How Are the Chiefs So Good?

The Chiefs are one those teams that are always competitive but seemingly on nobody’s radar. Playing in small-market Kansas City, it is easy to overlook this club when discussing possible title contenders.

A quick look at the NFL standings reveals that KC is the only 4-0 team in the AFC. They are legit. I will answer two pressing questions about the Chiefs: How did they get to 4-0 and can they be expected to continue rolling?

The Chiefs’ Offense is Dangerous

I’m talking really explosive here, folks. 410 yards per game is good for 8th in the NFL. Kansas City has translated this ability to move the ball into a whopping 36.3 points per game – tops in the league.

This is especially impressive considering their defense has not generated takeaways, managing just 3 in 4 games. The Chiefs are routinely driving the length of the field and putting points up.

It is no surprise that Andy Reid’s offense excels in the red zone. The Chiefs have scored touchdowns 82.4% of the time when they reach the 20 this season – second-highest in the NFL.

Check out the numbers their best playmakers have posted through 4 games.

Name	Pos	Passing Yards	Completion %	Passing TDs
Patrick Mahomes	QB	1200	65.2%	14
Name	Pos	Rushing Yards	YPC	Rushing TDs
Kareem Hunt	RB	289	4.1	3
Name	Pos	Receiving Yards	Receptions	Receiving TDs
Tyreek Hill	WR	364	23	3
Travis Kelce	TE	307	23	3

It all starts with the next-level brilliance on display from 23-year-old phenom Patrick Mahomes. There were concerns in Chiefs camp that this youngster would be too inexperienced to lead a contender.

Mahomes’ play on the field has drowned out the criticism. The Texas Tech product has thrown for 1,200 yards – good for 11th in the league. These next two numbers are the eye popping ones: 14 touchdowns … and 0 picks!

Both of these stats lead the league. Not too shabby for a first-year starter in the stacked AFC West.

The Chiefs Against the Spread

If you were astute enough to realize the Chiefs were tremendously undervalued in the first 3 weeks – congratulations. You made a lot of money.

For those late to the party, it is not the end of the world. We will just have to search harder for our value.

Week	Matchup	Line
1	KC 38 @ LAC 28	KC +3
2	KC 42 @ PIT 37	KC +4.5
3	SF 27 @ KC 38	KC -6.5
4	KC 27 @ DEN 23	KC -4
5	JAX @ KC	KC -3

After grossly undervaluing KC on the road two weeks in a row, oddsmakers wised up and declared them touchdown favorites over the Niners.

The bookies finally got it right in Week 4, accurately predicting a close game in the Chiefs’ favor.

How I Will Bet the Chiefs This Week

I believe the Chiefs are good – even playoff bound. The problem is that as the only 4-0 team in the conference they have targets on their backs and now receive stiff lines from the oddsmakers.

They have two tough games upcoming: hosting the Jags in Week 5 and then visiting Tom Brady and the Patriots the week after.

Could the Chiefs win both of these games? Possibly.

Are the Chiefs likely to win both of these games? No. If we do some math using the Vegas odds (-3 against the Jags and +7 against the Patriots, ignoring the juice), we can calculate that the Chiefs have a 17.8% chance of winning both of these games.

I think that a Martingale might be appropriate here. If we bet the moneyline on the Jags, we know we are getting some decent value. If the Jags lose, we can double our bet on the Patriots moneyline for a good chance of making a net profit.

I got the Jaguars and their league-leading defense +3 this week over KC.