16 teams. A best-of-3 series. 4 bubbles. Masks. Hand sanitizer.
The 2020 MLB Playoffs will feature many firsts. An expanded field, empty stadiums, and neutral site games … to name a few. As long as teams are still trying to win and the Commissioner’s Trophy (or “piece of metal”) gets handed out to the winner – I’m down to watch.
Watching is only half of the fun, though. I’ll also be betting on the games. Each MLB team is good at something. They all have weaknesses, too. Evaluating how these strengths can be employed in combat to expose the opponent’s weakness is the art of handicapping.
There is plenty of money to be made in the MLB postseason. Knowing where to look is crucial. This is where we come in. This 16-team breakdown is a quick look at where teams are strong, where they are weak, and how they stack up against their Wild Card round opponent.
We have a lot to discuss – let’s get after it!
Tampa Bay Rays – 40-20 Overall – 1-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 8-seed Toronto Blue Jays
Biggest Strength: The Rays display great patience at the plate. Their 10.7% BB rate is 4th in the Major Leagues. Walks are as good as extra base hits in Tampa. The Rays stole 48 bases this year – good for 6th in baseball. Tampa also plays excellent defense – ranking 7th in the league in team Def.
Biggest Weakness: Tampa strikes out a lot – the second-most in the Majors at 26.9%. The only team worse is the lowly Tigers who won 23 games.
Matchup History: The Rays sparred 10 times with Toronto this season and took 6 of those matchups. The games were extremely close – the average score being 4.4 to 4.8 in favor of Toronto. 4 of the 10 games were decided by 1 run while 3 others were decided by 2 runs. Each game was within 3 runs, with the exception of 1 – a 12-4 thumping by Toronto.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 43-17 Overall – 1-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 8-seed Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Strength: What can’t this team do. The Dodgers rank 1st in the league in homeruns (118), runs scored (349), and ISO (.227). Pitching-wise, LA ranks first in team ERA (3.02), BB/9 (2.42), and wins (43).
Biggest Weakness: Not much to dislike with this team. They rank 23rd in team Def – which isn’t good – but have only lost about 1.5 games this year because of it. Their ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw is notoriously bad in the postseason. Kershaw could drag the team down if he struggles again this October. If the former-Cy Young winner is on his game, however, the Dodgers have a clear path to the World Series.
Matchup History: The Dodgers and Brewers did not play this year but have had many close games over the past 2 regular seasons. LA has taken 8 of the 14 games – winning 4 of 7 in 2018 and 4 of 7 in 2019. Take away an ugly 21-5 beating and the Dodgers have outscored the Brewers by only 7 runs over their past 14 head-to-head meetings. This series figures to be close.
Oakland Athletics – 36-24 Overall – 2-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 7-seed Chicago White Sox
Biggest Strength: The A’s will not get themselves out – posting the third-best walk rate in the league (10.8%) and the 15th-lowest K rate (23.8%). From the mound, Oakland does not issue free passes. Their 2.88 BB/9 ranks 4th in the Major Leagues. This impeccable command helps Oakland keep their team ERA down. It finished at 3.77 – the 5th-lowest mark in the MLB.
Biggest Weakness: A’s pitchers don’t strike many hitters out. Oakland’s 8.84 K/9 ranks 20th in baseball. Offensively, Oakland doesn’t have much pop. Their 71 homeruns rank 18th in the league while their .171 team ISO ranks 15th.
Matchup History: The A’s are out West and the Sox are in the Central so they did not meet in the 2020 regular season. These clubs have clashed 13 times over the past 2 seasons, however, with Oakland dominating Chicago. The A’s are a solid 10-3 – winning by an average score of 6.7 to 3.5. In their most recent meetings – 6 games in 2019 – Oakland was 5-1 – winning by a cumulative score of 32-8.
