Ultimate 2020 MLB Playoffs Betting Guide

It’s back! My annual MLB Playoffs Betting Guide!

This is the most comprehensive MLB Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. Trust me, you will not find all of this information in one place anywhere else. I know because I checked.

Playoff baseball is a different beast. It is imperative we make informed decisions. All of my data searches are over the past 10 postseasons, which would take us back to the 2010 season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.

Most of the data I use is from the Killersports MLB Query tool. The MLB playoffs will be here before you know it. Let’s get after it!

Checking for Home-Field Advantage in the MLB Playoffs

Does home field matter in the MLB playoffs? It has to matter, right?

As I said earlier, it is important we always make informed decisions when wagering our hard-earned money. Let’s check the numbers and derive a definitive answer.

Keep in mind that home-field advantages may not exist during the 2020 MLB postseason as there may be a “playoff bubble” in which all games are played on neutral fields.

Home Teams on the Moneyline and Runline

I’ll start by exploring home winning percentages in the MLB playoffs. This first table shows the moneyline and runline win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 seasons.

Season	ML %	Avg ML	ML Profit	RL %	Avg RL	RL Profit
2019	45.9%	-133	-$692	37.8%	+112	-$900
2018	51.5%	-140	-$361	42.4%	+113	-$440
2017	71.1%	-138	$1,418	65.8%	+122	$1,845
2016	48.6%	-127	-$475	48.6%	+108	$154
2015	52.8%	-129	-$165	51.4%	+121	$485
2014	56.2%	-130	-$176	40.6%	+126	-$343
2013	60.5%	-120	$619	60.5%	+115	$1,328
2012	48.6%	-130	-$693	43.2%	+128	$9
2011	60.5%	-137	$352	50.0%	+139	$702
2010	40.6%	-129	-$1,088	37.5%	+123	-$762
Total	53.9%	-131	-$1,261	48.2%	+121	$2,078

Our 52.4% break-even point is for spreads, not moneylines and runlines. Even with a 53.9% winning percentage on the moneyline, home teams are not favorable bets because they are given average odds of (-131).

Conversely, 48.2% is very profitable on the runline because home teams are given (+121) odds.

The moneyline is -EV, but the runline is hot for home playoff teams over the past 10 years. These numbers fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year, but are very sturdy in the long term.

Road Teams on the Moneyline and Runline

Season	ML %	Avg ML	ML Profit	RL %	Avg RL	RL Profit
2019	54.1%	+119	$490	62.2%	-132	$600
2018	48.5%	+128	$198	57.6%	-133	$230
2017	28.9%	+126	-$1,534	34.2%	-143	-$2,245
2016	51.4%	+115	$324	51.4%	-121	-$367
2015	47.2%	+118	-$27	48.6%	-134	-$707
2014	43.8%	+119	-$23	59.4%	-140	$177
2013	39.5%	+110	-$786	39.5%	-128	-$1,552
2012	51.4%	+119	$461	56.8%	-145	-$201
2011	39.5%	+126	-$507	51.4%	-150	-$723
2010	59.4%	+118	$920	62.5%	-136	$611
Total	46.1%	+120	-$484	52.0%	-136	-$4,177

We should avoid betting road teams blindly in the MLB Playoffs. Over the past 10 postseasons, road teams have failed to turn profits on the moneyline or runline.

MLB Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs

This first table displays how favorites have fared both on the moneyline and the runline over the past 10 MLB postseasons.

Season	ML %	Avg ML	ML Profit	RL %	Avg RL	RL Profit
2019	56.8%	-163	-$298	48.6%	+126	$250
2018	51.5%	-151	-$571	36.4%	+131	-$580
2017	69.4%	-148	$1,097	63.9%	+125	$1,725
2016	60.0%	-147	$150	37.1%	+140	-$302
2015	51.4%	-145	-$636	48.6%	+145	$642
2014	43.8%	-137	-$1,191	28.1%	+152	-$865
2013	55.9%	-133	$16	44.1%	+156	$468
2012	41.7%	-141	-$1,415	36.1%	+142	-$386
2011	60.0%	-143	$97	41.2%	+150	$89
2010	46.9%	-140	-$786	37.5%	+146	-$399
Total	53.9%	-145	-$3,537	42.4%	+141	$642

Favorites had an excellent year on the moneyline in 2017 but have generally been terrible bets over the past decade. The runline is a better option if you get the urge to back favorites, but a $642 profit over 10 years isn’t great.

