State of the Cleveland Browns

I have written more about the Browns than any other team this year. What is it about them that fascinates me?

It all began when the over/under win totals for the 2018 NFL season came out and the Browns were listed at 5.5. You would have to be quite bold to put money on an 0-16 team to improve to 6-10 the following year under the same coaching staff!

I wrote a big, long piece on why the Browns will continue to suck this year and why they will only win 4 or 5 games. They actually won a game sooner than I expected as they knocked off the Jets in Week 3. I had this upcoming week, Week 5, slated to be their first W.

So that begs the question, do I still think the Browns will win this week? The answer is yes. I am taking the 2.5 points at home against the Ravens with Baker Mayfield under center.

Difficult Stretch for the Baltimore Ravens

On Sunday night, the Dirty Birds went into Pittsburgh for a tough, divisional matchup. Harbaugh and his boys knew it was going to be a battle from start to finish.

The tied score at half-time was not unexpected. The Ravens dominating the second-half and winning by 12 points certainly was.

Now the Ravens must head into Cleveland for their second-straight road divisional game. To make matters worse, the players might be looking ahead to the following week in which they head to Nashville for a third-straight road game.

You know me – I don’t like betting on hunches. Let’s look at some numbers.

The following table shows how teams in the middle of a three-game road stretch have fared ATS over the past 3 seasons.

Year	Record ATS / Win %	Avg Line
2017	4-5 / 44.4%	+0.7
2016	1-2 / 33.3%	+4.5
2015	2-4-1 / 33.3%	+0.6

It is safe to say they have not fared very well. Grant it, there is not a large sample size here, but it is convincing enough for me.

I included the average point-spread because I found it interesting that teams are generally tabbed as underdogs in this situation and yet the Ravens are 2.5-point favorites. This is either extreme confidence in the Ravens or a lapse in judgement by the oddsmakers.

Can the Browns Continue to Force Turnovers?

Who is leading the NFL in takeaways after 4 weeks? That’s right – the Browns. Is this a fluke or is it sustainable? That is the question I aim to answer here.

Big Ben played horribly in Week 1 in the shadow of the Dawg Pound. He looked off all game and threw 3 picks. This helped pad the Browns’ stats immensely.

They have also forced and recovered 6 fumbles – tops in the league. When I look at this team, I see a crew getting lucky breaks early in the season. They preyed on a bad outing from a good quarterback and have been the beneficiary of some fortunate bounces.

At 1-2-1, the Browns record is not impressive unless you realize they are 3-1 ATS and were 0-4 SU at this time last year. They could easily be 0-4 again this year were it not for all of the turnovers they have managed to force.

At some point, the Browns will fail to force turnovers and will lose a game by a wide margin, causing everyone to scratch their heads and wonder what happened. I’ll tell you what happened – they regressed back toward the mean.

Even though I feel this way, I am still picking the Browns to win this one. Why am I banking on a win when I think they have been getting lucky?

It is because there is one team in the NFL right now the Browns can beat without forcing turnovers – the Ravens.

Other than a drubbing of the Bills, the Ravens’ offense has underperformed. Baltimore has only turned it over 5 times, exhibiting they do not need to turn the ball over to struggle offensively.

Do not expect Baker Mayfield to ignite a long winning streak. I believe he can win this one, however, against a Ravens team trying to survive a hellish stretch of their schedule with an offense that has yet to show up.