Atlanta Braves – 35-25 Overall – 2-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 7-seed Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Strength: The Braves mash. Atlanta ranks 2nd in the league in team ISO (.215), 2nd in homeruns (103), 2nd in runs scored (348), and 1st in RBIs (338). The Braves .268 team batting average is also 2nd in the league while their .349 team OBP ranks 1st. Slugging percentage? Atlanta is tied for 1st in that category with the almighty Dodgers.
Biggest Weakness: The Braves’ pitching is middle of the pack. Their 4.46 team ERA ranks 15th in baseball. They don’t strike many hitters out – ranking 22nd in K/9 with 8.69. Atlanta could work on their control a little. Braves’ pitchers have allowed 3.78 walks per 9, the 19th-best rate in the MLB.
Matchup History: The Braves and Reds did not meet in the 2020 regular season. These clubs have squared off 14 times over the past 2 seasons with the Reds taking 8 of the 14 matchups. On the runline, Atlanta is in very bad shape – dropping 11 of 13. Although the games are close (5 to 4.4), the Braves can’t seem to pull out the Ws against Cincy. Last season, the Reds won 4 of 7 against Atlanta. Each game was within 3 runs.
Minnesota Twins – 36-24 Overall – 3-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 6-seed Houston Astros
Biggest Strength: The Twins pitchers do not issue walks. Minnesota’s 2.98 BB/9 ranks 6th in baseball. Twins pitchers are no stranger to recording Ks – ranking 10th in the MLB in K/9 (9.38). The lack of walks and abundance of strikeouts helps Minnesota keep runs off the board – ranking 4th in baseball with a team ERA of 3.58.
Biggest Weakness: Minnesota does not hit for a high average – ranking 18th in the league in team batting average (.242). Their team OBP is a little worse – .315 – which ranks 20th in baseball. Minnesota’s team slugging percentage is middle of the road. The Twins are slugging .427 as a team – good for 14th in the league.
Matchup History: The Twins and Astros met a grand total of 0 times this year but have faced off 13 times over the past 2 seasons. Houston has won 7 of these 13 games but has a substantial advantage in the runs scored department – winning by an average score of 5.1 to 3.5. Minnesota got the better of Houston in 2019 – winning 4 of 7 matchups. This year’s Astros are not nearly as strong as last year’s – Minnesota is the favorite in this series.
Chicago Cubs – 34-26 Overall – 3-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 6-seed Miami Marlins
Biggest Strength: The Cubs are top-10 in not allowing walks. Northside pitchers rank 8th in the league in BB/9 (3.16). Chicago also slid into the top-10 in team ERA -ranking 10th at 3.99. Bolstered by Javy “El Mago” Baez, the Cubs rank 3rd in team Def.
Biggest Weakness: Chicago does not scare anyone with the sticks. The Cubbies rank 17th in the league in homeruns (74), 27th in the league in batting average (.220), 18th in the league in OBP (.318), 24th in the league in slugging percentage (.387), and 20th in runs scored (265).
Matchup History: Chicago won their weak NL Central division and claimed the 3-seed despite not being a great team. The Fish and Cubbies did not meet in 2020 but have played 14 times since the beginning of the 2018 season. The Cubs have won 11 of these 14 games – dominating by an average score of 6 to 2.9. The 2020 Cubs have not set the world on fire, but boast a much more talented and experienced roster than Miami.
Cleveland Indians – 35-25 Overall – 4-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 5-seed New York Yankees
Biggest Strength: Pitching. The Indians are fueled by their incredible pitching staff. Cleveland’s 10.43 K/9 ranks 3rd in baseball. Their 2.64 BB/9 ranks 2nd as does their 3.29 team ERA.
Biggest Weakness: Hitting. The Indians team batting average is .228 which ranks 23rd in the league. Tribe hitters have sent just 59 balls over the fence – the 3rd-lowest mark in baseball. Total runs scored? The Indians rank 24th with 248 – over 100 runs below the league-leading Dodgers.
