)	44-42 (51.2%)	+0.1
13+	34-43 (44.2%)	40-38 (51.3%)	-2.1

11 and 12-win teams have been cash money over the past 10 postseasons while all others have been inconsistent, at best. 11 and 12-win teams have a large sample size, so I really trust this data.

Although 7-win playoff teams seem like a slam dunk with a 100% winning percentage, you need to remember that their record is just 2-0. Likewise, there was only one 17-win team in our sample, the 2015 Panthers, who lost in the Super Bowl to the Broncos’ defense. Two years before our sample, in the 2007 season, the 18-win Patriots also lost ATS and SU in the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoffs: Team-By-Team Records

Some NFL teams just have a knack for winning playoff football games while others whither in the limelight. I want to distinguish these teams from one another.

This table contains data for each NFL team that is still playoff eligible following Week 15. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ATS and SU playoff records since the 2014-15 season. I decided to only go back 5 postseasons on this one because if we go back too far, the rosters are totally different and any relevance to today’s players is lost.

The Patriots have played 14 playoff games over the past 5 years while the 49’ers and Browns are the only 2 potential 2019 playoff teams without playoff appearances in the past 5 seasons.

Team	# of Games	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
Patriots	14	10-4 (71.4%)	12-2 (85.7%)	-5.6
Seahawks	8	2-5 (28.6%)	4-4 (50%)	-2.8
Steelers	7	3-4 (42.9%)	3-4 (42.9%)	-1.2
Packers	7	5-2 (71.4%)	4-3 (57.1%)	+2.3
Chiefs	6	2-4 (33.3%)	2-4 (33.3%)	-2.7
Colts	5	3-2 (60%)	3-2 (60%)	+3.7
Cowboys	5	1-3 (25%)	2-3 (40%)	-0.2
Eagles	5	5-0 (100%)	4-1 (80%)	+4.6
Rams	4	2-2 (50%)	2-2 (50%)	-1.8
Saints	4	0-3 (0%)	2-2 (50%)	-3.1
Texans	4	1-3 (25%)	1-3 (25%)	+3.5
Ravens	3	2-1 (66.7%)	1-2 (33.3%)	+2.5
Vikings	3	1-1 (50%)	1-2 (33.3%)	-1.2
Titans	2	1-1 (50%)	1-1 (50%)	+10.8
Raiders	1	0-1 (0%)	0-1 (0%)	+4.0
Bills	1	1-0 (100%)	0-1 (0%)	+8.5
49’ers	0	—	—	—
Browns	0	—	—	—

There is plenty to look at in this table. I’ll highlight a few quick points:

• The Patriots play exceptionally well in the postseason
• The Chiefs, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Saints seem to fall flat each postseason
• The Colts and Packers have been good playoff bets since 2014
• The Eagles’ great records are fueled by their recent SB run

NFL Playoffs: Team-By-Team HOME Records

I wanted to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason. In the previous table, I only went back 5 years because I needed the core of the team to remain the same. For this table, I used my default 10-year span because a home-field advantage is not something that will come and go quickly.

Team	# of Games	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
Patriots	15	9-6 (60%)	12-3 (80%)	-8.4
Saints	6	2-4 (33.3%)	5-1 (71.4%)	-6.4
Seahawks	6	4-2 (66.7%)	6-0 (100%)	-5.2
Colts	5	3-1 (75%)	4-1 (80%)	-4.4
Chiefs	5	1-4 (20%)	1-4 (20%)	-3.1
Steelers	5	3-2 (60%)	3-2 (60%)	-5.8
Texans	5	3-2 (60%)	3-2 (60%)	-2.1
Packers	5	2-2 (50%)	3-2 (60%)	-5.1
Cowboys	4	1-2 (33.3%)	3-1 (75%)	-4.4
Eagles	4	2-2 (50%)	2-2 (50%)	+0.1
Vikings	3	2-0 (100%)	2-1 (66.7%)	-1.2
49’ers	3	2-1 (66.7%)	2-1 (66.7%)	-0.5
Ravens	3	1-2 (33.3%)	2-1 (66.7%)	-5.7
Rams	2	1-1 (50%)	1-1 (50%)	-6.2
Titans	0	—	—	—
Bills	0	—	—	—
Browns	0	—	—	—
Raiders	0	—	—	—

The Seahawks have not lost a home playoff game in the past decade. This is exactly what I meant when I said certain teams were deadly at home.

Here are each team’s recent road playoff numbers as well, again since 2009.

Team	# of Games	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
Packers	10	7-3 (70%)	5-5 (50%)	+3.0
Ravens	9	7-2 (77.8%)	5-4 (55.6%)	+4.9
Seahawks	7	2-4 (33.3%)	2-5 (28.6%)	+2.2
Colts	6	2-4 (33.3%)	2-4 (33.3%)	+6.1
Saints	5	2-2 (50%)	1-4 (20%)	+0.5
Steelers	5	2-3 (40%)	2-3 (40%)	+0.9
49’ers	4	2-1 (66.7%)	3-1 (75%)	-1.0
Chiefs	3	1-1 (50%)	1-2 (33.3%)	+1.2
Cowboys	3	1-2 (33.3%)	0-3 (0%)	+5.2
Eagles	3	2-1 (66.7%)	1-2 (33.3%)	+5.8
Patriots	3	1-2 (33.3%)	1-2 (33.3%)	+1.7
Texans	3	1-2 (33.3%)	0-3 (0%)	+11.0
Vikings	3	1-2 (33.3%)	0-3 (0%)	+3.5
Titans	2	1-1 (50%)	1-1 (50%)	+10.8
Bills	1	1-0 (100%)	0-1 (0%)	+8.5
Raiders	1	0-1 (0%)	0-1 (0%)	+4.0
Rams	1	1-0 (100%)	1-0 (100%)	+3.0
Browns	0	—	—	—

The Packers, Ravens, and 49’ers have both killed it on the road this past decade. Every other team is very mortal when playing on enemy turf – even the Seahawks and Patriots.

NFL Playoffs: Coach-by-Coach Playoff Records

Certain coaches seem to push all the right buttons in big games while others bumble their way to disappointing losses. This table will help determine which of those 2 categories each of the 18 possible playoff coaches fall into

Shown below are each coach’s ATS and SU postseason records, the average line in those games, the total number of playoff games they have coached, and the number of Super Bowls they have won in their head coaching career.

Team	Coach	SB Wins	# of Games	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
Patriots	Belichick	6*	42*	21-18 (53.8%)	31-11 (73.8%)*	-4.7
Chiefs	Reid	0	26	12-11 (52.2%)	12-14 (46.2%)	-1.5
Seahawks	Carroll	1	18	7-7 (50%)	10-8 (55.6%)	-0.9
Ravens	Harbaugh	1	16	11-5 (68.8%)	10-6 (62.5%)	+2.3
Steelers	Tomlin	1	15	7-7 (50%)	8-7 (53.3%)	-2.6
Saints	Payton	1	14	5-8 (38.5%)	8-6 (57.1%)	-2.4
Raiders	Gruden	1	9	4-2 (66.7%)	5-4 (55.6%)	-0.7
Eagles	Pederson	1	5	5-0 (100%)	4-1 (80%)	+4.6
Cowboys	Garrett	0	5	1-3 (25%)	2-3 (40%)	-2.0
Texans	O’Brien	0	4	1-3 (25%)	1-3 (25%)	+3.5
Vikings	Zimmer	0	3	1-1 (50%)	1-2 (33.3%)	-1.2
Rams	McVay	0	4	2-2 (50%)	2-2 (50%)	-1.8
Colts	Reich	0	2	1-1 (50%)	1-1 (50%)	+3.2
Bills	McDermott	0	1	0-1 (0%)	0-1 (0%)	+3.5
Titans	Vrabel	0	0	—	—	—
49’ers	Shanahan	0	0	—	—	—
Packers	LaFleur	0	0	—	—	—
Browns	Kitchens	0	0	—	—	—

* Bill Belichick is the all-time NFL coaching leader in Super Bowl wins, postseason wins, and postseason games coached

Like I was saying earlier, some guys have it and some don’t. Andy Reid has been a very mediocre playoff coach. Meanwhile, he has to watch guys like Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh make it look easy.

I am excited to see some first-year playoff coaches in action next month. Odds will likely be favorable for these newbies as few expect new coaches to succeed.

NFL Playoffs: Winning Percentage by Seed

If you remember all the way back to the favorite vs underdog section, you should already know what to expect here. The underdog is almost always the lower seed, and we already established that underdogs have been profitable both ATS and SU over the past 10 postseasons.

We can safely assume that the lower seeds have performed better over this span, but it nice to be able to quantify it.

In lieu of a traditional bracket style tournament the NFL reseeds after each round. This means the highest remaining seed next plays the lowest remaining seed, the second-highest plays the second-lowest, and so on. When I gathered the numbers for this table, I kept the seeds constant round-by-round. This means if you started the postseason as the #4 seed, each game played would count toward the stats for the #4 seeds.

Seed	# of Games	ATS Record (%)	SU Record (%)
1	47	23-24 (48.9%)	33-14 (70.2%)
2	40	20-20 (50%)	20-20 (50%)
3	31	14-17 (45.2%)	11-20 (35.5%)
4	38	19-18 (51.4%)	20-18 (52.6%)
5	30	13-16 (44.8%)	10-20 (33.3%)
6	34	20-14 (58.8%)	16-18 (47.1%)

Consistent with our favorite/underdog study, 1-3 seeds are not good bets while 4 and 6 seeds are. It is strange that 5-seeds do not share the success that 4 and 6-seeds have enjoyed. I do not have a good explanation for this.

The 1-seeds from each conference have played each other in the Super Bowl 5 times since 2008 (the only seed to play themselves in that span). Obviously, this will yield a 1-1 ATS record each time. If we remove these matchups, the true ATS for 1-seeds against all other seeds is 48.6%, which is slightly worse.

NFL Playoffs: The Effect of the First-Round Bye

The first-round bye week. What is supposed to be a major advantage granted to the conferences’ top teams is often blamed for a flat showing in the Divisional Round. Let’s finally settle the question: are those 1 and 2-seeds coming off a first-round bye during Wild Card Weekend good bets?

Postseason	ATS Record	SU Record	Avg Line
2018-19	3-1	4-0	-6.5
2017-18	2-1	3-1	-5.8
2016-17	2-2	2-2	-7.2
2015-16	2-2	4-0	-5.6
2014-15	1-3	3-1	-8.4
2013-14	1-3	3-1	-5.8
2012-13	2-2	3-1	-6.0
2011-12	2-2	3-1	-6.2
2010-11	2-2	2-2	-6.1
2009-10	3-1	3-1	-6.1
Total	20-19 (51.3%)	30-10 (75%)	-6.4

It turns out teams off a first-round bye are not good bets. An ATS winning percentage of 51.3% means that neither side is profitable ATS.

With an average line of -6.4, you would need to win about 75-76% of your moneyline bets to break even. 75% is right there, but not a high enough rate to generate substantial profits.

NFL Playoffs: Summary

Here is a bullet point rundown of the NFL playoff betting tips we learned today:

• There is no advantage to be found based on home/away
• Underdogs are more profitable to bet than favorites, both ATS and SU
• Home underdogs do not appear often but are +EV
• There is no advantage to be found betting the total
• Teams with 11 and 12 total wins are great bets, both ATS and SU
• The Patriots, Packers, and Eagles have been great playoff football teams
• The Chiefs, Saints, and Cowboys have been terrible playoff football teams
• The Seahawks have not lost a playoff game at home since 2005
• The Ravens excel in road playoff games – 7-2 ATS in the past decade
• Bill Belichick is tough to beat in the postseason (understatement)
• 4-seeds and 6-seeds have raked in huge profits both ATS and SU over the past decade
• Fade teams following a first-round bye

Save this information so you can easily refer back to it. You will definitely be a more complete and knowledgeable NFL playoffs bettor because of it. I’ll see you on the top.