Are Two Touchdown Favorites Worth The Risk?

In week three of the 2018 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are the biggest underdogs of the week, coming into their game against the Minnesota Vikings as 16-point underdogs. Given how much they’ve struggled and how well the Vikings have played, a big line was expected, but 16 points might be too many for some bettors to lay. A quick look at what the numbers say about backing huge favorites in the NFL could shed some light on why.

A few seasons ago, Deadspin did some number crunching on favorites of 12 points or more in NFL games. They found that from 1978 to 2013 that those gigantic favorites covered at a rate of about 44%. That would mean that blindly betting on underdogs of 12 points or more would have yielded a very profitable 56% hit rate against the spread over that same time period, a percentage that most bettors would do unspeakable things to reach.

However, it is worth remembering that bettors should evaluate all of these games on a case-by-case basis, rather than blindly backing a number without context. After all, the Cleveland Browns have regularly been abysmal against the spread even as a huge underdog most of the time due to their lack of a single victory since late into the 2016 season. But the Browns also managed to cover as a double-digit underdog in week two against the Saints in New Orleans. There are always exceptions to every perceived rule in NFL betting, and bettors are doing themselves a disservice if they ever forget that.

Last season, for example, was an exception to the rule that two-touchdown favorites should be avoided. There were five games involving underdogs of 14 points or more last season. During those five games, the favorites went 3-2 against the spread, including a 2-1 mark by those favorites against a Jets team that everyone expected to be horrific heading into the 2017 season. While long-term data suggests that betting the underdog in those five games was the way to go, individually analyzing those games showed that there is some nuance to all of this in every game, every year.

The 2016 season was an even more pronounced instance of two-touchdown favorites being a good bet at times. In that season, two-touchdown or more favorites went 3-0 against the spread, making for a two-year record of 6-2 against the number for those mega-favorites.

Focusing specifically on the matchup between the Bills and Vikings, the game does have the potential to be a bloodbath if the Vikings can apply pressure to rookie quarterback Josh Allen in just his second career start. The Vikings defense already got the better of Jimmy Garoppolo at home this season, and it would be no surprise to see them do the same to Allen here to the tune of a blowout win. But if you do not feel confident in laying 16 points in the NFL, that would be understandable as well. You may be better served keeping an eye out for an advantageous Bills second half line instead.