Matchup History: The Indians are the Kings of Losing in the First Round. Including playoff games, Cleveland has tangled with New York 16 times since the beginning of the 2018 season – going 6-10. 11 of those 16 games have gone over the total – with New York winning by an average score of 6 to 5.7. The Yankees were a preseason favorite but have plateaued. The Indians look unstoppable some nights and AAA-esque others. This should be a closely contested series.
San Diego Padres – 37-23 Overall – 4-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 5-seed St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest Strength: The Padres have some good pitchers. Their team ERA of 3.87 ranks 7th in baseball. Padres starting pitchers have an even better ERA – 3.46 – the 3rd-lowest in baseball. The Friars 9.77 K/9 is good for 5th in Majors. They don’t allow too many walks, either. SD’s 2.94 BB/9 ranks 5th in the game. Oh yeah, Fernando Tatis Jr. is a strength, too! Not only can the Padres pitch and hit, but their team Def of 7.4 ranks 2nd in all the land.
Biggest Weakness: The Padres don’t draw a ton of walks. Their walk rate of 9.1% ranks 14th in the game. The Friars rely heavily on the longball. This sort of feast or famine approach can lead to some long slumps. Long slumps in October equal series losses.
Matchup History: The Padres have gone from afterthought to national conversation topic in a matter of two years. The Padres and Cardinals didn’t face off in 2020 but have met 13 times since the beginning of the 2018 season. The Padres have won 8 of the 13 games – winning by an average score of 4.1 to 3.3. With scores this low, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the under has hit in 9 of these 13 games. The Padres put the pedal to the floor in 2019 – winning 4 of 6 against St. Louis and outscoring the Cards 30-19.
New York Yankees – 33-27 Overall – 5-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 4-seed Cleveland Indians
Biggest Strength: Yankee Stadium has some short porches and the Pinstripers are loaded with big boppers. Combine these two facts and you see why New York ranks 5th in the league in homeruns (94). These long balls allow the Yankees to score the 4th-most runs in baseball (315) and collect the 4th-most RBIs (301). On-base percentage? Also 4th in the league for the Yankees at .342.
Biggest Weakness: The Yankees don’t hit for a great team average. Their AVG of .247 ranks 14th in the league. New York also doesn’t play great team defense. Their team Def of -8.3 ranks 16th in the Major Leagues.
Matchup History: The Yankees were a preseason favorite to win the World Series but have backed into the 5-seed. Including playoff games, the Yankees have tangled with Cleveland 16 times since the beginning of the 2018 season – going 10-6. 11 of those 16 games have gone over the total – with New York winning by an average score of 6 to 5.7. The Indians look unstoppable some nights and AAA-esque others. On paper, the Yankees have the most talented team in baseball. This should be a closely contested series.
St. Louis Cardinals – 30-28 Overall – 5-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 4-seed San Diego Padres
Biggest Strength: The Cardinals – led by Yadier Molina behind the dish – play excellent team defense. St. Louis ranks 4th in team Def at 7.3.
Biggest Weakness: St. Louis hitters possess almost no pop. The Cards rank dead last in the MLB in team ISO at .137. The Cardinals 51 homeruns are also last in the league. St. Louis rarely steals bases. Their 18 regular season steals rank 4th-lowest in the MLB.
Matchup History: The no-name Cardinals continue to get the job done. The Birds and Friars didn’t face off in 2020 but have met 13 times since the beginning of the 2018 season. The Padres have won 8 of the 13 games – winning by an average score of 4.1 to 3.3. With scores this low, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the under has hit in 9 of these 13 games. The Padres put the pedal to the floor in 2019 – winning 4 of 6 against St. Louis and outscoring the Cards 30-19.
Houston Astros – 29-31 Overall – 6-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 3-seed Minnesota Twins
Biggest Strength: Cheating.
Biggest Weakness: Getting caught cheating.