Because favorites have performed so poorly on the moneyline, we can expect the numbers to look favorable for underdogs over this same timespan.

Underdogs on the Moneyline and Runline

This table shows the moneyline and runline results for underdogs over the past 10 MLB postseasons.

Season	ML %	Avg ML	ML Profit	RL %	Avg RL	RL Profit
2019	43.2%	+149	$96	51.4%	-146	-$550
2018	48.5%	+140	$408	63.6%	-151	$370
2017	30.6%	+136	-$1,203	36.1%	-146	-$2,125
2016	40.0%	+136	-$301	62.9%	-153	$89
2015	48.6%	+134	$444	51.4%	-157	-$864
2014	56.2%	+127	$992	71.9%	-166	$699
2013	44.1%	+123	-$163	55.9%	-169	-$678
2012	58.3%	+130	$1,188	63.9%	-158	$194
2011	40.0%	+133	-$242	60.6%	-160	-$93
2010	53.1%	+130	$618	62.5%	-159	$248
Total	46.1%	+134	$1,837	57.7%	-156	-$2,710

Postseason underdogs are setting the world on fire on the moneyline. The only down year for these bets was 2017. Other than this one blip on the radar, moneyline dogs are money-printing machines.

We saw earlier that home teams are great runline bets in the MLB postseason. Now we’ve established the profitability of underdogs. Let’s put the two together and see what materializes.

MLB Playoffs: Betting Home Underdogs

When we looked at home vs road profits, home teams were -EV on the moneyline but extremely hot on the runline. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were far better. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home/road and fave/dog filters.

Season	ML	Avg ML	ML Profit	RL	Avg RL	RL Profit
2019	4-8	+139	-$229	4-8	-132	-$655
2018	4-4	+118	$85	5-3	-147	$40
2017	5-4	+111	$140	5-4	-115	$30
2016	5-9	+121	-$338	9-5	-146	$194
2015	6-5	+120	$207	6-5	-143	-$106
2014	6-2	+110	$478	6-2	-159	$247
2013	7-5	+111	$273	9-3	-157	$449
2012	4-2	+127	$291	4-2	-140	$135
2011	3-2	+110	$115	4-1	-152	$257
2010	4-6	+114	-$170	5-5	-143	-$216
Total	48-47 (50.5%)	+119	$852	57-38 (60.0%)	-143	$375

These ML and RL records for home dogs are both profitable. While these win rates won’t make you rich overnight, betting home dogs in the MLB postseason is a nice supplementary +EV play.

MLB Playoffs: Betting the Over/Under Run Total

Runlines and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff baseball. The run total can also be a lucrative bet. The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the runline/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which is easier for some to predict than winners and losers.

The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 MLB postseasons.

Postseason	Over %	Over Profit	Under %	Under Profit	Avg Total
2019	52.8%	-$6	47.2%	-$365	7.8
2018	45.2%	-$411	54.8%	$225	7.9
2017	48.6%	-$276	51.4%	-$50	7.8
2016	42.4%	-$753	57.6%	$360	7.4
2015	61.8%	$688	38.2%	-$1,046	7.3
2014	50.0%	-$130	50.0%	-$135	6.9
2013	57.1%	$340	42.9%	-$545	6.9
2012	52.8%	$100	47.2%	-$480	7.3
2011	58.8%	$465	41.2%	-$815	8.1
2010	41.4%	-$680	58.6%	$355	7.5
Total	51.3%	-$663	48.7%	-$2,496	7.5

There is no advantage to be gained just from betting the total blindly. Each side is below the magic number of 52.4%.

MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team Records

Some MLB teams just have a knack for winning playoff baseball games while others whither in the limelight and disappoint on an annual basis. I want to identify and distinguish these teams from one another.

This table contains data for each MLB team that is still playoff eligible. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ML and RL playoff records and profits since the 2010 postseason.

The Cardinals have played 70 playoff games over the past 10 years while the Marlins, Padres, and White Sox are potential 2020 playoff teams without playoff appearances in the past 10 seasons.

Team	# of Games	ML Record (Profits)	RL Record (Profits)
Astros	50	28-22 (-$177)	24-25 (-$103)
Athletics	13	4-9 (-$489)	6-7 (-$259)
Blue Jays	20	10-10 (-$504)	9-11 (-$27)
Braves	18	5-13 (-$889)	8-10 (-$430)
Brewers	22	11-11 ($68)	13-9 ($284)
Cardinals	70	35-35 ($410)	33-36 (-$1,085)
Cubs	37	19-18 (-$51)	14-23 (-$1,432)
Dodgers	66	33-33 (-$919)	26-40 (-$1,196)
Giants	53	36-17 ($2,441)	36-17 ($2,302)
Indians	24	12-12 ($198)	13-11 ($126)
Marlins	—	—	—
Padres	—	—	—
Phillies	14	7-7 (-$315)	7-7 ($150)
Rays	20	8-12 (-$294)	8-12 (-$548)
Reds	9	2-7 (-$554)	2-7 (-$681)
Twins	7	0-7 (-$700)	0-7 (-$885)
White Sox	—	—	—
Yankees	51	24-27 (-$548)	28-21 ($594)

There is plenty to look at in this table. I’ll highlight a few quick points:

• Although the Astros have appeared in many postseason games over the past decade, they are not profitable on the moneyline or runline. This is most likely because Houston is a large favorite in most of their games and must win at an unsustainably high rate to profit.
• The Cubs are near even on the moneyline but are terrible runline bets. This means Chicago must play in a lot of 1-run playoff games. Exciting to watch … tough on the bankroll.
• The Dodgers have played in many playoff games this decade but are -EV bets. Like the Astros, the Dodgers are large favorites in most of their games and must win nearly all of them in order to turn a profit. As you can see by the data, the Dodgers have merely split their postseason games this decade.
• The Giants are the most profitable postseason MLB team of the past decade. Fueled by their run of 3 World Series championships in 5 years, San Fran is up over $2,400 on the moneyline and over $2,300 on the runline. If the Giants do sneak into the 2020 postseason, they will be underdogs against whichever team they play. This bodes well for their profitability.

MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team HOME Records

I want to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason.

Keep in mind that home-field advantages may not exist during the 2020 MLB postseason as there may be a “playoff bubble” in which all games are played on neutral fields.

Team	# of Games	ML Record (Profits)	RL Record (Profits)
Astros	26	16-10 ($89)	13-13 ($427)
Athletics	7	3-4 (-$122)	4-3 ($37)
Blue Jays	11	6-5 (-$302)	5-6 ($100)
Braves	10	3-7 (-$524)	3-7 (-$558)
Brewers	12	8-4 ($368)	7-5 ($317)
Cardinals	33	20-13 ($680)	17-15 ($580)
Cubs	18	9-9 (-$169)	7-11 (-$385)
Dodgers	34	20-14 (-$7)	15-19 (-$15)
Giants	25	17-8 ($798)	15-10 ($1,089)
Indians	13	7-6 ($40)	7-6 ($320)
Marlins	—	—	—
Padres	—	—	—
Phillies	8	4-4 (-$280)	4-4 ($86)
Rays	9	3-6 (-$284)	3-6 (-$330)
Reds	4	0-4 (-$507)	0-4 (-$437)
Twins	3	0-3 (-$300)	0-3 (-$404)
White Sox	—	—	—
Yankees	27	15-12 ($25)	13-12 ($213)

Allow me to highlight a few quick points from this table, as well:

• The Astros perform very well at home in the playoffs. Hmm … it’s almost like they possess some sort of unfair advantage when at home.
• The Yankees are a tough out in the Bronx. They are profitable on both the moneyline and runline, but not by much.
• The Dodgers win a lot of home playoff games but are held back by extremely short lines. It’s nearly impossible to turn any sort of substantial profit when you need to win 80% of your games just to break even.
• The Giants – of course – are the most profitable MLB team to bet in home playoff games. If the Giants do sneak into the 2020 postseason, they will be underdogs against whichever team they play. This bodes well for their profitability.
• The Cardinals are the second-most profitable MLB team to bet in home playoff games. Moneyline or runline – St. Louis is a solid bet at home in October.
• The Brewers aren’t bad bets in home playoff games. The profits aren’t huge for Milwaukee but neither is the volume. An expanded postseason will give us a chance to see if Milwaukee can hold their own at home over a larger sample of games.

MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team ROAD Records

Here are each team’s recent road playoff numbers as well, again since 2010.

Keep in mind that home-field advantages may not exist during the 2020 MLB postseason as there may be a “playoff bubble” in which all games are played on neutral fields.

Team	# of Games	ML Record (Profits)	RL Record (Profits)
Astros	24	12-12 (-$266)	11-12 (-$530)
Athletics	6	1-5 (-$367)	2-4 (-$296)
Blue Jays	9	4-5 (-$202)	4-5 (-$127)
Braves	8	2-6 (-$365)	5-3 ($128)
Brewers	10	3-7 (-$300)	6-4 (-$33)
Cardinals	37	15-22 (-$270)	16-21 (-$1,665)
Cubs	19	10-9 ($118)	7-12 (-$1,047)
Dodgers	32	13-19 (-$912)	11-21 (-$1,181)
Giants	28	19-9 ($1,643)	21-7 ($1,213)
Indians	11	5-6 ($158)	6-5 (-$194)
Marlins	—	—	—
Padres	—	—	—
Phillies	6	3-3 (-$35)	3-3 ($64)
Rays	11	5-6 (-$10)	5-6 (-$218)
Reds	5	2-3 (-$47)	2-3 (-$244)
Twins	4	0-4 (-$400)	0-4 (-$481)
White Sox	—	—	—
Yankees	24	9-15 (-$573)	15-9 ($381)

MLB Playoffs – Games After Blowing Lead

This next system has been bleeding bookies dry since 2010. I figured that teams who blew a lead in a playoff game would likely come back the next game determined to get a win. I was correct.

Take a look at what teams have done in playoff games after blowing a lead they held for at least five innings the game prior:

Postseason	ML Record	ML Profit
2019	3-0	$315
2018	—	—
2017	1-0	$100
2016	1-0	$100
2015	2-1	$57
2014	1-0	$120
2013	0-1	-$135
2012	2-0	$200
2011	2-0	$270
2010	2-1	$135
Total	14-3	$1,162

The sample size is small, but that sample has produced amazing results – going 14-3 with a staggering 54.6% ROI since 2010.

MLB Playoffs – Home Teams in Games 6 & 7

To the average fan, high-pressure games late in a series can be seemingly unpredictable. Sharp bettors realize that strong trends exist in these games which can be capitalized on. While others are betting with their hearts, we know better and make picks with our brains.

The sample size is larger on this one, amassing 28 plays since the 2010 playoffs. The results of betting on home teams in games 6 or 7 of MLB playoff series are shown below:

Postseason	ML Record	ML Profit
2019	1-2	-$210
2018	1-1	$0
2017	5-1	$375
2016	1-2	-$82
2015	1-0	$125
2014	1-1	-$40
2013	3-0	$317
2012	2-0	$200
2011	3-1	$173
2010	1-1	-$60
Total	19-9	$798

This system wins big! The losing years are pocket change in comparison to the monster winning years.

This system has sustained an incredible 23.5% ROI since 2010. That type of return over a 10-year interval means we must be onto something here.

MLB Playoffs: Summary … TL;DR

Here is a bullet point rundown of the MLB playoff betting tips we learned today:

• Home teams have been terrible moneyline bets but excellent runline bets over the past decade
• Underdogs have been extremely good moneyline bets but -EV runline bets over the past decade
• Home underdogs are +EV on both the moneyline and runline
• There is no advantage to be found betting the total during the MLB postseason
• The San Francisco Giants have been the most profitable playoff team in baseball the past 10 years … and it isn’t even close
• The Giants, Indians, and Brewers have been profitable on both the moneyline and runline in postseason games since 2010. They are the only 3 teams in the 2020 postseason hunt to hold this distinction
• The Dodgers, Rays, Astros, Reds, and Braves have all been bleeding money over the past 10 seasons of postseason baseball
• MLB teams are excellent in their next postseason game after blowing a lead in which they led for at least 5 innings
• Always back the home team if the series goes to 6 or 7 games. Home teams have a 23.5% ROI on the moneyline in this spot since 2010.

If you have struggled this MLB season, let this guide be the remedy to turn your luck around. With the playoffs nearly upon us, we can take advantage of a few profitable MLB playoff betting trends to cash in big during the October madness.

Bet these trends as-is or use them as a foundation for deeper systems that generate even more return on your investment.

See you on top!