Matchup History: The Twins and Astros met a grand total of 0 times this year but have faced off 13 times over the past 2 seasons. Houston has won 7 of these 13 games but has a substantial advantage in the runs scored department – winning by an average score of 5.1 to 3.5. Minnesota got the better of Houston in 2019 – winning 4 of 7 matchups. This is scary as this year’s Astros are not nearly as strong as last year’s. Houston has their work cut out for them.
Miami Marlins – 31-29 Overall – 6-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 3-seed Chicago Cubs
Biggest Strength: The Marlins are terrors on the basepaths – stealing 51 bases – good for 2nd in the MLB.
Biggest Weakness: Plate discipline is an issue in South Beach. Miami ranks 16th in walk rate and 22nd in strikeout rate.
Matchup History: Using recent history to predict current Marlins games is misleading as Miami has improved drastically over the past couple of seasons. The Fish and Cubbies did not meet in 2020 but have played 14 times since the beginning of the 2018 season. The Cubs have won 11 of these 14 games – dominating by an average score of 6 to 2.9. The 2020 Cubs have not set the world on fire, but boast a much more talented and experienced roster than Miami.
Chicago White Sox – 35-25 Overall – 7-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 2-seed Oakland Athletics
Biggest Strength: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Jose Abreu all mash! Chicago ranks 3rd in the league in homeruns (96) and is tied for 5th in runs scored (306)/
Biggest Weakness: Inexperience – especially in the pitching staff.
Matchup History: The Sox are in the Central and Oakland is out West, so the two clubs did not meet in the 2020 regular season. These clubs have clashed 13 times over the past 2 seasons, however, with Oakland dominating Chicago. The Sox better come ready to play in the Bay! They have dropped 10 of their last 13 to Oakland – losing by an average score of 6.7 to 3.5. In their most recent meetings – 6 games in 2019 – Chicago was 1-5 – losing by a cumulative score of 32-8.
Cincinnati Reds – 31-29 Overall – 7-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 2-seed Atlanta Braves
Biggest Strength: An impressive pitching staff which ranks 8th in baseball in team ERA (3.89), 1st in K/9 (10.98), and 7th in homeruns allowed (1.2 per 9).
Biggest Weakness: They can’t hit.
Matchup History: The Reds and Braves did not meet in the 2020 regular season. These clubs have squared off 14 times over the past 2 seasons with the Reds taking 8 of the 14 matchups. On the runline, the Reds are immaculate – winning 11 of 13. Although the games are close (5 to 4.4), the Braves can’t seem to pull out the Ws against Cincy. Last season, the Reds won 4 of 7 against Atlanta. Each game was within 3 runs.
Toronto Blue Jays – 32-28 Overall – 8-Seed in American League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 1-seed Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest Strength: A young core that will continue to improve throughout the next several years.
Biggest Weakness: They aren’t quite there yet.
Matchup History: The Blue Jays faced Tampa 10 times this season and dropped 6 of those matchups. Nearly each game was extremely close – the average score being 4.8 to 4.4 in favor of Toronto. Despite scoring more runs in the season series, Toronto lost the majority of the games. 4 of the 10 games were decided by 1 run while 3 others were decided by 2 runs. Each game was within 3 runs, with the exception of 1 – a 12-4 thumping by Toronto.
Milwaukee Brewers – 29-31 Overall – 8-Seed in National League
Wild Card Matchup: vs 1-seed Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest Strength: Christian Yelich.
Biggest Weakness: They are a below-.500 team who snuck into the postseason and they have to play the league-best Dodgers … good luck!
Matchup History: The NL Central Brewers and NL West Dodgers did not meet in the regional 2020 regular season. The clubs have played each other competitively over the past 2 regular seasons, however – with the Dodgers taking 8 of the 14 games. Milwaukee has been one step behind LA but always within striking distance. Take away an ugly 21-5 beating and the Dodgers have outscored the Brewers by only 7 runs over their past 14 head-to-head meetings.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply